Recently I got a question from a newer student asking the following;
“Right now I’m short this pair. It’s in profit, but it just formed a pin bar against my trade before I hit my profit target. What should I do?”
This is a common question I get about what to do when you see a price action signal that is counter to your trade. The question by itself actually tells me a lot about the student and where they are at in their process (beginning, middle or more advanced).
My response was similar to the following;
“It is important to understand we are not pattern traders. We are price action traders. Being a pattern trader, as in trading pin bars, inside bars, engulfing bars, or fakey’s does not make us a price action trader.
Pin bars are not the death of trends. I can come up with about 50,000 examples of trends both intraday, or on the 4hr and daily time frames whereby the trends ran into a pin bar at a key level, then smashed right through it. I can also come up with thousands where they did the same and reversed.
‘Wait, but those were counter-trend pin bars, what about with trend pin bars?’
Same thing, I can come up with 50,000 of those that were with trend, and the market reversed the prevailing trend. I can also find you thousands that were with trend and worked out.
So what was the difference between the ones that did work out and ones that didn’t?
The key was the price action context around the pin bar. How the price action was leading up to the pin bar, and around it (the context of how the pin bar formed) is what will make that signals useful or not.”
This is why it is such a freshman idea and a complete fallacy to think all you need to trade successfully is 3 simple patterns (pin bars, engulfing bars, inside bars). All that + trading with trend at key levels and VOILA! You have your A+ setup and a profitable price action trade.
If it were only that simple (FYI – if it were, a lot more people would be profitable).
So how do you deal with a counter trend signal to your trade?
The answer is in reading the price action context around it. I will share four charts below to demonstrate the point clearly.
Exhibit A
Looking at the chart below, we can see towards the left a double touch off the level R1, then a break through it with a large breakout bar. The market falls heavily and you look to get long around A1 on the bottom right of the chart. Your trade is working out great, but you run into a pin bar + false break (A1) at the key resistance level R1.
Minions of the 50% retrace entry on the pin bar are salivating because they think this is a great chance to short as you have a pin bar + false break at a key level, and the 50% retrace is at the level.
Meanwhile, you being long back at A1 see this pin bar and are worried about the market reversing thinking the move is over, so you exit.
Turns out both of you were wrong (see chart below)
Exhibit B (later on in the same chart)
In this next chart below which is only a couple days later on the same pair, price eventually falls back to the same key level where we bought at A1 prior. It forms a consolidation just above it, then a pin bar + false break.
Great! Time to get in on the 50% retrace entry yes as its at a key level. Or, the other option touted is to get long on a break of the pin bar high yes? Either way, this is an A+ setup right since the pair is in a range and formed a pin bar at a key level right?
See the next chart below
Turns out both pin bar entries failed, even though it was at a key level while price action was in a range. Now imagine you were long around the top of this chart, and ran into this counter-trend pin bar signal at a key level. You probably would have taken profit.
But by not understanding the price action context around the level, you would have missed out on a ton of profit, almost double your profit leading up to that pin bar.
This is why its important to graduate beyond the freshman concepts of trading pin bars, inside bars, engulfing bars, fakey’s, or whatever price action patterns. If trading were that easy, as in trading with the trend + key levels + price action signal = profitable trading, then a lot more people would be making money.
The difference between knowing when to take those signals is in learning to read the context and order flow behind the price action. Pin bars are not the death of trends. Nor are the other patterns. In isolation, or even with trend analysis + key level analysis does not make it a good trade.
Thus my answer to this students question about what to do when you see a counter trend price action signal to your trade – my response is to understand the order flow and price action context around that signal. When you begin to do this, your trading will start to turn. You will find yourself winning more trades, and holding onto trades longer. And while others are buying this last pin bar – you are selling it, and you’ll understand why.
Tag Archive for: A+ setups
I had an interesting conversation with a developing trader about avoiding losses in forex trading. After discussing the subject with them for a few mins, I realized there seems to be a great misunderstanding about trading and losses. This is not surprising as there is a lot of sophomore information out there about these A+ setups, that good setups only occur on higher time frames, that you should only take these high quality signals. But this misses an essential point of trading and something that all professional traders understand.
The A+ Setups Myth
Beginning traders try to ‘avoid losses’ by waiting for these ‘A+ setups, trading like a sniper stuff‘. This is a big reason why they fail to make money. To trade successfully, you have to trade and think in probabilities. You cannot ‘avoid’ losses in forex trading. This fear, this rationalization & desire to avoid the inevitable, actually takes you away from a system that has an edge and understanding what is a high quality signal.
A great example of this is how a beginning trader wants to ‘avoid’ a loss by waiting for some perfect setup, as if trading is a fashion contest. They fear losing and thus rationalize not trading this setup which may have a lesser probability hit rate. But here is where so many beginning traders go wrong and what you want to avoid.
Understand What An Edge Is
If a system has a 33% win rate, this may seem low, but if it always hits a 4x target, (e.g. you risk 50 pips to get 200), then this system has an ‘edge’ and makes money over time. By waiting for these ‘A+ setups‘ and trying to ‘trade like a sniper‘, you avoid the trade because it is not A+ or high probability.
What this actually does is separate you from a system that is profitable over time, that has a mathematical edge, and makes money. Yet if you ‘avoid’ this trade because you want to ‘avoid losses’, then you are passing up a profitable equity curve which could provide consistent profits over time. It is critical to understand your edge, and trade it when it presents an opportunity.
But here is another crucial point about this topic.
You cannot ‘avoid’ losses at all in trading. Losses are part of the forex trading game. They are something you will have to get comfortable with, and not identify with, or value yourself based on the latest win or loss. Trading is really about getting comfortable with yourself, and getting comfortable with losses. They are going to happen just like the sun will rise and set.
Avoid the Misconception, Not Losses
Trying to ‘avoid’ that which is unavoidable will create a limiting belief in your head that only interferes with your trading. Understand that in reality, losses get you closer to your next win as you let the edge play out.
Don’t pass up an edge/system which makes money, simply to avoid the fear and psychological discomfort of the loss (which is really up to you how you experience them). Don’t fall for this ‘A+ setup, trade like a sniper motto‘, which is really a misunderstanding of trading professionally, and a sophomore understanding of it at best. So time to start thinking about trading on a new level, and avoiding the misconceptions about trading, not the losses.
If anything, you should avoid the mistake of thinking you can avoid losses, by only waiting for these magical A+ setups.
There is really nothing to avoid in trading, which is more about getting comfortable with uncertainty, and understanding losses are part of the game. When you start to do this, you will find yourself taking trades less personally, and executing with greater discipline, lesser emotions, and a clearer perspective on the what it is to trade professionally.
The A+ Setups, The Trades That ‘Kick You In The Chin’
There is one mistake I see beginning traders constantly making. They wait on the sidelines for days, waiting for A+ setups, waiting for setups that ‘kick them in the chin‘, or ‘knock them over the head‘.
If you need to get kicked in the chin or knocked over the head to act, perhaps you should consider MMA, not trading. If you need this to actually do something – you really are missing the most basic thing of being a successful trader.
Your job is not to sit there like Johnny Bench waiting for the delivery of the perfect pitch. Your job is to think in probabilities, to think in numbers and expectancy. This is one advantage for becoming a better trader by learning how to play poker.
Positive Expectancy
In poker, they have this rule about positive expectancy. It basically involves not waiting for your power hands to arrive before you play. You should [pay your medium strength hands in the right environment because they have positive expectancy.
Sure, you can wait for AA or AK suited before you get involved in the pot, but you are passing up many hands that make money in the long term. You are passing up hands that have positive expectancy. This doctrine about waiting for A+ setups is a fallacy espoused by people who really do not understand trading. It is important to remember trading is not a fashion contest.
Trading is thinking in probabilities and finding setups that make money over 100, 1,000 or 10,000x.
You have to understand, that you may not make money on the trade right now, or even the next one, but if it makes money over the long run (has positive expectancy) then you need to pull the trigger.
Beginning Traders vs. Professional Traders
Beginning traders make the mistake of waiting for setups which have 60 or 70+% accuracy, trading at 1:1 or 2:1 reward to risk ratios. Sure…mathematically these will make money, but guess what – did you know you could have a system which is 35% accurate which still makes money (and a lot of it) over time?
Although losing 65 trades out of 100 may seem daunting, a professional trader doesn’t skip these trades – because they know they make money. This is the difference between a beginning trader and a professional – they think in probabilities. They are comfortable with uncertainty, because they trust the process.
Breaking It Down
To look at it mathematically, if you take 100 trades at 35% accuracy, you win 35 and lose 65. Now if you always target 3x your risk (meaning if you risk 50 pips, you target 150 pips each time), this system will make money. Although you may lose the next 6-7 trades, all you need to do is win 3 or more, and you’ll make money over those 10 trades.
This is the difference between a professional & beginning trader. They understand the risk of ruin principle, and are not worried whether they will win the next trade. Beginning traders rationalize losing the next 6-7 trades as being bad for their overall trading, when mathematically you can still make money.
What Separates Beginning Traders from Professional Traders
Professional traders are not worried about the next trade winning or losing. What they care about is making money long term and over time. They want to maximize their profits by playing the mathematics – by thinking in probabilities.
Although beginning traders hang their entire psychology, confidence and performance on the next trade – you have to look at the next one as just one free throw in the thousands you will make over time.
A Single Grain of Sand & Your Positive Sloping Equity Curve
One way to relate to an individual trade is to see how really unimportant one trade is in the grand scheme of things. A good visual for this is – if you are currently holding a hand full of sand you picked up from the beach – that each trade is like a single grain of sand.
If you are using proper risk management and thinking in probabilities, that one grain of sand is really insignificant. Put them all together, and it adds up to something more substantial, but by itself, it really means very little.
Now imagine your positive upward sloping equity curve over the next few years, with hundreds of trades per year under your belt. That one grain of sand really means nothing in the entire equity curve of profitability. It’s just a tiny data point in a very large set.
After a Long Trading Career
If you can really grasp this, I guarantee after you have a long trading history with hundreds (if not thousands) of trades under your belt, one little trade will not mean anything to you. But what will matter, is if you pass up trades that have positive expectancy with lesser accuracy, you may lose massive profits over time.
Thus make sure to let go of whether the next trade will be a winner or a loser. Try not to invest too much energy in this. Start to think like a professional, and pull the trigger whether your next setup has high or low accuracy. If your price action strategy has positive expectancy, then that is what you need to know. When you do, you’ll realize a huge piece of the missing puzzle as you’ve started to think like a professional, and started to think in probabilities.