Tag Archive for: corrective price action

Chris Capre’s current open price action and ichimoku trades: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDMXN, USDJPY, BIR, TLS

NOTE: I’ve never met a struggling trader that hasn’t skipped steps. Don’t make that mistake. Read my article The 4 Stages of Becoming A Millionaire Trader to avoid this.

NZDUSD – Rejected At Resistance, Now Testing Support (Daily chart)

Price Action Context

For now, despite 2 solid attempts, bulls have not been able to successfully clear 0.69 which is the top of a multi-year S/R zone. Instead, bears again stepped in, heavily rejecting the bullish attack and price is now back testing the LT support a second time after the false break in early January.

forex-nzdusd-key-support-level-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

If this LT support holds, a move back up towards 0.69 is likely whilst a break below would open up for a possible bearish continuation towards 0.65.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 0.6920 – 0.6970
S: 0.6680 – 0.6730

Stay tuned to the members daily trade ideas for updates.

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EURGBP – LT Range Still In Play But Expanding (Daily chart)

Price Action Context

Despite the heavy bearish assault on the LT support, bulls stepped in at the lows from April last year and were able to defend the support zone for now. With LT volatility increasing, it seems the range is expanding both to the up- and downside which made us adjust our S/R zones slightly.

forex-eurgbp-trade-setups-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

Non-directional LT price action since October 2017. Neutral bias while trading within this range and traders can look for potential trading opportunities at the extremes (top/bottom) of this range until it breaks.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 0.9000 – 0.9100
S: 0.8620 – 0.8700

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Hang Seng 50 – Pullback To LT Key S/R Zone (Weekly chart)

Price Action Context

LT exhaustion into 33 350 followed by impulsive selling and corrective price action. The corrective structure got broken to the downside in the end of June last year, followed by continued selling towards 25 000. After putting in a rough double bottom, buyers came back and have now pushed price all the way back up to the LT S/R zone, a zone that coincides with a KSP from Q2 2015.

hang-seng-50-trade-ideas-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

LT bias bearish and sellers can look for potential trading opportunities around the LT S/R zone.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 28 200 – 29 350
S: 24 400 – 25 400

If I had to follow only one simple rule of price action, it would be to understand impulsive and corrective price action, and if I could only trade one type of move, it would be impulsive moves hands down. They offer the most profit potential, communicate where the institutional players are buying and selling, whether they are buying or selling, and what the dominant trend is.

This is not to say one cannot make money trading counter-trend, but that far more money and profit will be had trading with the trend, but to be more specific – trading impulsive moves.

The Base of the Pyramid

If I had to look at price action as a structure, it would be a pyramid, with the base being how price action is a reflection of order flow (particularly executed transactions). The next part (or level above) from that base would be understanding price action through the lens of impulsive vs. corrective moves.

I will briefly describe what impulsive and corrective moves are, giving the key characteristics of each type of move. Then I will discuss what they generally communicate from an order flow perspective. After this I will talk about what is the general pattern they will form, and how you can use this for trading impulsive moves.

What Is An Impulsive Move?

An impulsive move is one whereby the market moves quite strongly or heavily in on direction, covering a great distance in a short period of time. These moves tell you when the imbalance between the buyers and sellers is really strong and there is heavy participation from the institutional side.

Logically, more money can be made during these impulsive moves, as they cover more points or pips in less time. They are generally more volatile, and thus provide us with great opportunities to get more R (reward) with less risk since the market will stretch more easily in one direction. But no matter what, we want to be trading with these moves as much as possible, not against them.

Three Characteristics

Impulsive moves tend to have three characteristics common among all of them. These three can help clue you in to when an impulsive move is starting, or in play. They are;

  1. Large Candles (bodies)
  2. Mostly of one color (blue/bullish, or red/bearish)
  3. Closes towards highs/lows of the move

Let’s examine all three points.

1) Large Candles communicate to us there is strong participation and order flow behind this particular candle. Strong imbalances during a candle will translate into larger candles than the norm. When you see large candles forming consistently in one direction, they indicate strong order flow behind them from the institutional side. Since the larger players are behind them, they give us a clue of the direction we want to take, essentially surfing the waves they (institutional) are creating. Take a look at an example below.

Image 1.1 – EURUSD 1hr Chart
impulsive price action EURUSD 1hr chart 2ndskiestrading.com

Notice how in this chart, the candles that stand out the most are the red ones, particularly the ones towards the top left? They are the largest in this entire series, communicating strong order flow behind them.

In fact, if you look at candles 1-8, all but the blue doji in the middle are solid in size. Yet candles 9-17 are all contained within the highs and the lows of last 2-3 candles in this down leg, communicating weak order flow and participation behind them.

As a whole, impulsive moves tend to have large candles (bodies and wicks) behind them.

2) Mostly of One Color – this ingredient is also common among impulsive moves as it communicates something critical to us – time. More specifically, how the bulls or bears were able to maintain control of the price action over time.

In the chart above from image 1.1, you will notice in the down leg, there is only 1 blue candle, meaning for 8 out of 9hrs, the bears had complete control of the market (almost one full trading session).

By maintaining control over time, the market is communicating who is the more dominant side because they are not allowing the other to take control of a candle for that time period. The greater the imbalance is between the bulls and bears over time, the greater the dominance is from either the bull or bear side of the market.

It is important to look at price action not just based on structure of the candles, which is one dimensional. Price doesn’t just move in a vacuum, it moves in time, and HOW price moves over time can communicate a lot of information to us as traders.

3) Closes Towards the Highs/Lows of the Move – If you think about it, when the market is in a strong trending move, let’s say using a 4hr chart, and the candle that closed in the direction of the trend (in this case uptrend) has a very small wick, thus a strong close towards the highs, what does that communicate?

It should communicate that there is very little profit taking from the players behind that candle. If they were worried going into the close of that candle about an upcoming resistance level holding, or perhaps the bears may take control of the market, they would likely close their position, or take profits right before the candle closed.

But when you have a strong close with a very small wick, this usually indicates very little profit taking, thus a confidence the move will likely continue. This is highly useful to us as traders, and will be common among impulsive moves like in the chart below.

Image 1.2 GBPUSD 4hr Chart
impulsive price action GBPUSD 4hr chart 2ndskiestrading.com


Starting with the top left of the chart using candles 1-4, the price action moves in a sideways corrective fashion until candle 5, which if you notice, increases in size tremendously (rule #1 of impulsive moves). From here, price continues on selling for the next 9 candles, 10 total in a row, or 40hrs of selling (rule #2 of impulsive moves).

But looking at the candle closes, you can see most of them are towards the lows, showing very little profit taking along the way, thus suggesting likely continuation.

Only until candle 11 do we get a strong rejection, and from here price then moves sideways in a corrective fashion until candle 16. But what happens at candle 17?  The candle expands (rule #1) telling us the trend will likely continue.

So these are three examples of the common characteristics of impulsive price action moves.

What About Corrective Moves?

The good thing about corrective moves is they are easy to spot, since they have the inverse characteristics of impulsive moves. Meaning, they tend to have;

  1. Smaller Candles
  2. Greater mix between red/blue or bull/bear candles
  3. Closes more towards the middle with larger wicks

Thus, if you apply the logic of impulsive moves, you can easily understand and identify corrective moves.

How Do They Relate to Each Other?

Generally, impulsive and corrective moves tend to have a common pattern or dance with each other.  The general pattern that tends to play out between them is the following;

1) Impulsive moves about 75% of the time are followed by corrective moves.  These corrective moves can either be horizontal, slightly against the impulsive move, or even slightly in the same direction, but they denote a change in the order flow and participation.

2) 75% of the time, these corrective moves are followed by impulsive moves in the same direction as the original impulsive move.  Why?

Because those who are in control, rarely give up control unless encountering a strong counter-trend force.  Even then, they usually make a second attempt to take out a recent swing high or low before giving up.

Only when they fail a second time will they usually exit the market, either waiting for a new chance to get in on a pullback, or reset completely.  This is why V-Bottoms are quite rare and only form about 10% of the time.  Usually there is a 2nd bottom, which is could be a LL (lower low), HL (higher low) or a similar low.

3) This series between the impulsive vs. corrective moves will generally continue until the market encounters a counter-trend impulsive move, which usually translates to an equal or greater force on the opposing side of the market.  Very similar to Newton’s Laws of Motion about an object in motion will stay in motion until acted upon another object with equal or greater force.

Let’s look at an example below.

Image 1.3 AUDUSD 4hr Chart
impulsive and corrective price action series AUDUSD 4hr Chart 2ndskiestrading.com

Glancing at the chart above starting with the bottom left at move A, you can see how it was an impulsive move, followed by a corrective move (B).  This series continued until…it hit a counter-trend impulsive move in G.  It was only until here did the bulls finally relent control as the opposing bears took control of the price action with the bulls likely taking profit or exiting all together, especially after the low point from move D was taken out.  Ironically, what followed move G, was a corrective move after, followed by the bears continuing the down-leg.

An Example Trading Impulsive Moves

Today gave a really good example trading an impulsive move. Gold was a perfect example of a textbook impulsive-corrective series, offering a great setup to go short for a large reward to risk play.

Take a look at the chart below which is the 1hr chart on Gold. Starting with the top left of the chart, we can see a consolidation over line A which is a corrective move.  Then at candle 1, we have more selling in one hour than total buying for the last seven, which starts an impulsive leg down at B, selling off about $25 in 10hrs.

At candle 2, we see a corrective move (C) whereby price climbs about $8 in 12hrs, so less than 1/3 the climb from move B which took more time.  This is a clear example of how its less profitable to trade counter-trend than with trend.  This is not to say we cannot trade counter-trend, but there is far less money to be made.

Image 1.4 Gold 1hr Chart
impulsive corrective price action trading 2ndskiestrading.com oct 15th

The corrective move at C ends with a pin bar rejection just $.50 below the 20ema, then starts another impulsive leg down at 4, dropping over $18 in 3hrs, also ending with a large pin bar.  I actually bought off the lows and made a quick profit, but there was far more profit to be made in less time selling from 3 or 4, then buying off of 5.

In terms of knowing whether to buy or sell, if you can learn to find an impulsive move, followed by a weak corrective move, often times that corrective move will offer a pullback setup into the 20ema or a prior support/resistance level.  These offer high probability low risk high reward setups.  Anyone selling the pin bar rejection at 3, or the pullback into the 20ema at 4, with a tight stop above the 20ema, targeting either the low at 2, or waiting for the pin bar close at 5 would have made anywhere from a 3:1 reward to risk, up to 12:1 reward to risk.

These opportunities show up in the market all the time, and if you can learn to read them, you can make a considerable profit by trading with the institutions impulsive buying or selling.  This is why it is critical to learn to read these moves, as they will help you not only trade in the right direction, but find highly profitable setups.

In Summary

This is just an introduction to how I approach price action and how I use this model as a base for understanding price action.  When you can learn to read impulsive and corrective moves, you will find they are highly effective for many things, such as;

  • finding the right direction
  • staying in the trend
  • spotting great pullback opportunities to get back in with trend
  • knowing when the market will continue and when the market is likely to reverse
  • how to find some of the more profitable moves in the market (impulsive)
  • knowing who is in control of the market
    and more…

There are many other facets and subtleties to trading impulsive and corrective price action, but this is a good introduction to my base theory and model for trading price action.  If you can learn to spot the impulsive and corrective moves in the market, they can greatly enhance the odds of your trades along with helping you spot key characteristics in the markets.

To learn more about trading impulsive and corrective price action, visit the Trading Masterclass.

Today I am going to give a lesson on how to find some of the best support and resistance levels in the market.  If I had to say – I think there are three types which are the best support and resistance levels you could find.  But it would take a long time to go into each type, what are the characteristics of each, what they mean from an order flow perspective, and how to trade each type.

So I am going to cover in today’s lesson, what are some of the most critical variables to look for when evaluating support and resistance levels.  If you can learn to spot these levels, read the price action and key variables before the market reaches these levels, you will greatly enhance your trading, by finding better entries, knowing how the market is likely to react off a level, and how to increase the probability of your trades.

By first learning to read these key variables which I will list below, they will provide you with a lot of information in terms of;
-how the order flow is relating to them
-how these levels will improve the probability your trade or rule based price action system
-how you can trade these key levels 

Note: I want to hear your feedback on this lesson, like what key points stood out for you, what you found useful, how you can apply this to your trading, or…even if you want to throw tomatoes at me, I want to hear your comments 🙂

I will start this lesson by talking about what are some key things to look for when evaluating support and resistance levels.  I will then describe with some details how each variable informs you of the order flow behind the price action.  Then I will go over some basic methods of how you can trade them.  I will also give examples to demonstrate how these elements work, then end with a brief overview of what we covered.

 

Key Things To Evaluate Support and Resistance Levels

If I had to list what are the key things I use to evaluate support and resistance levels, it would be the following;

1) How price reacted to this level in the past (held, became a breakout – pullback level, bounced violently or timidly off of it)
2) How significant is it (lower time frame, higher time frame, held for how long?)
3) How is price reacting or responding to it now
4) What is the speed or impulsiveness price is approaching it now
5) What is the price action context prior to this level

All of these things communicate information to me about the uniqueness of this level, how the buyers/sellers reacted towards this level in the past, how likely they will respond to it in the future, and what they are most likely to do at this level.

 

Zones & Areas

It should be noted that I do not consider support and resistance levels to be lines in the sand, but more of a ‘zone‘ or ‘area‘.  That means I do not consider a resistance level to be one price, but likely several pips on either side.  This could be due to differences in price feed, server time, what other traders think of that level, and how they would play it.

A scalper will more likely get as tight to the level as possible, but scalping orders rarely are large in volume or market movers.  However, a swing trader or large institution will likely be getting in at several levels, and the level you might be spotting may be one of them they are placing a large order at.

Because of this and all the different ways institutional players relate to these levels, support and resistance levels for me are zones or areas which could be anywhere from a few pips wide to 10+, maybe more depending upon the time frame the level relates to.

Obviously a level from a weekly time frame over years would have a little more play then an intraday level on the 1hr chart so take this into consideration.

 

What Each Variable Communicates

Although I could spend an entire treatise writing about all the things each variable above communicates, I will go over the key points here.

1) How Price Reacted To This Level In The Past – this is a big one as it tells me what the major players thought of this level.  Was the pair highly over/under valued here and it produced a violent reaction in the past?  If so, then the first time it comes back to this level, we can expect a strong reaction.  Why?

If the reaction off a level was fast, that translates into heavy buying/selling with some large player initiating the rejection.  This is followed by other players quickly rushing in to get as close to that price as possible, essentially chasing for the best price, but agreeing with the initial rejection.  These levels are defended with a lot of money, and if price does not come back for some time because it traveled fast and furious off this level, then the next time it gets there (especially if it’s the first time back), expect a strong reaction.

Exhibit A – Gold Daily Chart
best support and resistance levels gold chart 1 2ndskiestrading.com

When gold sold off massively due to huge margin increases by the metals exchanges, it crumbled hard and everyone was wondering where the bottom was.  It found it eventually at $1532 where in one day, it opened at $1640, jumped up $23, dropped $130, then bounced $96 from the lows which was quite an amazing rejection inside one day.  This is a violent reaction, so traders were definitely taking notice of it the next time it approached this level.  Can you guess what happened when it got there again?

 

Second Approach Gold Chart
best support and resistance levels gold chart 2 2ndskiestrading.com

As you can see, price held this level with a tiny breach, then bounced the next 4 days in a row, suggesting strong follow up buying on this rejection.  The first time back usually is a slightly lesser bounce since many know of the level, and thus less traders are trapped (or surprised) from a violent rejection the first time around.  But usually, this level will hold.

Remember, this is one scenario of how price has related to it in the past.  All the other types of reactions communicate a different story.

2) How Significant Is It (lower time frame, higher time frame, etc) – this really has to do with time as all support and resistance levels have what I call a ‘time degradation‘ to them.  Simply put, traders have a memory, but they are more inclined to take recent information as more valuable then information a while ago, especially if they are short term traders.  Generally, higher time frame levels will dominate and last longer than lower time frame levels.  Also, when possible, I’m more interested in drawing levels that are more likely to maintain the trend as that is the more probable scenario.  I particularly relate to these when reading the impulsive vs. corrective moves in the market.

For more information about understanding impulsive vs. corrective moves, make sure to watch the video here.

But once you have established the trend according to the impulsive vs. corrective series, look for breakout pullback level where the trend continued, or major swing highs/lows where the trend paused and pulled back to.  These will often present great opportunities to get in with trend.

3) How Price is Reacting To It Now – Is price closing on a support level, and just sitting there, with smaller and smaller bounces off it? If so, a breakout through the level is more likely as there is no strong buyers able to push back, and the sellers continue to squeeze them out of the market.  Was there a strong pin bar reversal off this level?  If so, it could be telling you it will likely hold on a second attempt and start a reversal, hence look for an entry close to the level.  How price reacts to the level in the moment can tell you if it’s likely to hold or not, but this analysis should be done before it reaches the level.

Often times the market will demonstrate a price action reversal signal at these levels.  Keep in mind, this is the ‘effect‘ of how players responded to the level, not the cause.  Order flow was the initial cause, and the level was the location.  Everything else was a response to the initial reaction off this level.  Hence these price action triggers are often ‘secondary entries’ (or sub-optimal) regarding the level.  Sometimes a price action trigger, say a pin bar on a 4hr chart can be an engulfing or piercing bar on a 1hr chart.  So sometimes it helps to look at a lower time frame to see what the more micro responses off this level are, or what the price action context was leading up to it.

But no matter what, there will always be clues as to what the major players are doing at this level, and what the more likely scenario is.  Look for impulsiveness (strength) off the level, or weakness (corrective price action) off this level for initial clues.

4) What Is The Speed Or Impulsiveness Price Is Approaching The Level – this will really tell you a great deal of information whether a level is likely to hold or not.  If you are trading with trend, and with the move when it is approaching a level, how strong the move is heading into it, and what is the underlying characteristics behind the price action (speed, acceleration, etc), will tell you what is more probable.

If a level is an intraday level, or one from only a day ago, a really impulsive move is likely to break through it. If it’s a daily low or high, or a level that held for a week or longer, it will have a better chance of holding. Think of it like a moving object.  Consider the size of the object in relationship to what the obstacle in its way is.  Normally, force x acceleration (& mass) will tell us whether the obstacle ahead will cave or not. Unfortunately, we do not have exact information about the orders at a level, such as the number and size of them which would equate to mass and volume of the object.  Level 2 quotes would help in this fashion, but if you don’t have that, then what?

Why not use the other principles above, such as;
-how did price react there in the past
-how significant is it
-how is price reacting to it on first touch

Weigh those against the force, or impulsiveness of the move, and you’ll be able to get a better idea.

 

A good example would be the following chart below of the AUD/USD on the daily time frame
best support and resistance levels 2ndskiestrading.com AUDUSD chart 1

Price approaches the level with some volatility, as there are solid moves on both sides of the fence with bears maintaining control on the way down.  Price bounces off the level with a piercing pattern and then a second attempt forming a pin bar reversal.  But then after a small retrace, price attacks the level with vigor, selling off 4 days in a row, taking out the last 13 days gains.  Does this resonate strength to you?  Do you think it will break?  See the chart below

Exhibit B
best support and resistance levels 2ndskiestrading.com AUDUSD chart 2

As you can see, price was exhibiting a lot of strength and impulsiveness heading into the support level. There were definitely some clues ahead of time this was going to break.  Such as how price barely lifted off the level each time, and attacked it twice without ever gaining much ground to the upside.

Keep in mind, the trend was already down leading up to it, so with trend traders used these pullbacks to get back in the trend.  The last time they said enough is enough, and went to take out the barriers at this level.  The buyers at the support level likely exhausted themselves on the first two rejections which failed to gain traction.

Putting all these components together would have communicated a breakout was likely, which would have helped your current short, or give you a second opportunity to get back in on a textbook breakout pullback setup for a high probability-low risk trade.

 

In Summary

So there you have a few key variables to look for in finding the best support and resistance levels. Remember, price action patterns form at these levels and are the ‘effect‘, not the cause of the move. They do communicate information to us as traders, what we are looking for is the price action context before we reach these key support and resistance levels.  Hence, it is these key levels where orders are being placed first.

Thus, by learning how to read the price action and the key variables I listed above, you can greatly improve your ability to spot good setups, improve your entries, placing trades where weak players are getting in, and the stronger players are looking to enter.

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