Tag Archive for: daily and 4hr strategies

I recently got a daily forex trading plan from a new student and eager beaver who asked for some help with their plan. The moment I opened it, I realized it was incomplete and needed work. To be fair, they had gotten this template from another course, so cannot fault the student.

I generally suggest having two trading plans:

  1. The Day-to-Day Trading Plan which includes your daily procedures
  2. Your Business Trading Plan

What we’ll be focusing on here is related to #1 above. Below is the general outline of their current forex trade plan, which I’ll go over, show you what needs to be changed, and what is missing.

Their Current Trading Plan

  1. Introduction
  2. Price Action Signals to Trade
  3. Rating a Trade
  4. Time Frames
  5. Pairs/Instruments to Trade
  6. Risk-Reward Ratio
  7. # of Positions
  8. Position Sizing
  9. Stop Loss & Take Profit Rules
  10. Rules for Entry
  11. News Events
  12. Documentation
  13. Losing Trades

Do you see anything confusing, missing, or out of place here?

trading plan 2ndskiesforex

 

What I Would Change

#1: Introduction – I think this was a good start. However, two things in this introduction stood out;

a) the opening statement, ‘The goal of this plan is to avoid emotion-based trading
b) the trading plan may be adjusted, and the rules edited

Lets start with A – If the goal of the trading plan is to ‘avoid emotion based trading‘, the current plan only helps for that day, but doesn’t get at the root cause of ‘emotion based trading‘.

Where should the real work be done for this? Prior to any trading, and in the ‘training’ phase! How? Proper training, building your sub-conscious skill set, and removing limiting beliefs.

For B – this is fine to allow the trading plan to be adjusted, but how often? The trading plan should be an evolving document as your level develops and grows as a trader. But put a time factor to this and stick with it.

I would have in the introduction why I am trading, what I am trying to achieve and what my daily goals are. More on this later.

#2: Price Action Signals to Trade – A military general doesn’t start their plan with tactics. They take all the information in to get a broad picture – i.e. the ‘context‘. In trading, this relates to understanding the price action context first. So this section needs to be later in the plan.

What would I put here? Pre-trading preparation, i.e. how will you prepare for each trading day (physically, mentally, market analysis, etc).

#3: Rating a Trade – We haven’t even gotten to our price action context first. This comes before rating a trade for quality. So this should be done here, starting with our top down analysis, how we find the correct context, then go from here.

NOTE: In this template from the other course, their highest point rating for a trade was ‘big size‘ for the signal bar.

Now let me get this straight – the size of the 1-2 bar pattern, is given the most importance? One bar out of the 30-50+ bars which comprise the validity of the signal?

confusion about trading
Seems like a confusion to me on what price action is about. Yet ‘Trading with the Trend’ is 5th on their list? How does one bar by itself, have greater value than the entire trend and order flow to this point?

Lastly, the 13-pt rating list completely rules out intra-day trading. A trading plan should be flexible enough to incorporate both.

# 4 & 5: Time Frames – by now, we are too far ahead of ourselves with this plan. Once we know the context, only then can we know the tactics (price action strategies) to use. We cover this in more detail with our course members.

One other thing about this is the fallacy that the time frame is more important than the instrument you trade. Should be the other way around.

Pairs/Instruments to Trade – Although this is completely necessary, I think in one section you can have the pairs/time frames you are trading.

# 6, 7 & 8: Risk-Reward Ratio/# of Positions/Position Sizing – The first one is completely irrelevant by itself without understanding the Risk of Ruin.

You can use my risk of ruin calculator to find yours. For more information on the risk of ruin formula, click on the link above.

Number of Positions – kind of irrelevant. Although you may have a fixed % equity risk per trade, what if you start your day, and realize 4-5 high quality setups on deck?

fixed percent equity risk model superior than fixed dollar amount graph 1 2ndskiesforex

My suggestion is to have a max risk per day, and per trade. If your max risk per day is say 5%, and you spot 5 trade setups, then you can risk 1% per trade. If only 2, then you can risk 2.5% per trade. As long as you keep the risk of ruin at zero, the number of positions should not be limited IMO.

Position Sizing – Can all be addressed under one section, which I’d label ‘Risk Management

# 9 & 10 & 13: SL & TP Rules/Rules for Entry – should be addressed in the strategy itself.

#11: News Events – I’d say make this part of the ‘pre-trading preparation‘, under the ‘market analysis‘ preparation.

#12: Documentation/Journal – I agree this needs to be part of your forex trade plan. But there is nothing in here about reviewing your trades, or end of the trading week analysis. Monthly, quarterly and yearly reviews would be recommended.

What About Training?

I generally recommend having a completely separate plan for training, very much like professional athletes have practice/training routines, which are separate from game-day preparation. Trading should be no different.

For those trading higher time frames like daily and 4hr strategies, I’d recommend using your non-trading time for practice/training. This is not just demo trading, reading books, or studying course material. We suggest going beyond this with live forward simulation trading, just like fighter pilots do simulators, or baseball players have batting practice.

practicing forex trading 2ndskiesforex

Our favorite tool for this is Forex Tester 2, which allows you to go back in time, and then live forward trade it bar by bar as if they were appearing in real time.

You can get a $50 discount on Forex Tester 2 by clicking here.

In Summary

As you can see, the template they were working with was quite confusing, lacking key things, and out of order. Had I been working off that trading plan and not known better, I would be approaching the market incorrectly every day, missing a dearth of things.

It is important to understand a professional trader will see things on a more sophisticated level than your traditional 1-2 bar pattern trader. Professionals, by default, can recognize opportunities beginning traders will not, like a good poker player can make money on more hands than a weaker one. This also goes for one’s daily forex trading plan, so having a more evolved one will give you a greater edge.

professional traders 2ndskiesforex
Ask yourself, how sophisticated is your trading plan? Does it feel unorganized, confusing and incomplete like the first template? Does it even include pre-trading preparation? What would you recommend adding to this trading plan?

Please make sure to share your answers, along with whether you agree or not, and why you agree/disagree.

In a new series of articles, I will be reviewing books approximately once a month specifically related to trading. I am a fanatic reader, consuming on avg. 1-3 books a week, and often come across some great reads on trading, or building a successful mindset. Today’s forex trading book review is one my most recent reads Cultures of Expertise in Global Currency Markets by Leon Wansleben.

Book Review Chris Capre Cultures of Expertise in Global Currency Markets
Overview

The book is a solid study of traders and analysts at a top 10 bank in Germany, focusing on the FX desk. The author is a sociologist by trade, spending a lot of time analyzing the interactions between members on the FX desk.

It goes without saying parts of the book are highly ‘academic‘ in nature. This is key, because you will find yourself going through pages and pages of ideas which are aptly named ‘theories’.

We are traders – we deal in the reality of profits and losses, managing our risk models, emotions and mindset. Sociological theories by themselves will have little benefit to us. Regardless, the book has some highly valuable information, so onto the gems inside.

Pros
Want to find out a lot of interesting information on bank professionals? Then you’ll find this book interesting on such things as;
-how bank traders make trading decisions
-interactions with the analysts
-day to day activities

It is clear by the end of the book (if it wasn’t already), bank traders are highly aware of fundamental data/announcements. Sometimes this info is primary. Other times they are strictly concerned with the ‘flow data‘, or order flow and transactions from incoming hedge funds and participants.

Price Action & Intra-day Trading
One thing is clear – desk traders are primarily focused on the price action in real time. They are without a doubt trading intra-day on an active basis, while also building longer term positions in their book.

Hence, any ‘guru’ or ‘authority’ out there touting how ‘higher time frames‘ are the way the institutions trade,  has no idea what they are talking about and spouting  a complete fiction.

live price action trade eustx 50 for 4R in 30mins 2ndskiesforex

Interactions
The author does a really good job providing insights between the traders, analysts, salespeople and how they interact daily. He shows several diagrams of the layout, seating positions & conversations during specific meetings for an inside look into FX trading desks at large banks.

Traits of Top Traders
Another key point you quickly realize, is how the top traders manage risk, are incredibly disciplined, and have emotional courage to perform at the top levels.

Also you’ll begin to understand how critical intensive screen time is to developing a high level of trading skill. For those trading daily and 4hr strategies only, you won’t build a solid base of skill trading just 30 mins to 1 hr per day. Hence, you’ll need to augment this by accelerating your learning process, which I’ll describe how in a future article for those with full time jobs.

The Cons
Being written by a research fellow at a University, the book has a certain academic feel, which unless you are into academic theories, you will likely find these parts uninteresting.

My suggestion is anytime the author launches into a discussion about such theories, you can skip forward till they start engaging how the traders, analysts or salespeople act on a daily basis. This is where the real juice is for you IMO.

Another con is the price. Being over $100 – compared to most trading books, it’s on the upper end. You can ‘rent’ it for 1/4th the price, which would be my suggestion if you just want the nuggets inside.

In Summary
For those wanting an insight into the FX institutional world and how bank professionals trade, this will be an informative book. Most likely, it will change how you trade and approach the markets. That in and of itself means the book has value.

For those feeling like they should ignore fundamentals, you’ll probably find yourself re-evaluating this position. Minimally you’ll want to be aware of such events, and consider studying them a little bit further (without diving too intensely into them).

Along those lines, how do you relate to fundamental/economic events? Do you study them, just know of them, or trade through them? And for those trading only daily and 4hr strategies, what do you do to accelerate your learning curve?

In part 1 of What You Need to Do to Make Money Trading, I wrote about how you need to get comfortable – particularly with uncertainty as to what will happen next.  Your ability to sit in the saddle of uncertainty will determine your ability to make good trading decisions which leads to more profitable trades.

In part 2, I will delineate why you need to get comfortable with yourself in trading and what this means.

Getting Comfortable With Yourself
When I first started taking archery classes, I had to decide if I wanted to shoot a recurve or compound bow, as they definitely differ in their shooting styles, techniques, handle, potency and uses.

My teacher asked me which I prefer after a few classes, and I took a moment to think about why I was taking archery classes in the first place.

For me, I was taking classes for twofold reasons;

1) As a complimentary skill for trading (concentration, focus, precision and awareness in the moment).  

2) As a meditation practice

To this end, the recurve bow felt more suited to this.  Even though it’s not as powerful, or cannot shoot the same distances as a compound bow, power or distance was not the motivation behind my archery training.  Hence why I shoot a recurve bow to this day.

This process for you getting comfortable with yourself has to be done in a similar way.  You have to really understand who you are, how you best operate, what environments does your natural talents/skills/intelligence prosper, along with what are your specific trading goals for trading.

getting comfortable with yourself trading 2ndskiestrading.com

My guess is when you have figured these things out, the system and method will be just naturally arise and be obvious.  But don’t fall into the trap of thinking you have to gun for ‘the most profitable’ system, or trade on any time frame to be profitable.  You’d be amazed how many times beginning traders ask the question of ‘what time frame do you trade‘ or the more common is ‘what is your most profitable system‘.

Anytime I see this, I can see they are asking the wrong questions. Making money is not time frame dependent – as if one time frame has a monopoly on making profits.  And looking for the ‘most profitable system’ really is ignoring the fact it may not be the best one for you.

It may trade only when you are asleep, or at work. Or it may force you to hold trades for days when you prefer to be out out at the end of the day. What use is it to you then?

A Good Trader
I can always tell a really good trader when I talk to them.  They are never worried about what someone else is doing, how much they are making, or what system they are using.  I personally know a trader that did 3000% one year with over 90% accuracy making at the end of the year over 200k a day.

Yet he is an engineer who is highly mathematical, and employs a system that took him 8 years to learn with his level of mathematical skills (way above mine).  Using that system would actually be counter-productive for me, my time and my natural way of thinking.

Eventually, a good trader has settled into two things;

1) They’ve settled into how they operate best when trading

2) They’ve found a rule based system that works for them

To do this, you really need a little bit of trial and error, but it also takes some self-reflective ability as to how you are as a being.

Do you prefer to micro-manage things, and does this usually work out for the better?  

Or are you best using set and forget strategies?  

Are you really available to trade several hours a day, and do you want to?

Or would you prefer to only ‘participate’ in the markets a couple hours per day?

Are you really risk averse, or are you comfortable with risk and volatility?

Answers to the above questions could determine what is the best strategy, pairs and style of trading you engage in on a daily basis. The bottom line is, if it’s not a fun car for you to drive, it doesn’t really matter what kind of car it is.

You can always tell if you are uncomfortable with a system, if it racks your brain, patience and emotions using it.  If you feel drained trading it – regardless of profit or loss, then it’s likely not for you.  However, if you feel this with every system you use, then the issues may be more on the psychological level with how you relate to trading. This is simply because the common demoninator is you – not the system.

I myself trade both intraday price action strategies, along with higher time frame methods.  I also trade both price action and ichimoku models because the combination of the two is what works for me. I like a balance between being engaged for a couple hours per day, while also holding positions overnight so I can make money sleeping, and just let them play out.

In a recent article called The Ideal Trader, I explained how combining intraday + daily and 4hr price action strategies, is ideal because it allows you to quickly grow your account (via intraday trading), while also making money sleeping.  But the key for you is to find a system and style that is tailored to you across the board, and provides the soil for your natural talents, skills and intelligence to grow and flourish.

forex trading tailored for you 2ndskiestrading.com

Until then, trading will likely be an uphill battle against you – not the markets. But once you’ve found a balance of what’s most natural for you – it will result in you being consistently profitable, while finally feeling settled with trading and the markets.

The next article for this week will discuss always trading and thinking in probabilities.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Over the last two weeks, I wrote on the subjects of ‘Quality vs Quantity – Which is Better For Trading?’ and ‘What is A High Quality Signal‘.

The main theme has been around dispelling some freshman arguments and confusions others have written espousing the quality is better than quantity argument, and what really constitutes a high quality signal.

One question that should have arisen out of this is ‘what is the ideal trading method and frequency‘ based on what I have now explained.

That is what I will focus on today – the ideal trading frequency (or what I think is the ideal trader).  In other words, what kinds of trading strategies and frequency would offer you to make the most profits.
the ideal trader 2ndskiestrading.com forex trading
I will first talk about time and how that plays a crucial role in trading (and life).  Then I will unpack a few trading strategies to give you the maximum punch for your efforts.

Time Is A Currency

I was recently traveling internationally walking down the streets, and I noticed a huge line leading up to this machine.  I asked my local friend what all those people were waiting for.  They told me if they punch their tickets, they get $.30 off their subway fare.

I then went up to someone in line and asked them how long they wait on average.  “About 15 minutes”. I could tell immediately this person misunderstood how valuable time was.

They waited there 5x per week on average of 15 minutes (1.25 hours) all to save $1.50.  If they really valued time, they would work an extra 1.25 hours to make more money than the $1.50 they were saving waiting in line.

This extra effort in overtime pay certainly outweighs the $1.50 gained.

Or they could use this extra time to figure out new ways to do what they do, likely leading to a promotion and thus higher pay.
time is a currency time frames forex trading 2ndskiestrading.com
There are plenty of more effective ways to use their time.  But the reality is, when you do not have money, you think money is more valuable than time.  When you have money, you think time is money and is really more valuable.

Why?

Because you can replace lost money, you can always make more money (an almost unlimited amount), and you can multiply money exponentially.

But…you cannot replace, make or multiple time.  Once time is spent, it is gone forever and cannot be replaced, re-done or re-used.
Thus in reality, time is a currency, and often mis-spent.

Using your time well in a highly efficient and intelligent manner will almost always lead to having more time and more money.  Find someone really successful and active, and I’ll find you someone who understands time is a currency.

So How Does This Relate To Trading?

The only way one can possibly ‘multiply’ time is to be able to do two things at once.

When it comes to trading, the only way to do this is to trade set and forget strategies on the 4hr and daily time frames. These are strategies where you do not need much time to manage them.

Real set and forget strategies are rule based systems, meaning there are rules for entries, exits, stops, limits, taking profits – everything.

You do not have to make discretionary decisions to use them.  All you have to do execute the rules using minimal time and effort to trade them.
set and forget strategies 2ndskiestrading.com
While the trade is playing itself out, you are off doing something else (reading a book, learning a new language, training in a brain gym, etc).  This allows you to get maximum effect for the least amount of time used.

But I thought you said trading in quantity can be more profitable?

I did, and it is a fact, that if you can take your systems edge, and execute it a few more times a month with similar accuracy, you will make more profit then executing it less.

In fact, in my prior article dispelling the quality is better than quantity argument, I showed that the system with over 15% higher accuracy trading less, was still making far less profits and pips than the system trading more frequently and less accurately.

So quantity does matter.

Thus, trading set and forget strategies is useful because it allows you to do other things while making money.  Being able to make money while sleeping is incredibly potent for building financial abundance.

But…and I mean but…trading only a handful of times per month does two negative things to your trading;

  1. Limited Feedback Loop = Slower Learning Curve
  2. Not Multiplying Your Edge = Making Less Money

Let me unpack these two briefly.

Limited Feedback Loop = Slower Learning Curve
It is a Neuroscientific & Cognitive fact that if you are under-stimulated, or become bored with your trading process, that it will interfere with your learning process.  Being bored means you are not challenging yourself enough, nor getting enough feedback from the markets.
neuroscience of learning limited feedback learning process forex trading 2ndskiestrading.com
Every time you make a trade, it gives you feedback on your abilities, on how you find entries and exits, how you control risk, read price action signals, and make trading decisions.

You don’t become a good golfer or quarterback by sitting on the sidelines most of the time.

You become better at trading, by trading and making trading decisions – win or lose.  Each trade is a feedback loop from the markets which offers you information that can bring you closer towards your goal, re-enforcing good habits while negating bad ones.

But if you don’t trade often or enough, you are missing out from seeing how much you really understand. There is a reason bank traders often have to make 4,000 trades before the bank lets them trade money. Without being challenged enough in relationship to your skill level, being bored or under-stimulated will not induce development, and it will actually hurt the learning process.

Thus, if you are only trading around 4-5x a month, you are hurting your learning process and curve, as you are missing plenty of high quality signals every day.

Not Multiplying Your Edge = Making Less Money

Although I’ve already demonstrated this in my prior article on quality vs quantity, the bottom line is your system should have an edge and expectancy.

If you are trading at 60% accuracy, making on average 2:1 reward to risk per trade, ask yourself who makes more money;

Trader A using that system 5x a month?

or

Trader B using that system 10x a month?

The answer is obvious – it’s a mathematical fact that if you can multiply the amount of times your edge plays out, you will make more money.
trading quantity more money 2ndskiestrading.com
So in summary, trading more often while keeping your edge, will not only challenge you and stimulate you more, but will also help you make more money and profits.

What About Set and Forget Strategies?

The downside with set and forget strategies on the 4hr and daily time frames, is they do not come as often as intraday trading setups will.

Ask yourself how many signals offering 100 pip targets and 50 pips stops come in relationship to 60 pip targets and 30 pip stops?

Obviously more of the latter.  And since daily signals only come once per day per pair, mathematically there are less of them than signals on the 4hr, 1hr or smaller time frames.

Although you may think only high quality signals come on the 4hr and daily time frames, you simply have not been trained to see them, as there are plenty of them coming daily on lower time frames.
learn to trade the market read price action 2ndskiestrading.com
A quality signal has nothing to do with time frame, but having three things;

  1. Is a pattern that repeats itself with consistency and accuracy
  2. Is a signal that offers low risk and high reward potential
  3. Is a pattern that offers itself a clear entry and exit pattern

That is all a signal needs to be high quality, and this is not time frame dependent.  If someone tells you otherwise, they do not understand trading and you should run away from them.

Although set and forget strategies can allow you to use your time efficiently, they do not allow you to multiply your account at the same pace as trading intraday will offer you more signals, and plenty of high quality ones.  The one downside in trading intraday is you usually have to be there and manage the trade.

With training, this is not stressful, and becomes quite enjoyable.  It also offers you a greater opportunity to learn, as you are observing more candles and price action formations, thus seeing more patterns and gaining more chart time.  The latter two will without a doubt increase your learning curve, but only spending a few hours per week will take you a long time to log your 10,000 hours or really master reading price action patterns.

Thus, trading intraday signals and setups allows you to generate more opportunities for profit.
live intraday price action trading chris capre 2ndskiesforex oil trade dec 18th

Which Is Better Then, and What Is The Ideal Trader?

In reality, the best combination is to trade both set and forget strategies, along with trading intraday setups. This is the ideal way to generate the most profits in the least amount of time.

You really get the best of both worlds as you can make money sleeping, also finding great intraday price action setups each day, and I have students doing exactly that, week in-week out.

Now I do not recommend sitting at your computer for 8hrs per day just trading intraday, then spending another 1-2 hours per day finding your set and forget setups.

The brain really can only achieve maximum concentration for short periods of time, often less than a few hours.  Luckily, the best intraday trading setups are during peak times of volatility, so you only need to be around for a few segments of the trading day to capture some serious pips and profits.

I recently did a live intraday price action trade banking +1415 pips of profit in about 4 hours with over a 4.75x reward to risk play.  How many days will it take you to make +1415 pips of profit, or 4.75x your risk trading daily price action setups?  Food for thought, but i’m pretty sure you won’t do that in a day, or even a week for that matter.

In Summary

The bottom line is, the ideal trader can trade a few hours of the day highly concentrated, finding a few high quality intraday price action setups, while also making some set and forget plays.  This allows them to multiply their profits and edge from the intraday trading, in concert with making money while sleeping.

This really is the ideal trader and offers you the most opportunities – not just for making profits, but for accelerating your learning process as you are constantly in the feedback loop from the markets, and learning at a faster pace.

Now there are other critical factors for helping the learning process, along with finding what is ideal for you, and what is the ideal trader mentality.  These things I will discuss in the next article which will be coming soon so stay tuned.

Until then, no matter what religion you are, or wherever you are in the world, I wish you all the best of holidays, and that good health, abundance and a ocean of good things come to you, and those you care about.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre