Tag Archive for: intraday price action strategies

In part 1 of What You Need to Do to Make Money Trading, I wrote about how you need to get comfortable – particularly with uncertainty as to what will happen next.  Your ability to sit in the saddle of uncertainty will determine your ability to make good trading decisions which leads to more profitable trades.

In part 2, I will delineate why you need to get comfortable with yourself in trading and what this means.

Getting Comfortable With Yourself
When I first started taking archery classes, I had to decide if I wanted to shoot a recurve or compound bow, as they definitely differ in their shooting styles, techniques, handle, potency and uses.

My teacher asked me which I prefer after a few classes, and I took a moment to think about why I was taking archery classes in the first place.

For me, I was taking classes for twofold reasons;

1) As a complimentary skill for trading (concentration, focus, precision and awareness in the moment).  

2) As a meditation practice

To this end, the recurve bow felt more suited to this.  Even though it’s not as powerful, or cannot shoot the same distances as a compound bow, power or distance was not the motivation behind my archery training.  Hence why I shoot a recurve bow to this day.

This process for you getting comfortable with yourself has to be done in a similar way.  You have to really understand who you are, how you best operate, what environments does your natural talents/skills/intelligence prosper, along with what are your specific trading goals for trading.

getting comfortable with yourself trading 2ndskiestrading.com

My guess is when you have figured these things out, the system and method will be just naturally arise and be obvious.  But don’t fall into the trap of thinking you have to gun for ‘the most profitable’ system, or trade on any time frame to be profitable.  You’d be amazed how many times beginning traders ask the question of ‘what time frame do you trade‘ or the more common is ‘what is your most profitable system‘.

Anytime I see this, I can see they are asking the wrong questions. Making money is not time frame dependent – as if one time frame has a monopoly on making profits.  And looking for the ‘most profitable system’ really is ignoring the fact it may not be the best one for you.

It may trade only when you are asleep, or at work. Or it may force you to hold trades for days when you prefer to be out out at the end of the day. What use is it to you then?

A Good Trader
I can always tell a really good trader when I talk to them.  They are never worried about what someone else is doing, how much they are making, or what system they are using.  I personally know a trader that did 3000% one year with over 90% accuracy making at the end of the year over 200k a day.

Yet he is an engineer who is highly mathematical, and employs a system that took him 8 years to learn with his level of mathematical skills (way above mine).  Using that system would actually be counter-productive for me, my time and my natural way of thinking.

Eventually, a good trader has settled into two things;

1) They’ve settled into how they operate best when trading

2) They’ve found a rule based system that works for them

To do this, you really need a little bit of trial and error, but it also takes some self-reflective ability as to how you are as a being.

Do you prefer to micro-manage things, and does this usually work out for the better?  

Or are you best using set and forget strategies?  

Are you really available to trade several hours a day, and do you want to?

Or would you prefer to only ‘participate’ in the markets a couple hours per day?

Are you really risk averse, or are you comfortable with risk and volatility?

Answers to the above questions could determine what is the best strategy, pairs and style of trading you engage in on a daily basis. The bottom line is, if it’s not a fun car for you to drive, it doesn’t really matter what kind of car it is.

You can always tell if you are uncomfortable with a system, if it racks your brain, patience and emotions using it.  If you feel drained trading it – regardless of profit or loss, then it’s likely not for you.  However, if you feel this with every system you use, then the issues may be more on the psychological level with how you relate to trading. This is simply because the common demoninator is you – not the system.

I myself trade both intraday price action strategies, along with higher time frame methods.  I also trade both price action and ichimoku models because the combination of the two is what works for me. I like a balance between being engaged for a couple hours per day, while also holding positions overnight so I can make money sleeping, and just let them play out.

In a recent article called The Ideal Trader, I explained how combining intraday + daily and 4hr price action strategies, is ideal because it allows you to quickly grow your account (via intraday trading), while also making money sleeping.  But the key for you is to find a system and style that is tailored to you across the board, and provides the soil for your natural talents, skills and intelligence to grow and flourish.

forex trading tailored for you 2ndskiestrading.com

Until then, trading will likely be an uphill battle against you – not the markets. But once you’ve found a balance of what’s most natural for you – it will result in you being consistently profitable, while finally feeling settled with trading and the markets.

The next article for this week will discuss always trading and thinking in probabilities.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

The learning process never ends for a trader.   The market is always evolving and you have to adapt. Algorithmic trading was about 3% of the FX market in 04′.  Now 28% of it is just HFT’s alone! Think that has changed the intraday price action?  Absolutely!
Thus, you must always be learning, evolving and challenging yourself.  There are always refinements and greater depths to what you are doing, whether you are trading price action, ichimoku or other rule based systems.
Regardless of your skill level in trading, you are going to make mistakes.  I make mistakes, but I learn from them with alacrity.  I quickly analyze what I did wrong, visualize what I would do differently, clear my mindset and get back to business.   The difference between a professional & beginning trader is usually two-fold;
1) they make less of the typical mistakes beginners do
and
2) they rebound much faster, control the damage quicker and get back to business
Analyze your last year of trading in your journal.  I’m willing to bet if you eliminated just one or two mistakes you continually repeat, your current losing year would have been a profitable one.  If you ended the year break-even, then it likely would have been highly profitable.
Eliminating mistakes is one of the fastest ways to profitability. The sooner you discover, eliminate and transform them, the faster your equity curve will climb.
Thus, in the spirit of this, I will share my top trading mistakes for 2012 in the hopes you can learn from them.
1) Trading and Investing are Two Different Things
I am a trader first and foremost, but I also am invested long term in physical gold.
To ‘invest’ in physical gold, you constantly have to understand what is happening in the physical AND paper market.  It helps to study central bank buying of gold, physical supply, how it is used as a safe haven against bad governments, etc.
However, I also trade gold using intraday price action strategies, and sometimes my methods/opinions on one get mixed with another.  Long term I am a bull on gold, and have been since 2004/05 back at the $400 levels.
Many times in the last 3 months, I was long paper gold.  Yet intraday price action would be screaming for me to get short.  My broker allows hedging – so why wasn’t I shorting physical?  Because my long term investing bias was interfering with my short term trading methods.
One of my top trading mistakes for 2012 was forgetting that I am a trader first and foremost, and to not let my bullish bias or investing strategies interfere with an obvious price action setup.
A good example is I bought paper gold at $1633, which I blogged about as a high probability breakout.  At one point I was up 51x my risk, meaning for the 300 pips I was risking, I was up about 15200 pips.
By the time I walked away from the trade, I was only up 6500 pips. I didn’t follow exit rules because of my long term investment bias.
Remember, a trader and investor are two different things, and you must understand the difference.
2) Trading Against Impulsive Price Action
One of the base models I use for trading is understanding impulsive and corrective price action.
To sum it up briefly, impulsive price action moves are when the institutional market is heavily buying or selling and driving the price action directionally.  With training and practice, you can learn to read the order flow behind price action, particularly by identifying these impulsive price action moves.
A few times this year I traded completely against these moves.  Case in point – meet exhibit A, ironically on……wait for it……Gold!
Gold 4hr Charts
impulsive and corrective price action gold trade 4hr chart 2ndskiestrading.com
Looking at the chart above, you will notice on the bottom left points A and B which showed strong price action rejections.  Buyers stepped in at this level, driving prices almost $50 higher in about 6 days.
At C you will notice the pin bar at C which was the second sign the bullish move was ending.  Any idea what the first was?
Regardless, after the pin bar, price action failed to make a HH (higher high) and started with selling off impulsively at D, then more sellers came in at E, and by F, once it broke the role reversal level, price got monkey-hammered dropping $30 in 4 hours.
I had a buy order at the support level at G, so made some profit on the bounce, but missed the fact the market was still showing impulsive price action selling.
So at H what did I do?  I bought some again, hoping for a similar move.  The result is below, but you get the idea.
Gold 4hr Chart Exhibit B
impulsive price action breakout pullback setup gold 2ndskiestrading.com
At the support level where my first long worked out, I went long again at H and the same level.  Shortly after I was stopped out.
Instead of realizing I was trading against the trend and impulsive price action, I was looking for a reversal. I consequently missed the obvious breakout pullback setup at the same level I was looking to get long, which then became a role reversal level.  This is what happens when you trade against the trend and your system.
Not only do you miss several good with trend setups, but after you get stopped out, you usually miss the follow up trade from your price action system to take advantage of the move.
3) Let Your Trade Run Until Your System Tells You To Exit
Barring any extreme or black swan event, I usually just let my trade run until my rule based system tells me to exit.
However on a recent buy on the GBPJPY, after getting a great entry and banking about +300 pips, I exited the trade, even though my system was still telling me to hold long and hadn’t given an exit signal.
Looking at the chart below, you can see on the top left at B a critical resistance level which started the massive 300 pip sell off.
ichimoku strategy chris capre 2ndskiesforex gbpjpy + 300 pips
Price started to show signs of exhaustion, and started a reversal.  My ichimoku strategy picked up a buy order just above 126.60.  Shortly after, price climbed rapidly gunning it for the same resistance level at 129.50.  After the weekend gap rejected, I took profit banking about +300 pips.
Not so bad you say…until you look at the chart below.
ichimoku trading strategies chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com gbpjpy
Not only did my system hold on for another + 300 pips, but it gave me a re-buy signal around 132 and is still currently long today.  I missed that one as well from being ‘upset’ about exiting early.  Needless to say this would have over tripled my profits. Even though my system never gave me an exit, I got out of the position.
Not letting runners run is one of the most costly mistakes a trader can make.  Yes, it is important to understand what is a high quality signal, but I’m guessing if you let just 10 of your trades run until the system gave you an exit, you would have made almost double your profits on those 10 trades.  For me, it was actually 2.4x more.  Food for thought.
In Closing
Part of trading is making mistakes, but a key component of your success is learning from your mistakes and making less of them over time.  Regardless of your skill level or how long you have been trading, you will make mistakes.  Anyone who only posts their successes and doesn’t admit to their failures is hiding behind a wall of fear and a false reality.
I make mistakes and I’ve been doing this for 12 years.  But I learn from them continually and make less of them as time goes on.  This translates into more profits, smaller drawdowns, less emotions, and a smoother equity curve.
Eliminating mistakes is the fastest path to making more profits.  But the first step is becoming aware of them.  This is where the trading journal comes in handy.  If you’ve made 300 trades last year, are you really going to remember every mistake you ever made?  Unlikely, this is why you have a journal, to help you become aware of your mistakes.
The second step is to actively work on eliminating and transforming them.  If you repeat a mistake over and over again, then the cause is likely psychologically, and something that can be re-wired through ERT training and developing a successful trader mindset.
But the bottom line is you can transform your mistakes into strengths, and most definitely into greater profits.  In almost all cases, making less mistakes can be the difference between a winning and losing day, month or year.  And in almost all cases – will lead to significantly greater profits.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre