Tag Archive for: EURJPY

Chris Capre’s live open price action and ichimoku trades: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURCZK, EU50

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EURJPY – Strong Weekly Close Below LT Key Support, Now Resistance (Weekly chart)

Price Action Context

The potential strong weekly close below the LT key resistance zone we hinted about in our mid-week commentary manifested and we can consider this zone fully cleared at this point.

eurjpy-forex-trade-setup-2ndskies

Trending Analysis

LT bias is bearish and bears can look for potential shorting opportunities on pullbacks towards the weekly zone, alternatively look for potential RRL plays on the H4 charts where currently a MT CVT is in play.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 122.50 – 124.00
S: 118.60 – 117.70

Stay up to date with our members daily trade ideas for ongoing commentary.

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EURGBP – Counter-Trend False Break @ Top of SCS (1h chart)

Price Action Context

As already mentioned in our daily trade ideas on Thursday, EURGBP is trading within a SCS on top of a bull trend. Price is extended from its mean on the HTF, suggesting a ST exhaustion and towards the end of past week, bulls failed to push price further north, printing a counter-trend false break setup at the top of the SCS.

eurgbp-false-break-setup-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

The false break at the top of the SCS opens up for a likely move back towards the support of the corrective structure which can offer potential buying opportunities to bulls. Should the SCS support fail to hold, a move down towards the LT support we’ve mentioned in earlier commentaries is likely IMO, which can offer further trading opportunities to bulls.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 0.8835 – 0.8850
S: 0.8780 – 0.8800

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Hang Seng 50 – Bearish CVT Still Alive (1h chart)

Price Action Context

The ST bearish CVT is still alive and has offered multiple potential RRL-plays since we we mentioned it in our market commentary on the 19th of May. Congratulations to those of you who were able to take advantage and profit from these ST trading opportunities. The trend seems to be slowing down slightly as the bearish impulsive moves are getting weaker, but as long as the price action does not break back impulsively above the last broken support, the trend is in play.

hang-seng-index-trading-signals-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

HTF is non-volatile + MT & ST bias are bearish and bears can look for potential shorting opportunities on weak pullbacks towards the last broken ST support, now resistance.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 27 090 – 27 200
S: 26 500 – 26 750

Chris Capre’s live open price action and ichimoku trades: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURCZK, EU50

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Forex Trading Q&A: How We Teach Price Action Skills & Why You Need Patience {New Video}

EURJPY – Breaking Below LT Key Support Zone (Weekly chart)

Price Action Context

With almost no signs of bullish order flow over the last few weeks, price has slowly been chewing its way through the LT key support zone we’ve mentioned in earlier commentaries, and this week we’re seeing the first solid attempt by bears to fully clear this support zone.

eurjpy-forex-trade-setup-2ndskies

Trending Analysis

A strong weekly close below this support zone would open up for a potential bearish continuation towards 1.1860, whilst a bullish impulsive move back above the support zone would render this a false break and put 1.27 back into focus.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 122.50 – 124.00
S: 118.60 – 117.70

Here is a live price action trade setup I made on the EURJPY, using only a 30 pip stop and a +216 pip target. The trade profited +7R, with the final trade result and screenshot below.

eurjpy 2hr chart live price action trade oct 31 2014 v1

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Today’s price action tip article is designed to give any beginning, or non-profitable trader, 2 critical tips to help accelerate your learning curve and avoid the pitfalls almost everyone falls into.  If you can learn to follow these two beginner forex trading tips, then you will find yourself making more winning trades, along with less mistakes that tend to get you in trouble.

Trading is already hard enough, regardless of your level, so integrating these two tips will help you to make more winning trades.

Tip #1:  Trade Only When The Price Action & Direction Is Clear
Although this may seem confusing for the beginner, as price action rarely seems clear, there is actually a simple model to determine whether the price action and direction is clear.

The model I use daily to determine the direction/clarity of the market is looking for impulsive price action moves.  To briefly sum it up, impulsive price action is when the institutional players (those that move the market) are either heavily buying or heavily selling the market.  You can spot these moves by three simple characteristics;

1) The bars are quite large

2) They are mostly one color

3) They have closes towards the highs or lows (in the direction of the move)

When you see these three things, you almost always have an impulsive move.  And when you have an impulsive move, those that move the market are predominantly pushing it in one direction, which is the direction you want to trade with.  When you can find the correct direction, and trade it, you give yourself the greatest probability of making money.

An example of some impulsive moves are below, and you will see when looking at the chart, you will definitely want to be trading in that direction.

Silver 4hr Chart
impulsive price action 3 tips for beginning traders 2ndskiestrading.com

Looking at the chart above, you will see two colors of boxes; White and Green.  If you look at all the white boxes above, you will all notice they have the three characteristics of impulsive moves described above.

Compare them to the green boxes – these have the opposite of the 3 characteristics of impulsive moves. These are called corrective moves, and for beginning traders, they should be avoided as a whole.  When in doubt, if you do not have a clear market or impulsive moves, avoid trading.

Often times for beginning traders, finding the right direction is difficult, and it seems like you tend to find the opposite side of the move.  By learning to only trade with impulsive moves and the price action is clear, you are saying to yourself, ‘I’m only going to fish when the easy fish are around’.

Tip #2:  When Trend Trading – Best to Buy or Sell When the Prior Bar Closes in Your Direction
This is a general rule I suggest to use until you get really good at trading trends.  The reason for this is simple;

a) If you are looking to buy in an uptrend, you have a greater chance of being correct when the last bar to close, closed bullish.
b) If you are looking to sell in a downtrend, you have the greater chance of being correct when the last bar to close, closed bearish

If you think about it – when looking to buy in an uptrend and the last bar closed bullish, it is a confirmation for the last candle (and time), the bulls were in control.  This bullish close is more likely to inspire bulls the trend is still alive.

Contrast this to buying when the bears demonstrated control on the last bar.  This means they dominated the order flow for that bar, and may be pushing against your orders.  This increases the chance the bulls will take profit after seeing a bear bar as opposed to a bull bar (continuation).

However, if the bulls demonstrated control on the last bar, then they are likely still present pushing the market in your favor, so this gives you a greater probability to have follow through on your trade when you enter the market.

Two examples are below.

GBPJPY 4hr Chart
pullback low pbl price action chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com

In this chart, we clearly have an uptrend, which offers a couple of with trend pullbacks.  In these pullbacks, you will see two PBL’s (Pullback Lows), which led to a breakout of the prior SH (Swing High) for the trend. You will notice in both of them, the low for the pullback was a bull candle, and the follow up price action was a strong series of bull candles to follow.

Another example is in the chart below on the EURJPY 4hr Chart
price action pullback low pbl chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com

In this chart, we have 3 major with trend pullbacks, and in two out of three of them, the PBL’s had a bull bar at the bottom, also demonstrating this principle.  As a general rule, bulls will feel more confident buying a pullback (or breakout) in a trend, when the last bar closed bullish. This is a stronger communication the bulls have been able to take control of the price action and order flow for the last bar.

In Summary
Trading is already challenging enough, and finding the right direction is one of the most crucial aspects to making good trades. In the beginning, you already have enough to think about, so try to keep it simple, and trade when the direction is clear.  Look for impulsive price action moves as much as possible, and when you find them, trade in that direction.

However, when the price action is not clear, try to stay out until a clear signal and market emerges.

When trend trading, you have a much better chance in the beginning, if you buy/sell when the last bar closes in your direction.  This closing in your direction is a clearer communication from the market, the bulls/bears are more likely in control, and in your favor.

I hope these two beginner forex trading tips help you.

To learn more price action techniques and systems, make sure to check out my price action course where I have a large community of traders, posting live trade setups daily, and I teach them how to read and trade price action.