This is the third installment introducing details to subjects which are not really discussed or talked about when it comes to Ichimoku Trading, that of using Ichimoku Time Theory and Ichimoku Wave Theory. Remember, according to Goichi Hosada (the creator of the Ichimoku Cloud), the Ichimoku trading system is based upon three pillars, and they are;
1) Ichimoku Time Theory
2) Ichimoku Wave Theory
3) Ichimoku Price Theory
This Ichimoku trading system article will be focused on introducing the key principles to Ichimoku Price Theory. For those wanting a review of the other two, you can find those articles by clicking on the links above.
It should be noted to really understand and apply Ichimoku Price Theory, you will need an understanding of the prior two, particularly a good grasp of the Time Theory which is used quite extensively with the Price Theory.
The goal of this article will be to introduce the most basic components of the Price Theory, which may be considered the most complicated of the three. I will discuss the main price calculations, how to formulate them, give examples of each one and some helpful tips when applying the Price Theory to Ichimoku trading.
Introduction To Ichimoku Price Theory
First, it should be noted we do not want to see these price targets as absolutes. They are really guides to give us highly probable approximations as to where the market is likely headed during a particular wave or move. These methods take practice to learn how to use, so take your time with them, but never look at this as an absolute target.
In reality, there are 4 basic price measurement methods according to the theory, however the 4th is generally regarded as a low probability event and takes a considerable amount of skill to spot and use. So for our purposes, we will only use the basic three which are the most common and critical to learn.
The three main price measurements are known as;
1) The V Calculation = B + (B – C)
2) The N Calculation = C + (B – A)
3) The E Calculation = B + (B – A)
The formulas for them are listed above, but I will show you a diagram to better understand them which is below.
Although I listed the NT Calculation, for now just spend time understanding and practicing the first three price measurements.
The V Calculation
Looking at this general structure, we have a bullish move from A – B – C. You will notice the depth of the retracement of C in relationship to the A – B move, which is about a 61.8% retracement. If we were using Ichimoku Wave Theory, this would correlate to an N Wave.
The way to use this as a price measurement method is when price breaks the horizontal line at B for that is only when the V Calculation and pattern would be active. Of course we can make the calculation ahead of time, and that is the point of the price measurement methods (or ichimoku price theory in general). But the calculation actually does not become ‘active’ till the line at B is broken.
Once this does, we can expect an upside price target of D to be achieved (within a handful of pips) based on the V Calculation. An example is below.
V Calculation Using the NZDUSD 4hr Chart
So using this chart and running through the math of the V Calculation, we take .8202 + (.8202 – .8110 = 92), or .8202 + 92 pips = .8294. As you can see, this matches up nicely with a current swing high and natural target for an upside continuation in the Kiwi (should it continue). This is a basic example of how you can use the V Calculation to gauge a potential target for the pair. An ichimoku trader using this calculation along with the swing high would only bolster their confidence in the upside target being hit.
Keep in mind this is a live chart and I have no idea how this will play out, but wanted to show it as an example.
Lets run through examples of the N and E calculations so you can see how they operate.
N Calculation = C + (B – A) Using the Dow Jones Index 4hr Chart
Now using this chart above and the numbers for the N Calculation, C (12698) + (12794 – 12463 = 331), or 12698 + 331 = 13029. So we would have a general target of 13029. Now if you remember, these numbers are not meant to be absolutes, only highly probably approximations of upside or downside targets. Considering the major role reversal level was at 13003, we can consider this to be a good target for D using the N calculation.
E Calculation = B + (B – A) Using GBPJPY 4hr Chart
Using this chart above on the GBPJPY and the E Calculation, B (12897) + (12897 – 12566 = 331), so 12897 + 331 = 132.28. In this case, the market actually only got one pip higher than the D price measurement or target, showing a fine example of how the E calculation and price measurement theory can work.
Some Additional Notes
As I said before, ichimoku price theory should be combined with ichimoku time theory as they work in tandem. But the scope of this is for another article and far too large for an introduction to ichimoku price theory.
Another note in terms of deciding which price measurement to use is based on the price action of the actual moves you want to measure. You will notice all of the calculations have certain levels of impulsivity and correctiveness to the A, B and C moves. On a basic level, what you are doing is gauging the level of the retracement from B – C, along with the correctiveness of the pullback from B-C to determine which calculation you will use. Thus in essence, you need the A, B and C components to really apply any calculation at all. But how you read these moves and waves will determine which calculation you use.
A critical note as well, is when measuring bull or bear runs. The calculations you see in the first diagram are for bullish runs. For bearish runs, you will substitute the + for a – between the first variable and the set. Thus, using the V Calculation, instead of it being V = B + (B-C), it would be V = B – (B – C).
In Summary
This was an introduction into Ichimoku Price Theory which is by far the most complex and intricate of the three pillars of The Ichimoku trading system. The three basic calculations are critical and the foundation of the entire price theory, thus the most important formulas for you to learn. Eventually you will combine price theory with time theory, but for now, just practice the basics here. These price measurements are not to be considered absolute values, and Ichimoku was always meant to be used in combination with price action. In fact, many aspects of ichimoku and the formulas are interpretations and patterns often found within price action, so the two are really intertwined.
For a more in depth study and training on Ichimoku Price, Time, Wave Theory, and Ichimoku Trading, make sure to visit my Advanced Ichimoku Course where we explore these methods in great depth, along with giving rule based systems to trade ichimoku both intraday and a trending/momentum basis.
Tag Archive for: ichimoku price theory
For all those traders interested or currently trading Ichimoku, you will not want to miss this article.
Although I am heading out in a few hours with my girlfriend to Harbin Hot Springs, I wanted to write a brief introduction to Ichimoku Number Theory as there has been a lot of questions (and confusion) about Ichimoku settings, time frames, etc.
The basis of Ichimoku as known to most is the 5 lines;
- Tenkan Line
- Kijun Line
- Senkou Span A (part of the Kumo)
- Senkou Span B (other part of the Kumo)
- Chikou Line
Almost 95% of the commentary, traders, educators and understanding of the ichimoku kinko hyo view this as the basis of Ichimoku.
This is actually incorrect.
The basis of Ichimoku are the three pillars which are listed below;
- Ichimoku Number Theory (also has to do with time)
- Ichimoku Wave Theory
- Ichimoku Price Theory
These are the three pillars of Ichimoku, but the root of all them is based on the Ichimokunumber theory.
4.5yrs
Goichi Hosada (founder of Ichimoku) in his development of Ichimoku, spent 4.5yrs of his study just on number theory. He studied pretty much every Eastern and Western theory under the sun, and eventually settled upon 3 basis numbers that he not only made the basis of Ichimoku theory, but underlined all of reality.
NOTE: I have an interesting follow up story to tell about this so remind me to discuss it later.
The three numbers he made as the basis for Ichimoku were 9, 17 and 26.
So the idea that the reason why the Kijun was set to 26 periods had to do with the former 6 day Japanese trading week is false.
The kijun was set to this measurement, along with the tenkan – based on his findings.
What this means is, for those who are asking the question about should we adjust the settings since we are not working with a full trading week, or are trading an intraday time frame, is in effect answered. Regardless of the trading week or time frame, we are best served from an Ichimoku perspective keeping the original settings. So hopefully this puts that one to rest and the kabbash on all the alternative theories.
The 10 Numbers
Although there were 3 basic numbers which underlie the entire set of Ichimoku numbers, there were 10 in all. They are listed below;
9
17
26
*These three represent the basic or simple numbers
33
42
65
76
129
172
200-257
Now if you do a quick calculation, 9+17 = 26. 26+17 = 42+1. 33+9 = 42. 33×2 = 65+1. 42+33 = 76-1. 65×2 = 129+1. 129+42 = 172-1. So all these numbers are interrelated and all comprised of the basic numbers in some way.
There are names for these numbers like one section, two sections, one period, etc. which I will get into a later date, but the basic three names are;
one section (9)
two sections (17)
1 period (26)
So if you see me using this terminology in my future Ichimoku posts, you will know what I am talking about.
Use in Practice
Ideally, Ichimoku number/time theory should be used in combination with the price and wave theories. So by itself, it is limited. But we can start the introduction with the basic concept. This is, the market is more likely to have a turning point or strong price action reaction around these numbers. They are not meant to be treated as fixed in stone numbers, but moreso higher probability turning or reaction points. An example of this is below;
AUDUSD Daily Chart
Now using the chart above, lets make some observations:
A-B = 41 (1 short of 42 bar move)
B-C = 16 (1 short of two section move/17)
C-D = 26 bars exactly or one period
D-E = 18 bars (1 short of two sections move)
E-F = 26 bars exactly or one period
Now this is just one chart and there will be many that are not so accurate upon first glance, and others that are. JPY pairs tend to move and respond more to the Ichimoku paramters and numbers since a great amount of Japanese traders are primarily trading Ichimoku strategies, and therefore are making trades based on it.
However, from my experience, this works on most pairs, commodities, and indices across the board, so quite potent and relevant. Keep in mind, it is important to understand we do not just apply the Ichimoku number/time theory in isolation, but mate it with Ichimoku price and wave theory. When combined, they become very highly predictive tools for catching major turning points, finding precise targets and determining future support and resistance levels, so powerful tools when yielded properly.
In Summary
Although this is just an introduction, I hope this gives you a better understanding of Ichimoku and how not to relate to it in just its basic form, but understand there is more going on than just the 5 lines. Anyone just teaching and professing the 5 lines as the be all end all of Ichimoku have very little understanding of it.
Goichi Hosada once said about this in the mid 80’s;
“Of the 10,000 or so people who are practicing and trading Ichimoku, only about 10 really understand it.”
Keep in mind, when he was saying it, he was including himself and his grandson, so not many. This is because people get too fascinated with the 5 lines and relate to that only without ever taking the time to understand what it is all about. Although the 5 lines are potent and informative by themselves, they are a small fraction of the Ichimoku picture and information contained in the Ichimokukinko hyo chart, so keep this in perspective.
I’ll be doing further introductory articles about these additional elements in the future over the next several months, but hopefully this sparks your curiosity and imagination for now.
For those wanting to learn how to trade the Ichimoku Cloud, Ichimoku time, Ichimoku price and Ichimoku wave theory, along with lifetime access to the Ichimoku traders forum, using rule-based systems, make sure to check out my Advanced Ichimoku Course.