Tag Archive for: price action

We have been getting a lot of questions from newer traders to forex on what is price action trading, and how one can utilize a forex price action strategy.  What we are going to cover is the traditional definition of price action, how we approach it differently than others, and how one can trade price action in the forex market.

What is Price Action Trading?

In the most traditional and technical sense, price action is simply price’s movement over time. This could be on any time compression from the 1min up to the weekly chart.  Any price fluctuation for any instrument is a form of price action. Forex price action trading is the science and art of trading these price fluctuations over time with little or no indicators. By learning to read price action and price’s movement over time, one can;

  • see where the institutional players are heavily involved
  • where they are driving the market
  • where are key support and resistance areas
  • where to find precise entry and exits
  • what is a key breakout
  • how to catch reversals
  • tops and bottoms
  • get into trends
  • what are impulsive vs. corrective moves
  • what kind of market environment you are in

and more.

This is why learning to read price action can be a critical component of one’s trading.

However, based on one’s approach to it, there are key differences in how one can trade it.

Various Ways to Approach Price Action

For the most part, all of the vanilla forex price action trading techniques you find out there are based upon patterns. Some of these patterns can be flags, triangles, double tops and bottoms, pinbars, inside bars, etc.  But if you are trading these patterns just because they are a pattern, then you are really failing to understand what price action is.

The proximate driver of price action is order flow which is the total summation of all buy and sell orders that are executed in the market.  It does not matter whether the market is moving because of a fundamental or technical reason.  Order flow is the most consistent force which causes the price action to change.

Because we do not have direct access to order flow, we have to learn how to read its sibling which is price action.  Price action has the fingerprints of order flow all over it. Since the most common driver of market movements come from order flow, then we have to learn how to read price action. This is how we approach it.

We trade forex price action strategies and patterns, but we do so with the key understanding that all price action is the result of order flow. And since order flow is what moves the markets, then we have to learn how to read order flow through price action. This how you can take your trading to the next level.

Trading Price Action

Price action trading in the forex market is a learnable skill that anyone can do.  With the proper training, mentor and study, one can successfully utilize a price action strategy.  In the forex market, as it is such a highly liquid market, trading becomes a lot easier because as you have more liquidity, you have a more technically pure market. There are various ways to trade price action in the forex market and we will share one method while explaining the order flow behind it.  We will compare this to trading the pattern by itself and show you how it fails.

Trading Just the Pattern By Itself

An inside bar pattern is a common price action pattern whereby all of the price action (body and wicks) of a candle are inside the range of the previous candle.  Here is a picture below showing an inside bar pattern:

Inside Bar Example

Now inside bars can be traded as both reversal and trend continuation techniques.  If one was just trading the pattern itself without understanding the order flow behind it, one could be seriously misled into trading a lesser inside bar simply because it was a pattern.  Just because a pattern or formation shows up does not mean we want to trade it.  We will give you an example.

Not All Inside Bars Are Created Equal

Lets say it is 12hrs before a major announcement, or a Friday, or a holiday of sorts. During such events, order flow diminishes as the institutional players leave the market until the risk events are over.  In these times, many inside bars can form since there is nobody in control of the market and no heavy liquidity or order flows.  If you were just trading inside bars because an inside bar showed up, you could be trading during a non-optimal time because the market will not take a direction till after the risk event. So this is one example of how trading a pattern because it shows up could be harmful to your trading.

This is why it is critical to understand the order flow behind the market and why the price action is forming the way it is.  This way you can determine who is in control (the buyers or sellers). You can determine if it is a powerful breakout or a false one. You can determine if the trend will likely continue or not. All of these are critical to trading price action and understanding how the order flow is creating such variables.

Below is a chart example of how not all inside bars are created equal and why you need to avoid some of them. Take a look at the forex price action trading chart below:

Chart showing how not all Inside Bars are Created Equal

In this price action trading chart, you are seeing the price action from 9am EST up to 1am EST (a total of 18hrs). Take a look at all the inside bars above. Here you have a total of 3 inside bars, yet they produced no special reaction. Price was stuck in a virtual 50pip range for over an 18hr period.

If you were just trading inside bars because it was a price action pattern, you would have had many false breakouts and likely many losing trades.  Now lets take a look at another example of how an inside bar can be used for a successful trade by reading the order flow behind it.

Taking a look at the chart below, we can see an inside bar forms after a very powerful with trend move. There could be several reasons for this but lets read the order flow behind it.


Chart showing Inside Bar forms after Very Powerful With Trend Move

  1. Price has been climbing for 4 days in a row suggesting the buyers are clearly in control.
  2. The last candle was a very strong candle and the largest in this move suggesting strong participation
  3. The inside bar comes right at the parity level suggesting the market is respecting it
  4. However, the selling in the inside bar is quite weak communicating the sellers have little sway
  5. Thus, the buyers are likely to continue the trend after this weak push back

So empowered with all this information on learning how to read the order flow behind the move and inside bar, we can make a much more informed decision on trading this inside bar.  We can trade this as a with-trend continuation move knowing the buyers are heavily in control.  And as we can see, the market climbed for over 300pips over the next three candles.

In Summary

Forex price action trading in its most technical form is price’s movement over time.  This is for any instrument on any time frame from tick charts up to monthly charts.  All price action is the result of order flow which is the total summation of all buying and selling.  All the price movements we see on the chart are derivatives of order flow.  In other words, order flow is the cause of all price movement and its sibling is price action. Since we do not have access to aggregate order flow in the forex market, learning to read price action and the order flow behind it is key.

In trading the forex market, we can trade price action patterns by themselves, but we can easily see how dis-empowering this is. Patterns by themselves are meaningless unless we can read the price action and order flow behind it. When we can read the order flow, we can determine where the institutional players are buying and selling, the speed of buying and selling, where are key support and resistance areas, when the market will continue the trend, when it will reverse and when key breakouts are happening. All of these are critical to the forex price action trading strategy. Our goal must be to learn how to read price action and the order flow behind it.

For those of you wanting to learn how to read price action and the order flow behind it, take a look at our Trading Masterclass course, where you will learn rule-based price action systems to trade the market.

What’s Inside?

  • The 4 stages to becoming a millionaire trader
  • What is the most important stage to making money trading?
  • What trading and mindset skills you need to become a profitable trader?

Since February of 2018, I’ve been envisioning how I want to build a complete trader training program that will teach you the stages, skills and mindset you’ll need to build to become a highly profitable trader who can pull a million dollars out of the market. I actually started working on this article over 6 months ago, and it has finally come to fruition.

If there was only one trading article you could read on my site, this would be it, so grab the popcorn as it’s a heavy hitter.

The goal of this article is to teach you about the 4 stages to becoming a millionaire trader. It’s designed to be a roadmap and structure for how to get from where you are now (likely struggling) to becoming a professional trader who can make a million dollars trading the markets.

millionaire-trader 2ndskiesforex

Before I get into the stages and roadmap, I have to explain a fundamental component and basis for this article.

Buddhism And Trading?

For the last 18 years, I’ve been training in Tibetan Buddhism, particularly in the Nyingma tradition. One of the amazing components of training in Buddhism is the ‘structure‘ and ‘stages‘ they clearly lay out for you. And a fundamental aspect of Buddhist practice has to do with the following formula:

Base, Path & Fruit

To explain this simply, the ‘base‘ is the starting point and foundation you build everything else upon.

It’s a fundamental level of direct experience and understanding you need to have to complete a specific aspect of your training. It’s arriving at the base which is what makes any practice, training or method work. Without this, you’re just wasting your time.

Keep in mind, it is not something you can arrive at ‘conceptually‘. What I mean by this is, it’s not something you can just read in a book and understand. You have to have the actual direct experience before you can progress any further.

Think of it like this:

Who would you trust more? Someone who’s lived in Buenos Aires (Argentina) their whole life, and knows the city, streets, traffic patterns, restaurants, various barrios, how ‘corruption’ affects their daily business, local customs, etc? Or someone who’s spent the last several years ‘reading‘ about Buenos Aires, looking things up on google, and watched youtube videos about it?

I’m guessing every time you’ll take the former hands down, which you’ll notice has nothing to do with ‘intelligence’. The person who’s lived in the city has a ‘direct experiential‘ knowledge about Buenos Aires that cannot be read in a book, watched in a video, or learned ‘conceptually’. It has to be a direct experience!

The same goes for the ‘base’ in trading. If it’s not a direct experience, you simply cannot progress any further. This is what I mean by ‘base’.

The ‘Path‘ is the practice, methods and training you use to get you to the direct experience. It needs to be a specific path which takes you from point A to B.

The path needs to be very specific and clearly demonstrated to produce real results.

The ‘Fruit‘ is what you get when you fully complete the ‘path‘ by using those practices, methods and trainings. It’s the ‘result‘ of what you get when you do the work, and it also should be specific.

If you have the base in place, then you can begin the journey. If not, you’ll need to arrive at the base (just like you have to arrive at ‘base camp’ to climb Mount Everest), before you can proceed any further. There is absolutely no way to skip steps here.

This entire training and article is built upon these principles of Base, Path and Fruit. Simply put, if you follow the structure I’m laying out here for you, your progression will naturally follow and you’ll see the results in your trading performance, mental execution and mindset.

Each of the 4 stages to becoming a professional trader has it’s own ‘Base, Path and Fruit’. Before you can progress to the 2nd stage, you’ll have to complete the first. There is no way around this! So if your goal is to make a million dollars trading, you’ll want to go straight for the first stage.

Becoming A Millionaire Trader (Stage 1)

The very first stage to becoming a millionaire trader is what I call the ‘Stage of Discipline‘.

The ‘base’ of this stage is having the direct experience and realization that:

a) your brain is currently not wired to trade successfully
b) you’ve had the experience of how your mind, emotions, and skill-set are currently not sufficient to consistently make money
c) have a real passion for trading, and
d) a mindset focused on growth

If you have those 4 things in place, you have the sufficient ‘base’ to begin the first stage.

By now, you’ve probably witnessed how your emotions affect your trading decisions (FOMO, not pulling the trigger, fear of losing money, risking too much/too little, etc). You’ve probably also noticed how you’re not consistently disciplined in your approach (system hopping, changing instruments, not sticking to your trading plan, etc).

Sound familiar?

If you’ve realized what you’re doing isn’t working, and that you’re lacking certain skills + training, but still have a passion to make money trading + are focused on growth, then congratulations – you’ve arrived at the base of the first stage. You’ve accepted the fact you (by yourself) cannot make this work, that you need a trading mentor + build new habits to succeed.

If you’re here, then you’re ready to actually begin the first stage, which is the stage of discipline.

The only thing you need to pack in your bags from here on out is a commitment to getting past this first stage. You don’t need to have the commitment to become a billionaire trader. Just having the commitment and openness to train is the minimal requirements to begin the first stage. Consider this stage to be your ‘apprenticeship‘ in becoming a successful trader.

The ‘fruit’ of the 1st stage of discipline is ‘consistency‘. If you don’t have consistency, you’ll never a) succeed in trading, and b) make it to the 2nd stage.

I say ‘consistency‘ is the ‘fruit’ of this stage, because it’s what you get when you have a solid level of discipline in place. Without this, there is no progression in trading, and you’ll continue to make the same mistakes over and over and over again.

Does this sound like your current experience?

Thus, discipline is what helps you exit out of that cycle (repeating the same mistakes). It’s the force which allows you to break through your current bad habits around trading. It’s what allows you to execute the same things over and over again, regardless of the emotions you feel, or obstacles you come against.

Consider discipline a type of ‘armor‘ against that which will knock you off your horse and derail your progress. Essentially, it protects you against yourself, and is absolutely necessary in trading..

From my experience, both in Buddhism, and in trading, it actually has to get worse before you give up your current approach (which likely isn’t working). You actually have to suffer to the point you realize “I no longer want to suffer like this. I’m open to trying it differently.” This realization creates the first real opening for you to get out of that vicious cycle of repeating the same mistakes over and over again.

The ‘path‘ of the stage of discipline is the most intricate and nuanced part of your trading progression. It’s the hardest part of the mountain to climb, and requires the most effort on your part. This is because you’re going to be fighting against much of what you currently are, which by definition, is insufficient to consistently make money trading. If you were already there, you’d be doing it.

The ‘path’ has to consist of a series of methods and skills (trading and mindset wise) you’ll need to build to get to the ‘fruit’.

Practices & Methods For the Stage of Discipline

As stated before, the goal or fruit of the stage of discipline is consistency. This means consistency in your execution, decision making process, trading strategies you are using, what instruments you trade, risk management, etc.

Consistency, however, has a ‘root cause‘, meaning the root of what it grows out of. As I’ve stated before, consistency can only come from the mind. If you do not have consistent thoughts, thinking patterns, neurological structures, mindset, (etc) there will be no consistency in your trading. Hence your focus for building ‘consistency’ has to primarily consist of (and begin with) your mind.

If you are currently not experiencing any sort of consistency in your trading, then congratulations, you’ve discovered the root cause of your inconsistency (your mind). Now your initial goal in trading and becoming consistent may seem counter-intuitive, but I’m guessing you’ll find it makes sense when you fully understand it.

Your initial goal in trading should be to become a ‘consistentlylosing trader. Now many of you are likely thinking “I consistently lose now, why would I want this?” While that may be true in ‘form’, it’s not true in ‘essence’. What I mean by this is, while you may be consistently losing money, there are likely many components of your performance which are not ‘consistent’.

Some of these components can be:

  1. Risk Management – are you consistently risking the same % per trade? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’.
  2. Trading Instruments – are you consistently trading the same instruments till you have a sufficient baseline to make a quantifiable decision? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  3. Times of the day – are you consistently trading the same times of the day? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  4. Pre-trade preparation – are you consistently preparing mentally for your trading day with the same routine? If not, you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  5. Pre-trade analysis – do you have the same consistent routines and methods (price action, ichimoku cloud trading, etc) for finding trading setups? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  6. Post-trade analysis – do you have the same consistent routines and methods for analyzing your completed trades? If not, you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  7. Reinforcing successful trading habits – do you have the same consistent routines and methods for reinforcing successful trading habits? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  8. Trading plan – do you have a detailed trading plan which has clear instructions for how to trade, how to train, and how to progress in your trading? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’

I could go on as there are many other variables you’ll need to ‘lose consistently’, but my guess is, when you read the above and really take it all in, you’ll realize that you’ve been ‘losing money’ consistently, but not ‘losing consistently’. There a difference.

It takes discipline and a courage to say “I’m going to focus on consistently losing”, just like it takes discipline and commitment to not hit the target consistently in archery. But that is your initial goal in archery (not just hitting the target), but ‘consistency’ in your technique, process and movements. If there is no consistency in your stance, alignment, breathing, holding of the riser (main bow structure), how you grip the bow string, how far you pull it back, etc…there will be no consistency in where your arrows land.

(Image: Brady Ellison – #1 US Archer – Recurve Bow)

Trading is no different!

Hence in sounding somewhat masochistic, your initial goal in the first stage of discipline is to learn to ‘lose consistently’. By doing this, you’re building the foundation which the entire house you want to build will rest upon. Then you can focus on being a consistently break-even trader. Then you can focus on being a consistently profitable trader.

But before all this, you’ll need to focus on building the prerequisite trading skills, which can be defined as the following:

1) Trading Methodology & Approach

There are only 4 major trading methodologies, or approaches to the markets. They can be any of the following; 1) technical, 2) fundamental, 3) sentiment, 4) flow based.

Now any one of these can fall into broad categories, such as (discretionary, rule-based, hybrid, quantitative).

The approach I teach is a ‘technical‘ model based upon understanding price action context and the order flow behind it. I teach this method because it can be applied to any instrument, time frame or environment, and is based upon what all trading decisions are based upon (*information).

Regardless of whether you are a technical, fundamental, sentiment or flow based trader, all trading decisions are derived from ‘information’. Eventually that information has to be converted into an actual trade (and thus order). All ‘activated’ orders become ‘actualized’ order flow. And order flow is the most proximate driver of price action.

This is why I teach price action context and the order flow behind it, because I’m teaching you a ‘root’ method which communicates the footprint of all orders and trading decisions. By understanding these, you can give yourself the highest probability for trading with the dominant order flow in the market, which is what drives all price action. By doing this, you can learn to trade with the larger players who will most likely dominate directional price movements (which is what we want to capitalize on).

price-action-2ndskiesforex

Price Action Trading Skills

There are many price action trading skills you’ll need to build, and it is important not to learn these skills out of order. I often find traders trying to learn more advanced skills before they’ve built a solid set of foundational skills. One common example is struggling traders trying to trade counter trend before they’ve learned to trade with trend (with the latter being easier).

Now assuming you understand what candlestick charts are, time frames, and what the basics of price action are, then you’ll need to build your core skills of price action. In price action trading, the first set of ‘core’ skills you’ll need to learn is what I call the 3 pillars of price action context.

I’ve talked about the first pillar of price action context, which is being able to identify impulsive and corrective moves. The reason why this is the base pillar is it gives you the most amount (and most nuanced) information about the price action and order flow happening right now.

It tells you who’s in control of the market (buyers/sellers), and who’s not. It tells you how to read momentum in the price action without any indicators. It tells you when are optimal times to take profit, and not take profit. It tells you when you’ll need to be patient, and when you need to make a quick decision. It tells you when trading breakouts are more likely (or more probable) to occur, and when they are less likely to succeed.

impulsive-and-corrective-price-action 2ndskiesforex

There is a lot more impulsive and corrective moves can tell you about price action, but by learning these, you start to learn how to think like a price action trader, and see the dominant order flow behind it. This is why it’s the first pillar. If you want to learn about the other two pillars of price action context and the order flow behind it, then check out my price action course where we talk about this extensively.

Now before you can even practice these skills and making actual trading decisions, you’ll need to first be able to identify (with 90+% accuracy) these 3 pillars of price action context. My formula for how to build your trading skills (and price action skills) is simple:

Sim, then Demo, then Live

What this means is, after you’ve watched videos and understood (conceptually) the components of an impulsive and corrective move, you’ll want to start building your pattern recognition skills in the charts. You build these pattern recognition skills so you can identify them automatically, and thus, sub-consciously.

If you’ve ever looked at a chart and had the thoughts, “Is this a such and such pattern? I’m not sure, how do I know? I know it said it has to have x, y and z, but is this part the same, or is it different…

Have you had this experience before? If so, then your skills are not ‘sub-conscious‘. The reason why this is important is you want to use your cognitive thinking, analysis and bandwidth for finding profitable trade setups. If you have all those thoughts going through your mind, then congratulations – you’ve now realized your skills are not sub-conscious, so that should be your next goal.

By starting with a trading simulator, you can have the opportunity to watch the price action unfold, pause it, take time to read it correctly, then resume the historical price action on the chart unfold.

trading simulator 2ndskiesforex

This is why sim is the best place to start, because on demo, the charts just keep moving on whether you got the analysis correct or not. Just like pilots start off in a flight simulator to make sure they have the basic functional skills to fly a plane, you also need to start off on a simulator.

By looking over thousands of candles and charts in a short period of time via a trading simulator, you can increase your learning curve, and accelerate your pattern recognition skills, particularly being able to identify impulsive and corrective price action.

Once you’ve seen enough impulsive and corrective moves, your brain will eventually assimilate these patterns into its database, and be able to identify them on any instrument, time frame or environment with ease (and without doubt).

After you’ve mastered all 3 pillars individually, the next step is to assimilate them together into one cohesive picture (or gestalt). The goal here is to be able to easily identify all three of the pillars of price action context, then be able to come up with a ‘most probable’ direction of the market.

I say ‘most probable’ because this is a mindset you’ll need to develop to make it out of the first stage of trading. Beginners try to use ‘confirmation price action signals‘ because they think they ‘confirm’ the trade and direction. But 1, 2 or 3 candles is a small amount of price action + order flow, and rarely ever dictates the next move (~1% of the time).

Hence you have to shift your mindset from ‘confirming‘ (because there is no certainty in the market) to ‘probabilities‘, because probabilities is all you are ever dealing with. There is no certainty, and never will be when it comes to price action and the next direction. This is why I say confirmation price action signals will crush your account. If these so called ‘confirmation price action signals’ actually ‘confirmed’ anything, there would be ample statistics and data to back that up. Yet nobody to date has been able to provide this (which should tell you everything you need to know about them).

Now while you’re building your core price action trading skills, you’ll also need to build your mindset skills. To succeed in trading, you’ll need a successful mindset which will keep you on track when things are challenging, and help you execute what you need to when your trades and emotions are really affecting your thoughts and trading decisions.

Mindset Skills to Build Consistency In Your Mind

If you’re working towards consistency in your mind, there are several core mind/mindset skills you’ll need to build. For the purposes of brevity and not turning this into a long novel, we’ll talk about the 3 most important mindset skills you’ll need to build consistency in your mind and make money trading.

The first mindset skill you’ll want to build is understanding how the brain works. By understanding how your brain and mind work, you can accelerate your learning process by working with how your brain functions, not against it.

One of the most fundamental aspects of the brain is its ability to re-wire itself. This principle is called neuroplasticity. 

Neuroplasticity can be summed up by the following phrase:

“Neurons that fire together, wire together”

Neurons are the basic neural cells you have in your brain. They connect to each other through axons and dendrites. By connecting to each other, they can pass information via electrical signals.

If you want to wire in a new trading habit, you’ll have to activate neural circuits which do this over and over again. By doing this over and over again, they strengthen those connections till they become ‘dominantly wired‘. Another term for ‘dominantly wired’ is ‘habit‘. Anything you have dominantly wired in your brain is a habit. So by firing the same neurons together, they wire together and form specific habits you’ll want and need to build a successful mindset.

This is where understanding how the brain works helps.

There are 7 components to neuroplasticity, but there is one fundamental ‘root‘ component behind all neurological wiring: Repetition.

By repeating the same thing (and thinking pattern) over and over again, you can wire in the trading habits you’re looking for.

It’s why basketball players will shoot free throws every day in practice. It’s why quarterbacks (American football) will practice throwing the football over and over again, so that their mechanics are automatic and sub-conscious. It’s why Bruce Lee said “I fear the man who practices one kick 10,000 times“, because such a person has that has practiced a kick 10,000x likely can throw it with speed, precision and power.

Repetition is the most fundamental building block to wiring new trading habits. Thus, understanding how the brain works is a fundamental mindset skill you’ll need to develop.

The second mindset skill you’ll need to build is what I call the GBT mindset. GBT = getting better today (also known as a ‘growth’ mindset).

growth-mindset 2ndskiesforex

Notice the focus here isn’t ‘profitable trading now‘. It’s a trading mindset that works every single day to get better. By getting better today at your skills, you eventually build enough skills and competence to make money trading.

The GBT mindset is one that is focused on the process, and has a well designed process + skills + goals they are focused on. The process aspect is the methods and plan of action you engage to build your skills, which allow you to reach your goals.

If you’re just focusing on the results “dang, I’m still not profitable yet“, then you’re jumping too far ahead and not focused on what you need to succeed (skills: 1) technical, 2) risk management and 3) mindset). Hence your ‘goal’ right now if you’re not a profitable trader should be to build the skills to make money trading.

This is why you need the GBT mindset, and an approach which focuses on building your skills step by step, and getting better today at your current level of skills. Then once these are sub-conscious, you take on the next challenge.

The third mindset skill you’ll need to build to become a consistently profitable trader is ‘self-awareness‘.

Now I’m not saying you have to become a zen monk to become a good trader. But you’ll need to develop a minimum level of self-awareness to make money trading.

Why?

Because if you really understand how the brain works, you’ll realize you are actually fighting your own brain and evolution to build a successful trading mindset.

How so?

Let me demonstrate this with a few key brain facts:

  1. You have about 500% more neurons for finding the negative vs the positive
  2. You are more likely to choose an immediate reward (even if it is a lesser reward) than delay gratification (for a larger reward)
  3. Your emotions heavily influence how you interpret (and code) an experience, memory or event

Now lets examine these 3 brain facts.

The first one should be obvious as to how it can affect your trading. If you are 5x more likely to notice the negative vs the positive, what do you think that means when you make a mistake, or a trade starts to go against you? How do you think that will affect your thinking in real time when you have to make clear, calm trading decisions? Do you think it will help, or hurt your decision making process?

Ever experienced a trade that was a winner but starts to go against you? Were you totally relaxed, or feeling ‘stress’ when it started to pull back? And do you think that stress affected your analysis and decision making? This tendency to notice the negative vs the positive is called the negativity bias.

What about the 2nd brain fact? Ever chose to exit a winning trade too early? This is your brain working against you. If you’re more likely to choose a lesser immediate reward, don’t you think that will become problematic in making decisions which will lead toward long term success and trading habits?

In terms of the 3rd brain fact regarding emotions, just think about the majority of emotions you’ve experienced in trading. Have they been mostly positive or negative? Have they mostly helped or hurt your trading process, thinking and mindset? Do you even know how to use emotions to your advantage in trading? My guess is no.

Hopefully it is becoming clear why self-awareness is key. You can determine if the self-talk that’s going through your mind is accurate (“something doesn’t feel right about this trade“), misleading (FOMO, fear of pulling the trigger, etc), or not important (“I wonder how many people liked my last tweet”).

By building self-awareness, particularly around trading, you can learn to know when you need to stick to your discipline and/or trust your gut instincts. You can also learn how to self-regulate your mind, emotions and psychophysiology so you can make the most optimal trading decisions.

Simply put, if your biology and psychophysiology is off (heart rate, breathing, skin conductance, etc), the chances of you making a bad trading decision go up exponentially! And more often than not, the difference between making money trading and losing money trading comes down to the trading mistakes you make.

Becoming A Clutch Performer

The term ‘clutch athlete‘ is actually misleading. When the game is on the line, the statistics are clear. The best performers are not performing at their peak, or above their baseline. They’re actually performing below their baseline. The difference is, they make the least amount of mistakes compared to their baseline, while the non-clutch performers make more. This is why specific athletes are clutch, because when the game is on the line, they make the least amount of mistakes, and thus outperform everyone else.

Trading is a peak performance endeavor that is skill based. There is no way around it!

This means you’ll have to learn how to become self-aware when trading gets intense. If you want to make a million dollars trading, you’ll need the 3 mindset skills I’ve listed above when you have 5 or 6 figures on the line.

By becoming more self-aware, you’ll start to build the psychological and mindset skills to become a consistent trader who makes ‘consistent’ trading decisions, regardless of the pressure or challenges you’re experiencing while trading. You’ll be able to direct your cognitive and mental activity in the right direction, while avoiding getting swept up by your emotions, or negative self-talk.

There are many ‘methods’ and practices you can use to build self-awareness. I teach several of these in my traders mindset course. But one method we focus on in our traders mindset course is meditation, which is scientifically proven to help improve your neurological and cognitive performance in a variety of trading activities.

meditation for trading 2ndskiesforex

I’ve been practicing meditation since 2000, done over 10,000 hours of meditation practice. I’ve completed a 1 year meditation retreat. I’ve completed 3 one month retreats, about 150+ weekend meditation retreats, and trained with the same meditation teacher since 2001. Needless to say, it seems fair to say I have a ‘solid’ training in meditation.

I recognized early on how important meditation is to my trading mindset, and thus created a 12 lesson meditation series specifically for traders. The goal of this practice is to build self-awareness, increase your emotional IQ, and help you enhance your brain’s functioning, which meditation has been scientifically proven to do. If you want to learn more about how to use meditation to become a better trader, then check out my traders mindset course.

Now there are many techniques you can use to build a successful trading mindset, but these are three most ‘fundamental‘ I’d highly recommend you focus on. There are other mindset skills you’ll need to complete the first stage of trading (discipline) and get to the fruit (consistency), which could take me an entire book to write and flesh out. But I feel I’ve given you a glimpse of the first stage of trading.

Getting Past the Hardest Stage (*And Not Jumping Ahead)

From my experience in working with thousands of traders, helping many traders become profitable, I’ve seen how every trader which has failed to become a profitable trader has never completed the first stage. They’ve either a) never built the mindset skills to become a ‘consistent’ trader, b) never built the core foundational skills, or c) tried to skip various aspects of both.

From all the students I’ve trained that have become profitable traders, they’ve all completed the first stage without fail. I’ve yet to meet a profitable trader who is able to make money consistently while skipping the first stage. There is no way around it!

Now if you want to learn about the other 3 stages to becoming a million dollar trader, I’m doing a private member webinar this weekend (Dec. 22nd) for all my course members. After the webinar, I’ll be making this webinar available to all my members so they can follow this road map and become consistent traders.

If you want to learn how to become a member, click here.

Now I hope you’ve gotten a tremendous amount of value out of this article, and use it as a guide and road map to your successful and profitable trading.

Please make sure to leave a comment, and share this with any friends or forums you feel will benefit from learning about the stages to becoming a million dollar trader.

Until then, may you see real growth in your trading and mindset.

If you want to learn how to read candlestick charts, find high probability candlestick patterns, and learn to read the price action + order flow, then make sure to watch this video.

In this video on candlestick chart trading, I cover some of the most important patterns you can learn to read in the charts and price action.

I further explain in detail two of my core candlestick chart patterns for trading forex, stocks, commodities, global indices and CFD’s.

⏰TIMESTAMPS⏰

0:27 – all trading decisions will come down to this

1:00 – the most proximate driver of price action is order flow

1:57 – why I don’t trade candlestick patterns and instead trade this

2:36 – my most important model for trading candlesticks and price action

3:40 – what is an impulsive move?

8:36 – what is a corrective move?

13:16 – live trade in the AUDJPY

17:48 – live trade Swiss Index (SIX)

Read more

What’s Inside?

  • What are some forex day trading strategies you can use?
  • Do you recommend any rules for day trading forex?
  • Will I need particular skills to day trade the forex market?

A Personal Note From Me:

chris-capre-profitable-trader-2ndskiesforex

I’ve never been a trader who could only trade higher time frames, or only lower time frames. Technically I could, and I’ve had to depending upon where I live in the world + what time zone I’m in.

But when it comes to making money trading, you have to do what is most natural to how you think and perform. What I realized about myself 15 years ago while working as an FX broker, was that my mind likes to be active. My mind performs best when I’m be working on both short term and long term activities.

I also feel like having both skills gives me way more options and opportunities to pull money out of the market.

My suggestion for you is to find that which is most natural to your every day thinking, mindset and skill sets. For some of you, it will be day trading only. For many others, it will be swing trading or position trading on the higher time frames. And for a smaller portion of you, that will be a marriage between the two.

For those of you that are naturally attracted to day trading, or are interested in learning the skills and upsides to day trading – read on.

The Benefits of Day Trading

A healthy way to look at day trading is examine a parallel profession and skill – that of online poker players.

Trading and online poker have skill-sets which mirror each other incredibly (risk management, controlling your emotions, calculating probabilities, etc). Hence, if you have good skills as a trader, you most likely have a solid set of skills to make money in online poker (and vice versa).

I’ve spent many a nights with my trading friends playing poker in casinos and various private tables.  75% of the time, we make money. The last time I went into a casino poker room with another trading friend of mine, I doubled my buy in, and a lot of that success had to do with my skills as a profitable trader.

When you look at online poker players, you’ll almost never see a poker player only playing one table. Over 80% of them are playing multiple tables at the same time, with some I know handling 16 tables at a time for hours on end.

Now you have to ask yourself: why do online poker players prefer to play more tables vs less or just one?

The answer is simple: MATH! If I am a good poker player, and have an edge on one table, then if I can repeat the edge across multiple tables, I can make more money.

The same goes for day trading. If you have a profitable trading strategy and skill set, the more trades you make, the more money you make as that edge plays out more x’s per day.

More trades (technically) =’s more opportunities to make money. This is one advantage that day trading has over swing trading.

Another major advantage of day trading is you get more feedback faster.

The more trades you make with a particular strategy, the faster you learn the in’s and out’s of that strategy, such as what environments it works best in, and which ones it performs poorly with.

By also exposing yourself to a lot more candles, price action context and structures, you’re creating a more abundant data set to digest, memorize and work with.

I could list a whole host of other benefits (such as not having over-night risk), but for now, I’m guessing you can see why day trading has some serious benefits.

For now, let’s jump into a few tips, tactics and strategies for day trading.

Day Trading Tip #1: Do Not Trade Against These!

The first core model I use to trade price action context on any time frame, particularly day trading, is impulsive and corrective price action.

impulsive-and-corrective-price-action

For those of you that are new to trading impulsive and corrective price action, click on that link above.

Now assuming you know what an impulsive move is in the forex market, I’d like you to do an experiment:

Look at all your losses, particularly the ones where you opened the trade, and it pretty much went negative right off the bat and ended up a loss.

When you look at the charts leading up to your entry, and how the price action acted after, count how many of them you were trading against impulsive moves. I’m guessing in the majority of those losses you were trading against them.

If you find this to be true, then you want to be trading with impulsive moves as much as possible when day trading.

Day Trading Tip #2: Always Trade With A Minimum Risk vs Reward Over This

In one of my latest articles, I talked about 6 trading statistics you should know if you want to make money trading. One of them was from a study done by FXCM, whereby they noticed traders who had a 1:1 risk to reward ratio were 300% more likely to profit vs traders who used negative risk:reward ratios.

risk-reward-profit-stats fxcm

This statistic applied to all time frames and types of traders (day and swing traders). Because you are more active day trading, you’re applying your edge more often in the forex market. Hence you have to be super on point in making sure the math works out in your favor as you’re trading at a faster pace, and thus exposing your equity more often to risk.

Hence, use nothing less than a 1:1 risk to reward ratio when day trading.

Day Trading Tip #3: Limit The Number of Instruments You Trade

Because of the time sensitive nature of day trading, every calculation, analysis and decision you make must be done faster. This increased speed of processing in your brain also taxes your working memory and thus increases your cognitive load.

To reduce this strain on your brain, I’d suggest day trading a few instruments or forex pairs, possibly even one.

If you’re day trading only the forex market, I’d suggest one major pair, one minor pair, and one exotic to add some extra spice 🙂

Ideally you are choosing forex pairs which are most correlated with your region and time of day. So USD and European currencies if you are in the UK/Europe/North America. For Asia/Australia/New Zealand, I’d suggest at least 2 currencies from your region (JPY, AUD, NZD, CNY, SGD, KRW) and minimally one USD pair.

If you’re day trading stocks, I’d recommend one or two indices from your region, and at least one consistently volatile stock from your region. You can also look for an ETF as well.

If you’re day trading commodities, I’d recommend a natural resource, such as WTI/Nat Gas, one precious metal, such as gold/silver, and one agricultural product.

The number of instruments isn’t fixed. A good rule of thumb is to only trade as many instruments as you can mentally handle. If it’s too taxing and stressing on your brain, you’re likely trading too much.

Day Trading Tip #4: Have A Max Risk Profile

I’m guessing many of you struggling traders have experienced how easy it is to get carried away with risk, particularly when you’re on a winning a losing streak. To keep guardrails in place so you don’t start over-trading and going off the reservation, I recommend having a max risk profile as a day trader.

A max risk profile is simply creating a line in the sand that once your losses for that day, week, month are passed, you stop trading for the time being and regroup.

If you could only have one max risk profile, it would be a max risk per month. If you are open to having two of them (my minimum suggestion), it would be a max risk per month and a max risk per trade. A more robust risk profile would be to have a max risk per month/per day/per trade.

I always recommend risking a fixed % per trade, and generally do not recommend more than 1% per trade (in the beginning, ideally <1% per trade). Per day, I’d recommend no more than 4-5R, so 4-5x your max risk per trade. Per month I’d recommend a max risk of 9.9% per month.

Why 9.9%? Because the statistics show that for every double digit draw-down you have per month, your chances of recovering your account just back to break even decline exponentially.

Having max risk profiles will protect you long term and keep you in the game when things are tough so you can bounce back and get to profitability.

Day Trading Tip #5: Plan This Ahead of Time

As a day trader, you’re often using a lot of working memory + brain processing power in your pre-frontal cortex for all the decisions/calculations/analysis you have to do in real time with alacrity.

This can increase the cognitive load and thus tax your brain, leaving you with little bandwidth to make important trading decisions in real time.

Because of this, I’d recommend planning these two things ahead of time:

#1: Plan your trades ahead of time. This includes doing your price action context analysis ahead of time, along with identifying your key support and resistance levels and the types of trade setups you want to take ahead of time.

Of course, we’re always flexible to take new trades should they emerge, but we want to plan as much of this ahead of time so when it comes time to trade, you’re already prepared and can just pull the trigger.

#2: Plan If/Than scenarios ahead of time. Some examples of if/than scenarios you can prepare for are:

-your trend direction gets reversed
-you get stopped out and the market is showing a reversal setup
-the market breaks a key level you think will hold

By planning these ahead of time, you avoid being married to one side of the market, thus remaining flexible so you can take advantage should the market change directions when you least expect it.

Day Trading Tip #6: A Good Strategy Can Be As Simple As Targeting 15-20 Pips A Day

Since you are wanting to day trade, it’s important you are going for targets which can easily be hit within a day’s session, or ideally a 24hr period. What this translates to is going after targets which are consistently hit on any given day.

Thus whatever instrument you trade, whether it be forex, stocks, indices, or whatever, that the average daily movement and volatility for that instrument makes it easy for you to find trades that will hit those targets.

A simple way to do this is to pull up the ATR indicator on a daily forex chart for your instrument and set it to 5. This will calculate the average daily range per day over a 5 day period.

In the example below for the EURUSD, the 5 period ATR on the daily chart is 50 pips with a high of 69 pips over this year and a low of 30 pips.

eurusd daily atr 2ndskiesforex

What this means is, if you want to day trade the EURUSD pair, you could simply go for 15-20 pips a day which should be a relatively easy target to hit.

Obviously you’re going to need a strategy to help you capture those 15-20 pips per day, and we teach many strategies like this in our price action course. But as you can see, this is a relatively workable target to go for each day with the right price action skills in place.

In Closing

There is so much more I could talk about when it comes to day trading forex, or any market for that matter. But the key points to remember are:

  1. Day trading has some major advantages over swing trading when it comes to multiplying your income
  2. Day trading also has some specific challenges swing traders do not face with the time pressures involved
  3. Only day trade if it suits you personally and feels natural
  4. Don’t trade against impulsive moves whenever possible, and make sure to plan out ahead of time as much as possible
  5. Create a proper risk profile to protect you when you’re not performing at your best
  6. Go for reasonable targets that can be achieved easily within a day

If you learn to do this above well, along with all the tips and tactics I mentioned above, with the right training and mindset, you can find it a very profitable endeavor.

Some of my best trades were day trades that took no less than a couple hours to hit their profit targets. It’s a nice and rewarding feeling to grind out several profitable day trades over a few hours, then go out and enjoy the rest of your day as you made your money.

If you’re interested in learning more about day trading forex (or any market for that matter), in our price action course, we teach strategies and skills to day trade on any instrument, time frame or environment.

My hope with this article is that you who are naturally inclined to day trade find it much more workable and profitable through the methods and tactics we shared above.

With that being said, please make sure to leave your comments and feedback as we’re always looking to hear from our community.

Until then – good health and success to you in trading and life.

What’s Inside?

  • What is Dynamic Support and Resistance?
  • How I can find Dynamic Support and Resistance in the forex market?
  • What is the Ichimoku Cloud?

In my last article, I talked about how forex traders can find the best key support and resistance levels. This is a critical component to understanding price action trading. But what is less talked about, yet critical for your trading is understanding and finding Dynamic Support and Resistance.

In this article, I’m going to help you understand what is the difference between ‘static‘ and ‘dynamic‘ support and resistance. From here I’m going to talk about why you need to understand dynamic support and resistance, along with give you two methods for identifying and trading dynamic support and resistance.

static and dynamic support and resistance

What is the difference between static and dynamic support and resistance?

When we talked about key support and resistance levels in our last article, you should have noticed a pattern. You should have noticed all those levels were ‘horizontal‘. While many key support and resistance levels are horizontal, many of them are ‘evolving‘, which means they are ‘dynamic‘. Dynamic support and resistance levels, or areas, where the market can pull back into and find support w/o needing to be at a horizontal support or resistance level.

This happens because:

1) The market is evolving, and sometimes buying/selling interest changes in a way that isn’t at pre-designed levels

2) Momentum in trends is dynamic, along with the order flow

Momentum can often be the underlying energy behind trends or movements (kind of like running downhill).

There are other reasons, but the key point is that you get the underlying idea, and can integrate this ‘conceptual knowledge‘ into your trading. We’ll get to this later in the article.

But to summarize:

a) Static support or resistance levels aren’t moving, and are horizontal in nature

b) Dynamic support or resistance levels are moving, and are not horizontal in nature

Now that we know what dynamic support and resistance is, we can move onto the next section.

How I can find dynamic support and resistance in the forex market (or any market for that matter)?

There are many methods to find dynamic s/r, but we’ll talk about two that I prefer to use.

Dynamic Support and Resistance Strategy #1: The 20 EMA

The 20 EMA is one of my favorite choices for discovering dynamic support and resistance as it does a really good job of being ‘balanced‘. What do I mean by being ‘balanced’? So the 20 EMA (exponential moving average) tracks the last closing prices of the candles for the last 20 periods. It gives more weight to the most recent closes (hence why it’s exponential), with less as you go through the series of 20 candles.

Below is a good graphic of how it differs from a ‘simple’ moving average which weighs the data the same regardless of time.

exponential moving average vs simple 2ndskiesforex

EMA’s (exponential moving averages) are balanced (IMO) because it does a great job of detecting the more recent momentum and changes in the price action, while at the same time taking into account some of the longer term movements in the price action, so well placed in between those two forces (hence ‘balanced’).

Below is a 1hr chart on the EURUSD showing the 20 EMA and how the price action related to it.

dynamic support and resistance forex market 2ndskiesforex

Notice how the price action touched the 20 EMA several times (navy line) which could have offered you great trade setups to get into the market with trend?

Another example is below on the S&P 500 on the 4hr chart.

s&p 500 dynamic support and resistance 2ndskiesforex

In this chart of the S&P 500, you can see how the 20 EMA offered some great trade setups both with trend, and counter-trend as the market reversed.

It’s important to note the 20 EMA can act as a solid method for finding dynamic support and resistance on any time frame.

Dynamic Support and Resistance Method #2: The Ichimoku Cloud

In the first 3 years of my trading, I spent the majority of my time learning, studying and trading two strategies:

#1 price action

#2 the ichimoku cloud

If you want to learn about how I trade price action, click here to watch

However for now I’d like to talk about the ichimoku cloud (called ‘ichimoku kinko hyo’) roughly translates from japanese to ‘one glance balanced chart‘. It was created by Goichi Hosada many decades ago. It is one of the most commonly used methods for analysis and trading strategies in Japan, and there are many great ichimoku traders who were considered some of the best analysts of their time (i.e. Hidenobu Sasaki).

ichimoku cloud 2ndskiesforex

To briefly sum up the ichimoku cloud, the goal of this approch is to communicate in one shot (or ‘glance’) the following:

1) what is the trend in the market

2) what is the underlying momentum (or lack thereof)

3) what are future key support and resistance levels

You read that last part right (“future”). One of the primary goals of the ichimoku cloud is to give you an idea where future support and resistance levels will be (and how much there is).

I’m not going to do a whole lesson on the ichimoku cloud. If you want to learn more about the ichimoku cloud and how it’s constructed, click here.

But for our purposes, just understand that the ichimoku cloud measures a) momentum {a form of dynamic support or resistance}, and b) future support and resistance levels.

Below is a chart to show you how this works.

ichimoku dynamic support and resistance 2ndskiesforex

In the above S&P 500 ichimoku cloud chart on the 4hr time frame. There are several ways the ichimoku kinko hyo can act as ‘dynamic’ support or resistance. But for our purposes, in this uptrend, notice how the Tenkan Line (green line) did a good job acting as support on minor pullbacks.

The tenkan line does this well because it’s meant to track the underlying momentum in the price action. If the trend is strong, and has good momentum, the tenkan can often act as support or resistance. If momentum is weak, you’ll see this in the tenkan line by price crossing it more frequently, and not respecting it. This should tell you momentum is ‘weak’ or ‘weakening’ (depending upon the ichimoku context).

You’ll also notice the kijun line (red line) which is supposed to track the underlying trend in the price action. Notice how as price pulled back deeper in the uptrend, it stopped at the kijun several times, offering potential trade setups to get in this with trend.

There are many ways ichimoku is great for helping you find ‘dynamic’ support or resistance, but these are two good methods for now.

NOTE: If you want to learn more about the ichimoku cloud, click here for several free videos on learning more about the ichimoku cloud.

In Summary

While we spent a good amount of time recently talking about horizontal key support and resistance levels, today we’ve showed you how there is a different form of support and resistance which expresses itself as ‘dynamic‘.

We’ve also given you methods for finding dynamic support and resistance, along with showing you how the ichimoku cloud can provide an alternative (and useful) trading method.

Now one thing I forgot to ask is, have you ever looked at a chart and had a hard time finding key support and resistance levels?

Usually when I look at the price action on a chart, and I find it’s pulling back to areas where there doesn’t appear to be any support or resistance, I often try to see if the market is respecting ‘dynamic’ levels vs horizontal ones. Often times when I do this, the chart becomes more clear as this change in perspective gives me new trading opportunities I was missing before.

If you’d like to learn more about the ichimoku cloud, don’t forget to check out my ichimoku trading course. And if you want to learn more about forex dynamic support and resistance, take a look at my price action course.

Now Your Turn

Have you had this experience of not being able to find key dynamic or static support and resistance levels, or why the market pulled back to where it did? What did you learn about forex dynamic support and resistance levels from this article?

Make sure to leave your comments below, along with ask any questions you have on the subject. And don’t forget to tweet/like this article on your favorite social media so others can benefit from it.

Until then, I’ll look forward to hearing from you.

What’s Inside Today’s Trading Article?

  • Let’s talk about breakout strategies
  • What are some consistent breakout patterns?
  • When trading breakout patterns, how can I avoid false breaks?

Ever heard the statements “most breakouts fail” or “you should avoid trading breakouts“?

Let me just put the kibosh on that by sharing with you Exhibit A.

Behold…Exhibit A – winner of the 2017 World Cup Futures Championship, Stefano Serafini, who won with an impressive +217% return (see below).

stefano serafini breakout trader 2ndskiesforex

What was Stefano Serafini’s main trading strategy to generate such an impressive return? Trading intra-day breakouts!

So do me a favor, the next time you see some fake trading guru telling you “most breakouts fail” or “you should avoid trading breakouts“, please share the link to this post.

For today’s article, I’m going to share with you two breakout strategies to help increase your accuracy & profitability in trading breakouts. I’m also going to share how you can use this to avoid any false breaks and getting stopped out.

Let’s jump in.

Breakout Strategies

While there are many types of breakout strategies you can classify breakout trades into two broad categories:

  1. The momentum breakout setup
  2. The breakout pullback setup

For today’s breakout trade article, we’re going to focus on the second breakout strategy (breakout pullback setup) as it’s much easier for traders to learn and execute because it requires less skill.

NOTE: If you want to learn how to trade momentum breakout setups, then check out my Trading Masterclass course where I teach you how to trade this for maximum profit.

The Breakout Pullback Setup

Before you can even make a breakout pullback setup, you’ll need to identify some of the consistent breakout patterns that manifest in the price action.

By learning these, you’ll be able to identify A+ setups which will increase your accuracy and profitability in trading them.

There are many things you can do to identify an A+ breakout pullback setup, but there are 2 things I’ll give you to work with for now.

Breakout Pattern #1 – Finding a key support or resistance level with a minimum of two touches

Why two touches?

While the market may hit a key support or resistance level once, which indicates at least some potential order flow and institutional players wanting to hold that level, two touches indicates a greater probability and amount of order flow behind that level.

trading forex breakouts 2 touches 2ndskiesforex

The more buyers/sellers you have at that level, the greater the chance the breakout trade will succeed.

Why?

One reason is those same players who, when they get stopped out after their support or resistance level is broken, them getting stopped out clears out some of the order flow against that breakout, thus making it easier for the breakout to continue.

On top of this, smart money players after they’ve been taken out (and spot a good breakout) will often flip sides after they get stopped out, thus providing further momentum to your breakout trade.

Hence it’s important to identify a level that has a minimum of two touches (the more, then better) to increase your probability of a breakout setup forming.

Breakout Pattern #2 – A reduction in the reactions (or pullbacks from that support/resistance level)

Why does a reduction in the pullback from a key support or resistance level help your breakout trades?

Let’s say the market is in a bull trend and it’s encountering a resistance level where there are likely bears with offers up at that level. If the bulls hit the resistance level the first time, and the market pulls back say 50 pips, then when the 2nd time the price action hits that resistance level, the market only pulls back say 25 pips, this indicates a weaker reaction by the bears at the level.

A weaker pullback from the bears = less order flow and strength on their side. As their side continues to weaken, this a) gives the bulls more confidence a breakout is becoming more likely, and b) communicates their side is losing the battle.

Looking at our prior chart, notice how the reactions/pullbacks to the resistance level were weaker the 2nd time around?

trading forex breakouts two touches 2ndskiesforex

Those weaker reactions were communicating how the bears were less able to push back while the bulls kept their foot on the gas, producing an eventual breakout.

Below is another good example of the two touches + weaker reactions to the resistance level on the USDJPY, producing a +125 pip breakout.

forex breakout setups 2ndskiesforex

Hence, make sure to look for weaker reactions each time off a key support or resistance level to identify a high probability breakout.

Key Tip: One additional pattern you can apply in the price action is to look for breakout setups that are forming with trend vs counter trend.

Now that I’ve shown you two underlying components of a breakout strategy, let’s talk about how you can get in on a breakout pullback setup.

The Breakout Pullback Setup

Assuming you’ve found a situation whereby you have the minimum two touches off a key support or resistance level, along with weaker reactions to the level each time, let’s talk about how you can get into a breakout pullback setup and how I trade it.

Once the market and price action has closed above your key support or resistance level, I’ll place a limit order on that particular support or resistance level to trade in the direction of the breakout.

NOTE: I am not waiting for a confirmation price action signal to form on that level. If you’ve read the price action context correctly, and found a legitimate breakout, any confirmation price action signal will only give you a weaker entry, and thus reduce your profitability.

If you learn to read the price action correctly, you won’t need any confirmation price action signal to get in the market, because the underlying order flow from the big players will already be there.

When I’m trading a breakout pullback setup, once I’ve qualified the breakout, I’m placing my order to get long/short on a pullback to the level.

If the order flow at that level is legit, there will be larger players willing to get long/short at that level without the need for any pin bar, inside bar or ridiculous tailed bar.

Case in point, watch this video on me doing a live breakout pullback trade on the NZDUSD for +100 pips of profit with only a 29 pip stop loss.

Notice how there were two touches on the support level near 6625, along with each bounce getting weaker. Once the market broke through the level, I placed my order to get short.

After pulling back to my level, and barely going negative, the pair took off for over +100 pips of profit.

Had you waited for any confirmation price action pin bar signal, you would have a) gotten a worse entry, and b) had less profit potential.

You can see another example of a live trade using a pyramiding trading strategy where I get in on the breakout pullback setup to the level on both trades, stacking onto the same with trend move for extra profit.

After watching the two videos, hopefully these examples give you a good idea of how to trade the breakout pullback setup.

How to Avoid False Breaks?

There is a lot that can be said about avoiding false breaks when trading the breakout pullback setup, and there are many breakout patterns that often fail.

false breakout patterns

To keep it simple, the best thing you can do is:

a) learn to read price action context, and

b) trade with trend as much as possible

By learning to read price action context, you’ll have a better grasp at finding key support and resistance levels where there is a lot of order flow around that level. You’ll also be better able to spot with trend environments, which are much more favorable for breakout trade setups. This is because there is a greater amount of order flow in your favor to support your trade.

In Summary

To recap, trading forex breakout patterns can be a highly profitable trading strategy when you learn to identify A+ breakout setups. There are two classifications of breakouts, which are a) the momentum breakout setup, and b) the breakout pullback setup.

There are also key breakout patterns you can spot in the price action which will help you find higher probability breakout trades.

In the beginning, try to trade breakout pullback setups as they require less skills, and will help you build your confidence in trading breakouts over time.

Lastly, when trading the breakout pullback setup, make sure NOT to wait for confirmation price action signals as they’ll give you a worse entry (trade location) and reduce your profitability.

Now Your Turn

What did you learn from this article that helped you with trading breakouts in the forex market (or any market for that matter)?

Did you find this useful and give you some increased confidence to trade breakouts?

Are you currently trading breakouts and struggling?

Please make sure to leave your feedback and comments to help us create better trading articles and content for you.

Until then, may good trading setups and karma be with you.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

What’s inside today’s trading article?

  • How to find the strongest support and resistance levels
  • What variables should I be looking for when picking my key support and resistance levels
  • How do I know how strong a major support and resistance level is?

Being able to find high probability key support and resistance levels is an important skill you’ll need to build to become a profitable trader. There is no way around this. If you’re wanting to trade price action, you’ll have to learn how to identify and trade key support and resistance levels.

One of the more common questions I get from struggling traders is “how do I find the strongest support and resistance levels?”

In this week’s trading article, we’ll answer this question, along with what variables you need to look for in finding key support and resistance levels, and how to identify the overall strength of that level.

Let’s jump in…

The Mindset Around Key Support & Resistance Levels

First off, it’s important to understand you need a particular mindset and understanding about support and resistance levels. What I’m particularly referring to here is that you have to view S/R levels ‘probabilistically‘. You cannot think of them as black or white, good or bad, going to hold, or not going to hold.

Trading doesn’t work like that, nor does price action, nor does S/R levels. You have to trade and think in probabilities. There is no way around this!

Just want to get this out of the way.

Also, it’s important to think of S/R levels more as ‘zones‘ and not fixed lines in the sand. This means you realize there isn’t one price where the support or resistance is broken. So you cannot think of it like “if the EURUSD breaks 1.1350, I’m bullish, but if it’s at 1.1349, I can’t be bullish“.

Order flow doesn’t work like this, nor are all large institutional players and hedge funds parking their buy/sell orders at the same price. They will often ‘cluster‘ their orders around specific prices. And it is this small cluster (or range of prices) which constitutes the ‘zone‘.

So avoid the trap of relating to support and resistance as a single price or line in the sand. Think of them as ‘zones‘ of important order flow.

How To Find The Strongest Support And Resistance Levels (in all financial markets)

The strongest support or resistance levels will more often than not be with trend. What this means is, if we are in a bull trend, pullback levels to support will more often than not be ‘stronger‘ than resistance levels above. This is because the underlying order flow in a bull trend is more dominantly on the buy side. Holding multiple tests of a with trend level usually is a good indicator of it’s level of strength.

Until the trend changes, hedge funds and large institutional players will be looking to buy more than sell, so the order flow on those pullback levels will often be ‘stronger‘ than resistance levels, which will often fold faster.

Below are a couple examples.

strong-support-levels-in-forex-holding-multiple-tests-2ndskiesforex

In this chart on the USDMXN (daily chart), notice how the resistance levels only survive a few touches before breaking, while the key support levels survive multiple touches before creating a new leg higher? This should tell you where the dominant order flow is (on the bull side) and that until you see this structure and order flow changing, you want to be trading with trend as much as possible.

NOTE: If you want to see a good example of me trading with the trend using key support and resistance levels, click on that link to watch a video of me profiting +300 pips trading S/R levels.

Another example of how a with trend support level held multiple touches is in the USDJPY (daily chart).

strongest-support-levels-in-forex-2ndskiesforex

Notice how the support levels held multiple touches in the middle. The ability to withstand multiple touches tells you the more dominant order flow is on the bull side as they’re able to handle multiple tests while holding the line.

Also notice how the last support level (~105.38) was just barely touched before producing a super strong bull move? Quick reactions that take out prior swing highs often denote impulsiveness and a strong amount of order flow present to hold the level for 1-2 candles before rocketing higher 1500 pips. So make sure to note these variables as demonstrating strength in a particular level:

  1. holding the line after multiple touches
  2. strong/short reactions from a key S/R level
  3. with trend levels will often be stronger than counter-trend levels

Now that you have a few variables to look for, make sure you build your skills in identifying these variables till they become sub-conscious.

What Other Variables Should I Be Looking For When Picking My Key Support And Resistance Levels?

Besides looking for with trend levels, another good variable to look for are corrective structures with multiple touches on both sides of the market.

A really good example of this lately has been the AUDJPY which we’ve talked about in our market commentary recently.

corrective-structures-offering-good-support-and-resistance-levels-audjpy-2ndskiesforex

Looking at the 4hr chart, you can see in the box how the price action has had multiple touches on the top and bottom of this corrective structure. What this communicates from an order flow perspective is that both sides of the market are in a state of balance, so neither side is dominant and ready to take over yet.

When you have corrective structures like this, it’s important to be trading both sides of the market until the structure breaks. This will give you a lot of trading opportunities with small stop losses (i.e. above/below the structure) while targeting the other side of the corrective structure.

In most cases, this structure would have offered several +3-4R trade setups. It is something we talked about with our members ahead of time, so congratulations to those students who profited from these trades.

NOTE: You can watch a live trade video of me profiting +160 pips trading off a key support level here.

Moving forward, you can see another example of these corrective structures on the ASX 200 1hr chart.

day-trading-setups-asx-200-2ndskiesforex

Although the levels are not as ‘clean‘ as the AUDJPY chart, the overall corrective structure is there and with a little more buffer, has offered multiple day trading setups for about +2R.

Hence learn to identify corrective structures with multiple touches on both sides of the market and look to trade both sides until the structure is broken.

In Summary

There are many tools and variables you’ll need to identify in the price action which can help you find strong support and resistance levels. Keep in mind, this is a skill that takes time to learn, so don’t expect to read an article and be a pro. You’ll have to build your skills in this over time. If you do this right, you’ll find yourself identifying and trading stronger support and resistance levels.

In our Trading Masterclass course we cover many other variables you’ll need to learn to find the best support and resistance levels. On top of the many lessons we have on S/R levels, we also have market commentary and trade ideas for our members 4x per week where we are identifying the most important support and resistance levels, so you can continually improve your skills.

To learn more about becoming a member and getting access to these lessons + market commentary, click here.

Until then, I hope you enjoyed this article on finding the strongest support/resistance levels, and make sure to leave a comment below.

Additional Articles/Videos To Study:
1) Live Forex Trading +480 Pips on EURUSD
2) Confirmation Around Key Support & Resistance Levels
3) Live Price Action Trade – Pullback To Support Level For +7R

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