Stock Market Analysis – 2nd Skies Trading

10 Predictions for 2025 (You Will Not Believe What Is Going to Happen)

With a new year underway, traders, investors and portfolio managers will make some bold new bets on what will happen in the upcoming year. If you get things right (and early), you can make a lot of money.

We feel 2025 will be an incredibly unique year for markets, and when all is said and done, it will seem a lot like 2020. We made a lot of predictions in 2020 early on when COVID was starting, many of which came true (airlines would suffer, sports betting will increase, etc) and we have some bold predictions for this year.

Below are 10 predictions for 2025 and how you can trade them.

NOTE: while the first three are free, the rest will be made available for TTM members only. If just a few of our predictions are right, they can pay for the course itself.

If you’d like to see the remaining 7 predictions (plus our BONUS prediction) for the year, you can become a TTM member here and get 15% OFF the current price (use the coupon code: NEWYOU15).

Prediction #1

There will be a change in the world order after this quarter in 2025

This is more of a geopolitical prediction and thus will be my ‘longest’ prediction (e.g. word count) but all the ingredients for a change in the world order are bubbling to the surface. And such a change could implicate any (*or many) of the following countries (in no particular order):

The United States
China
Russia
India

US – We still have the largest military in the world, and the biggest technological innovations are happening here (AI), but the US could slip from its global dominance. If it does, I expect the USD to depreciate, possibly lose its reserve currency status, a reduced demand for US debt (which would increase yields on US treasuries) and create greater fiscal strain on an already debt-heavy US government. Real estate would likely take a downturn, and in the short term, if there was no clear replacement, I think we’d see more ‘regional’ economies emerge, an increase in military conflicts and higher commodity prices (energy and food).

China – facing an aging population, a shrinking workforce, an economic boom fueled by debt, and government interventions, China could face a heavy strain on its social welfare system, a reduction in domestic consumption, and a lowering of productivity.

In such a scenario, we see Vietnam, India and Mexico benefitting the most to take on the factory needs of the world. This would also lead to the Yuan devaluing and any economy which has heavy exports to China (Australia, Brazil, etc).

Russia – Western sanctions, an exhausting military conflict with Ukraine, and a lack of competitive markets outside of energy make Russia vulnerable to a weakening state in the world order. Besides the Ruble falling in value, we think Canada (another major supplier of energy) and a potential increase in demand for oil from the ME (Middle East) and the US could benefit, while agricultural producers (i.e. Brazil) might benefit.

India – We lean towards the influence of India only getting stronger in the world order over time. Half of the worlds population lives in the Asian region (India, China, etc) and India’s population is growing massively while bringing people out of economic poverty into levels 2, 3 and 4 in terms of economic growth and stability. They have a young and growing population, pro-business policies and massive infrastructure development that is just getting into gear.

India could be come the global IT services hub and already has large companies like Infosys, Wipro and TCS leading the way.

Cloud computing, cybersecurity and big data analytics could all flourish there. They are also making heavy investments into alternative energy and EV’s and they stand to benefit the most should China fall from their position in the world order. For taking advantage of the growth in India, we like INDA (India ETF), and are watching their fintech firms like Zerodha, Paytm and Bajaj Finance and possible pharma exposure via Sun Pharma and Biocon. Telecom giants are also on our watch like Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio

We don’t know which country will see its position change in the world order, but we think this will happen after the 1^st quarter this year.

Prediction #2

The First Half of 2025 Will Be More Volatile than the Second Half

A Trump presidency, possible ending to the RUS/UKR war, ME conflicts increasing or decreasing, with many more contenders and we see the first half of this year being way more volatile than the second half.

We think vol will remain elevated, along with yields, and when there’s volatility in yields, equities suffer. We think the first half of the year will be much harder to predict on a long term basis and thus will remain tactically ‘short-term’ focused. This means making bets no more than 6 weeks out and keeping most bets/trades within 0-6 weeks. Only until the clarity comes will we consider making more long term trades for the year. We like being long VIX on dips in the first half and selling rips in the second half. We also think the biggest events with the longest lasting implications will happen in the first half, so once this is laid bare, it will give greater clarity in terms of ‘forward guidance’ for the rest of the year. Thus be patient and tactical in the first half, while thinking longer term in the second half.

Prediction #3

One New War Will Begin While a Current Conflict/War Will End

Whether it’s the RUS/UKR war, the Israel/Palestine conflict, we think one of these wars will end. While this may seem like a reprieve, we also think a new war and conflict will break out this year. This could be China invading Taiwan, China vs India, the US vs some ME country, or some unseen conflict.

Either way, we think the war drums will not go away this year as its setup for more conflicts. When the new conflicts break out, look to see what trading/commodities are impacted the most, what ETF (from said country) is likely to take a hit, and what military stocks will benefit the most.

Once again, if you’d like to see the remaining 7 predictions (plus our BONUS prediction) for the year, you can become a TTM member here and get 15% OFF the current price (use the coupon code: NEWYOU15).

Stock Market Analysis

Can Lyft Stock Lift Itself Out Of Its Meltdown?

The ridesharing company’s stock is taking a major hit, and the headwinds might not dissipate soon. Why did Lyft, Inc. (Nasdaq: LYFT) stock take a 33% dip?

Source: Thought Catalog

What Happened?

Lyft stock dropped by 30% on Wednesday, after the company announced that its profitability may take a dent as it increases incentives to keep drivers.

So What?

Before the news release, things were going quite well for the stock. Its revenue had grown by $875.6 million in Q1 FY 21, a 44% YoY growth. The company recorded this level of growth as 31.9% more active drivers came on board.

Source: Lyft

However a surge in fuel costs, coupled with Omicron Covid 19 headwinds, have inevitably reduced the profits Lyft drivers recorded. As a result, the company has lost a lot of drivers who haven’t been able to keep up with the low returns.

In order to address the issue, Lyft increased incentives for drivers. This increase in spending, however, has caused Lyft to release a guidance of only $10 million to $20 million in EBITDA, at least $63 million less than what Wall Street estimated for it.

Technical Analysis

LYFT stock has only been public for 39 months, but it has never risen above its opening price. It rose to the $68 – $71.6 resistance level twice in that time but has now dipped to the lowest support level of $17.2 – $21.3 in its history.

To cap it off, we may not have seen the bottom of the dip – but not for reasons relating directly to Lyft. The stock market has looked less positive recently, with the Dow, Nasdaq100, and S&P500 dropping by a minimum of 10% since the beginning of April.

If the general stock market continues to fall, Lyft may be forced to follow suit until it reaches new lows. And unless you don’t mind getting in on stock before it bottoms out, now is not the best time to buy Lyft stock.

Stock Market Analysis

Can This Mammoth Gaming Stock Overcome Its Blizzard And Win Again?

Activision Blizzard has been in the news for positive and negative reasons recently. On the negative side, the company has been dragged into lawsuits for discrimination and harassment. On the positive side, news has came out about Microsoft’s interest in acquiring Activision Blizzard, and Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in the company to 9.5%.

Source: Alexander Cifuentes

But beyond the news and speculations, is Activision Blizzard, Inc. (Nasdaq: ATVI) stock a good stock to buy now?

Support and Resistance

The ATVI stock looks to be on a clear uptrend on the monthly chart. This trend took off in 2013 and never looked back, at least until last year. The stock hit its highest price level of close to $105 in February 2022 and has since pulled back to the trendline created by the multi-year uptrend.

Zooming into the weekly chart, we see some key areas at the $66.8 – $69.4 and $85.7 – $88.4 levels. ATVI is currently sandwiched between these two levels with the former being the support. And while the stock looks to be on its way to the support level, it still has to overcome an area of potential resilience at the $77 price level.

Signals and Forecast

ATVI stock is more or less floating between the $66.8 – $69.4 support level and the $85.7 – $88.4 resistance level. A reasonable buy opportunity could arise if the price makes it to the support level. And if the price rises and breaks out of the resistance level, another buy opportunity may appear.

However, there’s a chance that the stock falls back to the trend line from the monthly chart. If this happens, traders should be wary of buying the stock, as that may signify that the uptrend is ending.

Should You Buy Activision Blizzard Stock?

Do not buy Activision Blizzard stock yet. While there are positive signs on the stock, now is not the perfect time to get in on the stock based on the technical analysis from above.

However, Activision Blizzard stock makes a fairly reasonable buy for traders who care more about fundamentals than technicals.

Stock Market Analysis

Can A 15% Soaring Break Ubisoft Stock’s Downfall?

A strong bullish engulfing timeframe appeared on the UBI stock chart on the daily timeframe. This rise translated to a 15% rise in price from an opening price of €34.

Source: Error 420

This rise resulted from rumors of a takeover by buyout funds. While no official statement has been released, that didn’t stop the stock from soaring in response. Many investors believe this buyout is significant for Ubisoft Entertainment SA (EURONEXT: UBI), as the Assassins Creed maker has suffered dwindling popularity among gamers in recent years.

But are these rumors enough to drive the Ubisoft stock out of its relentless downtrend? And does this discount present a good buying opportunity for Ubisoft stock?

Let’s see what the chart holds for the stock.

Support And Resistance

Ubisoft stock has suffered from the bears lately. The stock has dropped by 56% since a peak in January 2021 and has not recovered since then.

During this meteoric fall, the price bulldozed through the €60.8 – €65 support level and is now getting to work on the €37.7 – €41.7 level. Moreso, that dip has kept UBI stock below a bearish trendline.

However, if the stock is going to rise, it may need to also break out of the resistance level at the €51.5 price.

Signals And Forecasts

That the stock is below the bearish trendline is not a good signal for the shareholders of UBI. The stock broke below its lowest level since 2017 this March, and the bears don’t seem to be done with the stock.

Unless the stock breaks out of the bearish trendline, there isn’t much to suggest a break to Ubisoft’s downfall.

Should You Buy Ubisoft Stock Now?

Do not buy Ubisoft stock yet. Despite its 15% rise in a single day, the stock still has too many factors going against it:

It is on a downtrend.
It looks to have fallen below the €37.7 – €41.7 support level.

We recommend you at least wait for a breakout of the bearish trendline before you consider buying Ubisoft stock.

Stock Market Analysis

Casa Stock Skyrockets By 80% After Multi-Year Deal With US Telecoms Mammoth

American telecom mammoth Verizon recently became the third-highest shareholder of a budding 5G-infrastructure-building company. This has led to an increase in interest in the shares of the budding company, reflected by an 80% rise in share price.

Source: Z z