Tag Archive for: gold

New to Forex? Then check out my FREE Learn Forex Trading Course with videos, quizzes and downloadable resources

Top Trade Review: Check out this Top Forex Trade Review with Itayi profiting +1100 Pips on the NZDJPY (AMAZING PROFIT!)

Want FREE Forex Charts? Check out our top charting provider Trading View.

Did you see my video “Is It Time To Buy Stocks” and whether you should be buying stocks long term?

Forex Trade Idea: AUDCHF – Corrective Structure At Dynamic Resistance (daily chart)

Price Action Context

After the V-bottom bounce mid-March, the AUDCHF forex pair has been inside a corrective structure for the last 6 days near the top of this V-bottom bounce and bear market rally.

Interestingly enough the pair has also been held by the dynamic resistance and 20 EMA touching it several times but being unable to close above it.

A weakening in this structure points to a potential attack on 5600 and maybe the recent lows.

However an impulsive break and close above points at a ST recovery.

audchf forex pair 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST bullish while inside the corrective structure with strength gaining on a close above and weakness on a close below.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 5957, 6221

S: 5642, 5400

Stay tuned with our members market commentary for updates.

******

Stock Trade Idea: Delta Air Lines ($DAL) – Watching For Potential Break to Sell (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

Selling off 6 of the last 7 weeks, Delta Air Lines ($DAL) was already under pressure, being held below the anchored vwap over the last 3 weeks, and is pressuring the yearly lows again after last weeks sell off.

But pouring gasoline onto a fire, reports that Warren Buffet has sold 12.9 million shares of Delta should only put more pressure onto the stock.

I’m watching for a break below the yearly lows, or a weak pullback into the anchored vwap for a potential trade setup to get short.

delta air lines stock trading 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST & MT bearish while below 36 on a weekly closing basis.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 30.75, 36

S: 19, 15

******

Commodity Trade Idea: Gold (XAUUSD) Showing Resilience In Bull Trend (1hr chart)

Price Action Context

Showing resilience in the bull trend, Gold started off the week selling off towards the 1450 key support level before correcting and then bouncing impulsively, making up the losses faster than it sold off.

This tells us the bulls still have the majority of control and are looking to break higher this week.

gold bull trend 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST & MT bullish while above 1450 on a weekly closing basis. Am looking to get long on a break above 1640.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 1640, 1690

S: 1567, 1450

******

New to Forex? Then check out my FREE Learn Forex Trading Course with videos, quizzes and downloadable resources

Top Trade Review: Check out this Top Forex Trade Review with Itayi profiting +1100 Pips on the NZDJPY (AMAZING PROFIT!)

Want FREE Forex Charts? Check out our top charting provider Trading View.

Did you read my ‘Is the Stock Market Going to Crash‘ article? If not, make sure to read it for trading tips.

Forex Trade Idea: EURUSD – Approaching Base Of Support & ATL (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

After a brutal V-shaped sell off from the two week rip up, the Euro has been punished dropping almost 8 handles in the last two weeks.

The forex pair is currently approaching a large base of support and the all time lows (ATL) between 1.0680 and 1.0348.

Right now there is a shortage of USD’s out there and thus a major reason why the USD is performing well now, so I’m expecting this support zone to be penetrated and tested.

If we break the ATL mid 1.03’s, then I’m expecting some technical stops to be tripped at 1.01 and a potential attack on parity so look for a weekly close below.

eurusd

Trending Analysis

ST bearish and MT neutral while above this zone.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 1.12, 1.1472

S: 1.068, 1.0345

Stay tuned to our members market commentary for updates.

******

Stock Trade Idea: Zoom Video Communications ($ZM) – Should Benefit Long Term (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

With a lot of companies having their employees work from home, video conferencing is set to benefit.

Now while many of these companies are seeing their stocks surge, I don’t think its going to evaporate when the corona-virus subsides and life goes back to normal.

I am thinking many companies will be realizing they can function just fine with large portions of their workforce working from home.

Hence I’m suspecting that even when life normalizes after this virus, more and more companies will be embracing video conferencing.

Enter Zoom (which we use) whose stock is up an impressive 68% since the beginning of Feb.

I think if we get a decent pullback in the stock, I’m looking to go long for a long term bet video conferencing will thrive in the coming years and Zoom will be a big beneficiary of that.

zoom stock

Trending Analysis

I’m watching the role reversal level around 104 as a potential buy point, ideally on a corrective pullback.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 135, 150

S: 104, 75.67

******

Commodity Trade Idea – Gold ($XAUUSD) – Likely Sold To Fund Losses, Potential Support (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

In the last two weeks, gold has been selling off aggressively.

A lot of traders have been associating gold with a risk off in this case, but if that was the case, why didn’t it start selling off earlier in the market crash?

I think gold has been sold recently as a ‘funding‘ trade to offset losses in other aspects of their portfolio.

Hence I think gold might be trying to bottom around 1450, and there may be a potential short term trade setup here.

gold                                              

Trending Analysis

ST bearish but MT bullish while above 1450 on a weekly closing basis.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 1550, 1675

S: 1450, 1350

******

Chris Capre’s current live open price action & ichimoku trades: USDMXN, EURRUB, EURMXN, BIG, DIS, AC, ISD

New to Forex? Then check out my FREE Learn Forex Trading Course with videos, quizzes and downloadable resources

Top Trade Review: Check out our latest Top Forex Trade Review with my student banking +428 Pips on the GBPAUD (MASSIVE PROFIT!)

Forex Trade Idea: EURUSD – Staying Long Till Momentum Change (4hr chart)

Price Action Context

A week ago on our youtube channel we commented on the momentum change in the EURUSD captured by the change in the price action and the 20 EMA.

This is what it means to understand dynamic support & resistance.

The EURUSD call was pretty prescient as the Euro staged an impressive reversal climbing another 200 pips from when we posted that.

Looking at the 4hr chart below, you’ll see how the 20 EMA Held on 4 separate pullbacks suggesting the market is now treating it as support, thus a bullish sign for now.

I’m looking to stay long while we’re above 1.10 and the 4hr 20 EMA on a closing basis.

eurusd dynamic support 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST bullish while above the 4hr 20 EMA and 1.10. Looking to stay long under these conditions towards 1.1175 resistance zone.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 1.1096, 1.1175

S: 1.10, 1.0775

Get EURUSD updates with our members market commentary 4x per week.

******

Commodity Trade Idea: GOLD (XAUUSD) ST Bearish But MT Bull Trend In Play (daily chart)

Price Action Context

While having an impressive bull run for 2020, Gold puked to end last week with billions being sold and wiping out most of the yearly gains within a matter of days.

My sense is there was a lot of profit taking in gold to subsidize losses from stock holdings (which also took a beating last week).

Regardless, ST gold isn’t my cup of tea, but I think the MT bull trend is still in place with two major support zones in play for potential longs.

gold role reversal leve 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST bearish but looking to get long at key role reversal levels.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 1660, 1770

S: 1550, 1450

******

Stock Trade Idea: Boeing (BA) – Collapses Below Large Corrective Structure, Bearish (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

For the last two years, Boeing has had a base of support between 292 and 318 which has supported the stock well and created a lot of good short to medium term trade setups.

However, last week Boeing got hammered closing below the 292 base of the large corrective structure for the first time ever.

NOTE: We called a bearish setup way back at 369 which profited massively for our stock trading members.

IMO, the break below this structure is a very bearish technical event with many MT and LT stops being tripped.

Also of importance is now there is a large air pocket with only thin layers of support for the company, and nothing major till 157, so this could turn really ugly fast for this stock.

boeing stock trade idea 2ndskies

Trending Analysis

ST I’m looking to get short and stay short till we get a close above 292 on a weekly basis. Downside there could be a lot of room to run if none of the minor levels hold along the way.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 292, 318

S: 242, 157

******

Chris Capre’s current live open price action and ichimoku trades: USDJPY, AUDCAD, SLV, AUS200

New to Forex? Then check out my FREE Learn Forex Trading Course with videos, quizzes and downloadable resources

What is happening in the forex market? Check out my latest video on how this unique volatility environment will affect your forex trading

EURUSD – Broken Below MT Support (Daily chart)

Price Action Context

After bulls got rejected around 1.14 in the end of June sellers re-took control and EURUSD has now broken below a key support zone and produced a new lower low MT, opening up for a likely continuation lower towards 1.09 if bears are able to stay in control.

EURUSD_Broken_Below_MT_Support

Trending Analysis

Bias is bearish and the current pullback into the broken support which now should act as resistance can be of potential interest to bears looking to short the pair.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 1.1100 – 1.1150

S: 1.0800 – 1.0900

Stay tuned to our members private trade setups channel for updates.

******

ASX – Testing Major Resistance & ATH (Monthly chart)

Price Action Context

Australia’s index is now testing the ATH resistance zone from the pre-financial crisis high back in 2007, something we highlighted as a possibility in our top trade ideas for 2019 video.

ASX_Testing_Major_Resistance__ATH

Trending Analysis

LT bias is bullish, but considering the significance of this ATH, at a minimum, a solid bearish ST rejection from this key resistance is very likely IMO, which can present potential shorting opportunities to bears. A LT break and close above 6880 would open up further upside for the index.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 6780 – 6880

S: 6330 – 6450

You can trade the ASX200 index via our preferred trading broker here.

******

XAUUSD – MT With-Trend Corrective Structure Above LT Key Support (4h chart)

Price Action Context

Mid-June, the precious metal successfully cleared the multi-year resistance we’ve mentioned in our recent member market commentaries, opening up further upside. Since, price has produced a MT with-trend corrective structure which for now seems to be holding.

XAUUSD_MT_Corrective_Structure_Above_LT_Key_Support

Trending Analysis

LT bias is bullish and bulls can look for potential trading locations on pullbacks towards the CS bottom and LT key support.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 1 437 – 1 453

S: 1 360 – 1 392 (LT Support)

You can trade spot gold via our preferred trading broker here.

Chris Capre’s live open price action and ichimoku trades: GBPUSD, NZDJPY, USDJPY, USDNOK, CAC40, VIX

New to Forex? Then check out my FREE Learn Forex Trading Course with videos, quizzes and downloadable resources

How Much Should You Risk Per Trade? Watch our latest video How Much Should You Risk Per Trade {3 Rules}

GBPJPY – Testing Multi-Year Support (Weekly chart)

Price Action Context

After breaking below 140.00, the strong selling continued and the pair is now testing a multi-year support zone at which I think at least a solid ST bounce is likely considering the significance of this support zone.

forex-gbpjpy-key-support-2ndskies

Trending Analysis

If bulls are able to successfully defend this key support, a move back up towards 140 is likely IMO and should 140 fail to stop price, 148 would be the next key resistance to look out for. A failure of this support on the other hand would open up a solid amount of downside with 130 being the first support in line to look out for.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 138.60 – 140.00
S: 135.50 – 137.50

 

******

XAUEUR – Broken Above Key Resistance, Potential False Break (Daily chart)

Price Action Context

After a brief rejection at the KSP from February, the precious metal found support at 1 170 and impulsively broke above 1 190, producing a solid bullish close above the resistance.

gold-vs-euro-bullish-trend-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

LT bias is bullish and weak pullbacks towards the broken resistance can present potential buying opportunities. A break and close back below 1 180 would render this a CT FB and initially open up for a move back down to 1 135.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 1 215 – 1 225
S: 1 180 – 1 190

******

DAX – Holding Above ST RRL (1h chart)

Price Action Context

After putting in a WT false break at 11 850, which we talked about in our commentary on the 8th of June, price continued trading higher and is currently holding above a ST RRL.

dax-trade-signal-2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

LT bullish bias and bulls can look for possible buying opportunities around the ST support level. A break below this ST support would open up for a move lower back into 11 850 which in turn also could present potential buying opportunities IMO.

Key Support & Resistance Zones

R: 12 173 – 12 225
S: 12 045 – 12 080

The learning process never ends for a trader.   The market is always evolving and you have to adapt. Algorithmic trading was about 3% of the FX market in 04′.  Now 28% of it is just HFT’s alone! Think that has changed the intraday price action?  Absolutely!
Thus, you must always be learning, evolving and challenging yourself.  There are always refinements and greater depths to what you are doing, whether you are trading price action, ichimoku or other rule based systems.
Regardless of your skill level in trading, you are going to make mistakes.  I make mistakes, but I learn from them with alacrity.  I quickly analyze what I did wrong, visualize what I would do differently, clear my mindset and get back to business.   The difference between a professional & beginning trader is usually two-fold;
1) they make less of the typical mistakes beginners do
and
2) they rebound much faster, control the damage quicker and get back to business
Analyze your last year of trading in your journal.  I’m willing to bet if you eliminated just one or two mistakes you continually repeat, your current losing year would have been a profitable one.  If you ended the year break-even, then it likely would have been highly profitable.
Eliminating mistakes is one of the fastest ways to profitability. The sooner you discover, eliminate and transform them, the faster your equity curve will climb.
Thus, in the spirit of this, I will share my top trading mistakes for 2012 in the hopes you can learn from them.
1) Trading and Investing are Two Different Things
I am a trader first and foremost, but I also am invested long term in physical gold.
To ‘invest’ in physical gold, you constantly have to understand what is happening in the physical AND paper market.  It helps to study central bank buying of gold, physical supply, how it is used as a safe haven against bad governments, etc.
However, I also trade gold using intraday price action strategies, and sometimes my methods/opinions on one get mixed with another.  Long term I am a bull on gold, and have been since 2004/05 back at the $400 levels.
Many times in the last 3 months, I was long paper gold.  Yet intraday price action would be screaming for me to get short.  My broker allows hedging – so why wasn’t I shorting physical?  Because my long term investing bias was interfering with my short term trading methods.
One of my top trading mistakes for 2012 was forgetting that I am a trader first and foremost, and to not let my bullish bias or investing strategies interfere with an obvious price action setup.
A good example is I bought paper gold at $1633, which I blogged about as a high probability breakout.  At one point I was up 51x my risk, meaning for the 300 pips I was risking, I was up about 15200 pips.
By the time I walked away from the trade, I was only up 6500 pips. I didn’t follow exit rules because of my long term investment bias.
Remember, a trader and investor are two different things, and you must understand the difference.
2) Trading Against Impulsive Price Action
One of the base models I use for trading is understanding impulsive and corrective price action.
To sum it up briefly, impulsive price action moves are when the institutional market is heavily buying or selling and driving the price action directionally.  With training and practice, you can learn to read the order flow behind price action, particularly by identifying these impulsive price action moves.
A few times this year I traded completely against these moves.  Case in point – meet exhibit A, ironically on……wait for it……Gold!
Gold 4hr Charts
impulsive and corrective price action gold trade 4hr chart 2ndskiestrading.com
Looking at the chart above, you will notice on the bottom left points A and B which showed strong price action rejections.  Buyers stepped in at this level, driving prices almost $50 higher in about 6 days.
At C you will notice the pin bar at C which was the second sign the bullish move was ending.  Any idea what the first was?
Regardless, after the pin bar, price action failed to make a HH (higher high) and started with selling off impulsively at D, then more sellers came in at E, and by F, once it broke the role reversal level, price got monkey-hammered dropping $30 in 4 hours.
I had a buy order at the support level at G, so made some profit on the bounce, but missed the fact the market was still showing impulsive price action selling.
So at H what did I do?  I bought some again, hoping for a similar move.  The result is below, but you get the idea.
Gold 4hr Chart Exhibit B
impulsive price action breakout pullback setup gold 2ndskiestrading.com
At the support level where my first long worked out, I went long again at H and the same level.  Shortly after I was stopped out.
Instead of realizing I was trading against the trend and impulsive price action, I was looking for a reversal. I consequently missed the obvious breakout pullback setup at the same level I was looking to get long, which then became a role reversal level.  This is what happens when you trade against the trend and your system.
Not only do you miss several good with trend setups, but after you get stopped out, you usually miss the follow up trade from your price action system to take advantage of the move.
3) Let Your Trade Run Until Your System Tells You To Exit
Barring any extreme or black swan event, I usually just let my trade run until my rule based system tells me to exit.
However on a recent buy on the GBPJPY, after getting a great entry and banking about +300 pips, I exited the trade, even though my system was still telling me to hold long and hadn’t given an exit signal.
Looking at the chart below, you can see on the top left at B a critical resistance level which started the massive 300 pip sell off.
ichimoku strategy chris capre 2ndskiesforex gbpjpy + 300 pips
Price started to show signs of exhaustion, and started a reversal.  My ichimoku strategy picked up a buy order just above 126.60.  Shortly after, price climbed rapidly gunning it for the same resistance level at 129.50.  After the weekend gap rejected, I took profit banking about +300 pips.
Not so bad you say…until you look at the chart below.
ichimoku trading strategies chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com gbpjpy
Not only did my system hold on for another + 300 pips, but it gave me a re-buy signal around 132 and is still currently long today.  I missed that one as well from being ‘upset’ about exiting early.  Needless to say this would have over tripled my profits. Even though my system never gave me an exit, I got out of the position.
Not letting runners run is one of the most costly mistakes a trader can make.  Yes, it is important to understand what is a high quality signal, but I’m guessing if you let just 10 of your trades run until the system gave you an exit, you would have made almost double your profits on those 10 trades.  For me, it was actually 2.4x more.  Food for thought.
In Closing
Part of trading is making mistakes, but a key component of your success is learning from your mistakes and making less of them over time.  Regardless of your skill level or how long you have been trading, you will make mistakes.  Anyone who only posts their successes and doesn’t admit to their failures is hiding behind a wall of fear and a false reality.
I make mistakes and I’ve been doing this for 12 years.  But I learn from them continually and make less of them as time goes on.  This translates into more profits, smaller drawdowns, less emotions, and a smoother equity curve.
Eliminating mistakes is the fastest path to making more profits.  But the first step is becoming aware of them.  This is where the trading journal comes in handy.  If you’ve made 300 trades last year, are you really going to remember every mistake you ever made?  Unlikely, this is why you have a journal, to help you become aware of your mistakes.
The second step is to actively work on eliminating and transforming them.  If you repeat a mistake over and over again, then the cause is likely psychologically, and something that can be re-wired through ERT training and developing a successful trader mindset.
But the bottom line is you can transform your mistakes into strengths, and most definitely into greater profits.  In almost all cases, making less mistakes can be the difference between a winning and losing day, month or year.  And in almost all cases – will lead to significantly greater profits.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre