Tag Archive for: risk management

What’s Inside?

  • The 4 stages to becoming a millionaire trader
  • What is the most important stage to making money trading?
  • What trading and mindset skills you need to become a profitable trader?

Since February of 2018, I’ve been envisioning how I want to build a complete trader training program that will teach you the stages, skills and mindset you’ll need to build to become a highly profitable trader who can pull a million dollars out of the market. I actually started working on this article over 6 months ago, and it has finally come to fruition.

If there was only one trading article you could read on my site, this would be it, so grab the popcorn as it’s a heavy hitter.

The goal of this article is to teach you about the 4 stages to becoming a millionaire trader. It’s designed to be a roadmap and structure for how to get from where you are now (likely struggling) to becoming a professional trader who can make a million dollars trading the markets.

millionaire-trader 2ndskiesforex

Before I get into the stages and roadmap, I have to explain a fundamental component and basis for this article.

Buddhism And Trading?

For the last 18 years, I’ve been training in Tibetan Buddhism, particularly in the Nyingma tradition. One of the amazing components of training in Buddhism is the ‘structure‘ and ‘stages‘ they clearly lay out for you. And a fundamental aspect of Buddhist practice has to do with the following formula:

Base, Path & Fruit

To explain this simply, the ‘base‘ is the starting point and foundation you build everything else upon.

It’s a fundamental level of direct experience and understanding you need to have to complete a specific aspect of your training. It’s arriving at the base which is what makes any practice, training or method work. Without this, you’re just wasting your time.

Keep in mind, it is not something you can arrive at ‘conceptually‘. What I mean by this is, it’s not something you can just read in a book and understand. You have to have the actual direct experience before you can progress any further.

Think of it like this:

Who would you trust more? Someone who’s lived in Buenos Aires (Argentina) their whole life, and knows the city, streets, traffic patterns, restaurants, various barrios, how ‘corruption’ affects their daily business, local customs, etc? Or someone who’s spent the last several years ‘reading‘ about Buenos Aires, looking things up on google, and watched youtube videos about it?

I’m guessing every time you’ll take the former hands down, which you’ll notice has nothing to do with ‘intelligence’. The person who’s lived in the city has a ‘direct experiential‘ knowledge about Buenos Aires that cannot be read in a book, watched in a video, or learned ‘conceptually’. It has to be a direct experience!

The same goes for the ‘base’ in trading. If it’s not a direct experience, you simply cannot progress any further. This is what I mean by ‘base’.

The ‘Path‘ is the practice, methods and training you use to get you to the direct experience. It needs to be a specific path which takes you from point A to B.

The path needs to be very specific and clearly demonstrated to produce real results.

The ‘Fruit‘ is what you get when you fully complete the ‘path‘ by using those practices, methods and trainings. It’s the ‘result‘ of what you get when you do the work, and it also should be specific.

If you have the base in place, then you can begin the journey. If not, you’ll need to arrive at the base (just like you have to arrive at ‘base camp’ to climb Mount Everest), before you can proceed any further. There is absolutely no way to skip steps here.

This entire training and article is built upon these principles of Base, Path and Fruit. Simply put, if you follow the structure I’m laying out here for you, your progression will naturally follow and you’ll see the results in your trading performance, mental execution and mindset.

Each of the 4 stages to becoming a professional trader has it’s own ‘Base, Path and Fruit’. Before you can progress to the 2nd stage, you’ll have to complete the first. There is no way around this! So if your goal is to make a million dollars trading, you’ll want to go straight for the first stage.

Becoming A Millionaire Trader (Stage 1)

The very first stage to becoming a millionaire trader is what I call the ‘Stage of Discipline‘.

The ‘base’ of this stage is having the direct experience and realization that:

a) your brain is currently not wired to trade successfully
b) you’ve had the experience of how your mind, emotions, and skill-set are currently not sufficient to consistently make money
c) have a real passion for trading, and
d) a mindset focused on growth

If you have those 4 things in place, you have the sufficient ‘base’ to begin the first stage.

By now, you’ve probably witnessed how your emotions affect your trading decisions (FOMO, not pulling the trigger, fear of losing money, risking too much/too little, etc). You’ve probably also noticed how you’re not consistently disciplined in your approach (system hopping, changing instruments, not sticking to your trading plan, etc).

Sound familiar?

If you’ve realized what you’re doing isn’t working, and that you’re lacking certain skills + training, but still have a passion to make money trading + are focused on growth, then congratulations – you’ve arrived at the base of the first stage. You’ve accepted the fact you (by yourself) cannot make this work, that you need a trading mentor + build new habits to succeed.

If you’re here, then you’re ready to actually begin the first stage, which is the stage of discipline.

The only thing you need to pack in your bags from here on out is a commitment to getting past this first stage. You don’t need to have the commitment to become a billionaire trader. Just having the commitment and openness to train is the minimal requirements to begin the first stage. Consider this stage to be your ‘apprenticeship‘ in becoming a successful trader.

The ‘fruit’ of the 1st stage of discipline is ‘consistency‘. If you don’t have consistency, you’ll never a) succeed in trading, and b) make it to the 2nd stage.

I say ‘consistency‘ is the ‘fruit’ of this stage, because it’s what you get when you have a solid level of discipline in place. Without this, there is no progression in trading, and you’ll continue to make the same mistakes over and over and over again.

Does this sound like your current experience?

Thus, discipline is what helps you exit out of that cycle (repeating the same mistakes). It’s the force which allows you to break through your current bad habits around trading. It’s what allows you to execute the same things over and over again, regardless of the emotions you feel, or obstacles you come against.

Consider discipline a type of ‘armor‘ against that which will knock you off your horse and derail your progress. Essentially, it protects you against yourself, and is absolutely necessary in trading..

From my experience, both in Buddhism, and in trading, it actually has to get worse before you give up your current approach (which likely isn’t working). You actually have to suffer to the point you realize “I no longer want to suffer like this. I’m open to trying it differently.” This realization creates the first real opening for you to get out of that vicious cycle of repeating the same mistakes over and over again.

The ‘path‘ of the stage of discipline is the most intricate and nuanced part of your trading progression. It’s the hardest part of the mountain to climb, and requires the most effort on your part. This is because you’re going to be fighting against much of what you currently are, which by definition, is insufficient to consistently make money trading. If you were already there, you’d be doing it.

The ‘path’ has to consist of a series of methods and skills (trading and mindset wise) you’ll need to build to get to the ‘fruit’.

Practices & Methods For the Stage of Discipline

As stated before, the goal or fruit of the stage of discipline is consistency. This means consistency in your execution, decision making process, trading strategies you are using, what instruments you trade, risk management, etc.

Consistency, however, has a ‘root cause‘, meaning the root of what it grows out of. As I’ve stated before, consistency can only come from the mind. If you do not have consistent thoughts, thinking patterns, neurological structures, mindset, (etc) there will be no consistency in your trading. Hence your focus for building ‘consistency’ has to primarily consist of (and begin with) your mind.

If you are currently not experiencing any sort of consistency in your trading, then congratulations, you’ve discovered the root cause of your inconsistency (your mind). Now your initial goal in trading and becoming consistent may seem counter-intuitive, but I’m guessing you’ll find it makes sense when you fully understand it.

Your initial goal in trading should be to become a ‘consistentlylosing trader. Now many of you are likely thinking “I consistently lose now, why would I want this?” While that may be true in ‘form’, it’s not true in ‘essence’. What I mean by this is, while you may be consistently losing money, there are likely many components of your performance which are not ‘consistent’.

Some of these components can be:

  1. Risk Management – are you consistently risking the same % per trade? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’.
  2. Trading Instruments – are you consistently trading the same instruments till you have a sufficient baseline to make a quantifiable decision? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  3. Times of the day – are you consistently trading the same times of the day? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  4. Pre-trade preparation – are you consistently preparing mentally for your trading day with the same routine? If not, you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  5. Pre-trade analysis – do you have the same consistent routines and methods (price action, ichimoku cloud trading, etc) for finding trading setups? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  6. Post-trade analysis – do you have the same consistent routines and methods for analyzing your completed trades? If not, you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  7. Reinforcing successful trading habits – do you have the same consistent routines and methods for reinforcing successful trading habits? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’
  8. Trading plan – do you have a detailed trading plan which has clear instructions for how to trade, how to train, and how to progress in your trading? If not, then you’re not ‘losing consistently’

I could go on as there are many other variables you’ll need to ‘lose consistently’, but my guess is, when you read the above and really take it all in, you’ll realize that you’ve been ‘losing money’ consistently, but not ‘losing consistently’. There a difference.

It takes discipline and a courage to say “I’m going to focus on consistently losing”, just like it takes discipline and commitment to not hit the target consistently in archery. But that is your initial goal in archery (not just hitting the target), but ‘consistency’ in your technique, process and movements. If there is no consistency in your stance, alignment, breathing, holding of the riser (main bow structure), how you grip the bow string, how far you pull it back, etc…there will be no consistency in where your arrows land.

(Image: Brady Ellison – #1 US Archer – Recurve Bow)

Trading is no different!

Hence in sounding somewhat masochistic, your initial goal in the first stage of discipline is to learn to ‘lose consistently’. By doing this, you’re building the foundation which the entire house you want to build will rest upon. Then you can focus on being a consistently break-even trader. Then you can focus on being a consistently profitable trader.

But before all this, you’ll need to focus on building the prerequisite trading skills, which can be defined as the following:

1) Trading Methodology & Approach

There are only 4 major trading methodologies, or approaches to the markets. They can be any of the following; 1) technical, 2) fundamental, 3) sentiment, 4) flow based.

Now any one of these can fall into broad categories, such as (discretionary, rule-based, hybrid, quantitative).

The approach I teach is a ‘technical‘ model based upon understanding price action context and the order flow behind it. I teach this method because it can be applied to any instrument, time frame or environment, and is based upon what all trading decisions are based upon (*information).

Regardless of whether you are a technical, fundamental, sentiment or flow based trader, all trading decisions are derived from ‘information’. Eventually that information has to be converted into an actual trade (and thus order). All ‘activated’ orders become ‘actualized’ order flow. And order flow is the most proximate driver of price action.

This is why I teach price action context and the order flow behind it, because I’m teaching you a ‘root’ method which communicates the footprint of all orders and trading decisions. By understanding these, you can give yourself the highest probability for trading with the dominant order flow in the market, which is what drives all price action. By doing this, you can learn to trade with the larger players who will most likely dominate directional price movements (which is what we want to capitalize on).

price-action-2ndskiesforex

Price Action Trading Skills

There are many price action trading skills you’ll need to build, and it is important not to learn these skills out of order. I often find traders trying to learn more advanced skills before they’ve built a solid set of foundational skills. One common example is struggling traders trying to trade counter trend before they’ve learned to trade with trend (with the latter being easier).

Now assuming you understand what candlestick charts are, time frames, and what the basics of price action are, then you’ll need to build your core skills of price action. In price action trading, the first set of ‘core’ skills you’ll need to learn is what I call the 3 pillars of price action context.

I’ve talked about the first pillar of price action context, which is being able to identify impulsive and corrective moves. The reason why this is the base pillar is it gives you the most amount (and most nuanced) information about the price action and order flow happening right now.

It tells you who’s in control of the market (buyers/sellers), and who’s not. It tells you how to read momentum in the price action without any indicators. It tells you when are optimal times to take profit, and not take profit. It tells you when you’ll need to be patient, and when you need to make a quick decision. It tells you when trading breakouts are more likely (or more probable) to occur, and when they are less likely to succeed.

impulsive-and-corrective-price-action 2ndskiesforex

There is a lot more impulsive and corrective moves can tell you about price action, but by learning these, you start to learn how to think like a price action trader, and see the dominant order flow behind it. This is why it’s the first pillar. If you want to learn about the other two pillars of price action context and the order flow behind it, then check out my price action course where we talk about this extensively.

Now before you can even practice these skills and making actual trading decisions, you’ll need to first be able to identify (with 90+% accuracy) these 3 pillars of price action context. My formula for how to build your trading skills (and price action skills) is simple:

Sim, then Demo, then Live

What this means is, after you’ve watched videos and understood (conceptually) the components of an impulsive and corrective move, you’ll want to start building your pattern recognition skills in the charts. You build these pattern recognition skills so you can identify them automatically, and thus, sub-consciously.

If you’ve ever looked at a chart and had the thoughts, “Is this a such and such pattern? I’m not sure, how do I know? I know it said it has to have x, y and z, but is this part the same, or is it different…

Have you had this experience before? If so, then your skills are not ‘sub-conscious‘. The reason why this is important is you want to use your cognitive thinking, analysis and bandwidth for finding profitable trade setups. If you have all those thoughts going through your mind, then congratulations – you’ve now realized your skills are not sub-conscious, so that should be your next goal.

By starting with a trading simulator, you can have the opportunity to watch the price action unfold, pause it, take time to read it correctly, then resume the historical price action on the chart unfold.

trading simulator 2ndskiesforex

This is why sim is the best place to start, because on demo, the charts just keep moving on whether you got the analysis correct or not. Just like pilots start off in a flight simulator to make sure they have the basic functional skills to fly a plane, you also need to start off on a simulator.

By looking over thousands of candles and charts in a short period of time via a trading simulator, you can increase your learning curve, and accelerate your pattern recognition skills, particularly being able to identify impulsive and corrective price action.

Once you’ve seen enough impulsive and corrective moves, your brain will eventually assimilate these patterns into its database, and be able to identify them on any instrument, time frame or environment with ease (and without doubt).

After you’ve mastered all 3 pillars individually, the next step is to assimilate them together into one cohesive picture (or gestalt). The goal here is to be able to easily identify all three of the pillars of price action context, then be able to come up with a ‘most probable’ direction of the market.

I say ‘most probable’ because this is a mindset you’ll need to develop to make it out of the first stage of trading. Beginners try to use ‘confirmation price action signals‘ because they think they ‘confirm’ the trade and direction. But 1, 2 or 3 candles is a small amount of price action + order flow, and rarely ever dictates the next move (~1% of the time).

Hence you have to shift your mindset from ‘confirming‘ (because there is no certainty in the market) to ‘probabilities‘, because probabilities is all you are ever dealing with. There is no certainty, and never will be when it comes to price action and the next direction. This is why I say confirmation price action signals will crush your account. If these so called ‘confirmation price action signals’ actually ‘confirmed’ anything, there would be ample statistics and data to back that up. Yet nobody to date has been able to provide this (which should tell you everything you need to know about them).

Now while you’re building your core price action trading skills, you’ll also need to build your mindset skills. To succeed in trading, you’ll need a successful mindset which will keep you on track when things are challenging, and help you execute what you need to when your trades and emotions are really affecting your thoughts and trading decisions.

Mindset Skills to Build Consistency In Your Mind

If you’re working towards consistency in your mind, there are several core mind/mindset skills you’ll need to build. For the purposes of brevity and not turning this into a long novel, we’ll talk about the 3 most important mindset skills you’ll need to build consistency in your mind and make money trading.

The first mindset skill you’ll want to build is understanding how the brain works. By understanding how your brain and mind work, you can accelerate your learning process by working with how your brain functions, not against it.

One of the most fundamental aspects of the brain is its ability to re-wire itself. This principle is called neuroplasticity. 

Neuroplasticity can be summed up by the following phrase:

“Neurons that fire together, wire together”

Neurons are the basic neural cells you have in your brain. They connect to each other through axons and dendrites. By connecting to each other, they can pass information via electrical signals.

If you want to wire in a new trading habit, you’ll have to activate neural circuits which do this over and over again. By doing this over and over again, they strengthen those connections till they become ‘dominantly wired‘. Another term for ‘dominantly wired’ is ‘habit‘. Anything you have dominantly wired in your brain is a habit. So by firing the same neurons together, they wire together and form specific habits you’ll want and need to build a successful mindset.

This is where understanding how the brain works helps.

There are 7 components to neuroplasticity, but there is one fundamental ‘root‘ component behind all neurological wiring: Repetition.

By repeating the same thing (and thinking pattern) over and over again, you can wire in the trading habits you’re looking for.

It’s why basketball players will shoot free throws every day in practice. It’s why quarterbacks (American football) will practice throwing the football over and over again, so that their mechanics are automatic and sub-conscious. It’s why Bruce Lee said “I fear the man who practices one kick 10,000 times“, because such a person has that has practiced a kick 10,000x likely can throw it with speed, precision and power.

Repetition is the most fundamental building block to wiring new trading habits. Thus, understanding how the brain works is a fundamental mindset skill you’ll need to develop.

The second mindset skill you’ll need to build is what I call the GBT mindset. GBT = getting better today (also known as a ‘growth’ mindset).

growth-mindset 2ndskiesforex

Notice the focus here isn’t ‘profitable trading now‘. It’s a trading mindset that works every single day to get better. By getting better today at your skills, you eventually build enough skills and competence to make money trading.

The GBT mindset is one that is focused on the process, and has a well designed process + skills + goals they are focused on. The process aspect is the methods and plan of action you engage to build your skills, which allow you to reach your goals.

If you’re just focusing on the results “dang, I’m still not profitable yet“, then you’re jumping too far ahead and not focused on what you need to succeed (skills: 1) technical, 2) risk management and 3) mindset). Hence your ‘goal’ right now if you’re not a profitable trader should be to build the skills to make money trading.

This is why you need the GBT mindset, and an approach which focuses on building your skills step by step, and getting better today at your current level of skills. Then once these are sub-conscious, you take on the next challenge.

The third mindset skill you’ll need to build to become a consistently profitable trader is ‘self-awareness‘.

Now I’m not saying you have to become a zen monk to become a good trader. But you’ll need to develop a minimum level of self-awareness to make money trading.

Why?

Because if you really understand how the brain works, you’ll realize you are actually fighting your own brain and evolution to build a successful trading mindset.

How so?

Let me demonstrate this with a few key brain facts:

  1. You have about 500% more neurons for finding the negative vs the positive
  2. You are more likely to choose an immediate reward (even if it is a lesser reward) than delay gratification (for a larger reward)
  3. Your emotions heavily influence how you interpret (and code) an experience, memory or event

Now lets examine these 3 brain facts.

The first one should be obvious as to how it can affect your trading. If you are 5x more likely to notice the negative vs the positive, what do you think that means when you make a mistake, or a trade starts to go against you? How do you think that will affect your thinking in real time when you have to make clear, calm trading decisions? Do you think it will help, or hurt your decision making process?

Ever experienced a trade that was a winner but starts to go against you? Were you totally relaxed, or feeling ‘stress’ when it started to pull back? And do you think that stress affected your analysis and decision making? This tendency to notice the negative vs the positive is called the negativity bias.

What about the 2nd brain fact? Ever chose to exit a winning trade too early? This is your brain working against you. If you’re more likely to choose a lesser immediate reward, don’t you think that will become problematic in making decisions which will lead toward long term success and trading habits?

In terms of the 3rd brain fact regarding emotions, just think about the majority of emotions you’ve experienced in trading. Have they been mostly positive or negative? Have they mostly helped or hurt your trading process, thinking and mindset? Do you even know how to use emotions to your advantage in trading? My guess is no.

Hopefully it is becoming clear why self-awareness is key. You can determine if the self-talk that’s going through your mind is accurate (“something doesn’t feel right about this trade“), misleading (FOMO, fear of pulling the trigger, etc), or not important (“I wonder how many people liked my last tweet”).

By building self-awareness, particularly around trading, you can learn to know when you need to stick to your discipline and/or trust your gut instincts. You can also learn how to self-regulate your mind, emotions and psychophysiology so you can make the most optimal trading decisions.

Simply put, if your biology and psychophysiology is off (heart rate, breathing, skin conductance, etc), the chances of you making a bad trading decision go up exponentially! And more often than not, the difference between making money trading and losing money trading comes down to the trading mistakes you make.

Becoming A Clutch Performer

The term ‘clutch athlete‘ is actually misleading. When the game is on the line, the statistics are clear. The best performers are not performing at their peak, or above their baseline. They’re actually performing below their baseline. The difference is, they make the least amount of mistakes compared to their baseline, while the non-clutch performers make more. This is why specific athletes are clutch, because when the game is on the line, they make the least amount of mistakes, and thus outperform everyone else.

Trading is a peak performance endeavor that is skill based. There is no way around it!

This means you’ll have to learn how to become self-aware when trading gets intense. If you want to make a million dollars trading, you’ll need the 3 mindset skills I’ve listed above when you have 5 or 6 figures on the line.

By becoming more self-aware, you’ll start to build the psychological and mindset skills to become a consistent trader who makes ‘consistent’ trading decisions, regardless of the pressure or challenges you’re experiencing while trading. You’ll be able to direct your cognitive and mental activity in the right direction, while avoiding getting swept up by your emotions, or negative self-talk.

There are many ‘methods’ and practices you can use to build self-awareness. I teach several of these in my traders mindset course. But one method we focus on in our traders mindset course is meditation, which is scientifically proven to help improve your neurological and cognitive performance in a variety of trading activities.

meditation for trading 2ndskiesforex

I’ve been practicing meditation since 2000, done over 10,000 hours of meditation practice. I’ve completed a 1 year meditation retreat. I’ve completed 3 one month retreats, about 150+ weekend meditation retreats, and trained with the same meditation teacher since 2001. Needless to say, it seems fair to say I have a ‘solid’ training in meditation.

I recognized early on how important meditation is to my trading mindset, and thus created a 12 lesson meditation series specifically for traders. The goal of this practice is to build self-awareness, increase your emotional IQ, and help you enhance your brain’s functioning, which meditation has been scientifically proven to do. If you want to learn more about how to use meditation to become a better trader, then check out my traders mindset course.

Now there are many techniques you can use to build a successful trading mindset, but these are three most ‘fundamental‘ I’d highly recommend you focus on. There are other mindset skills you’ll need to complete the first stage of trading (discipline) and get to the fruit (consistency), which could take me an entire book to write and flesh out. But I feel I’ve given you a glimpse of the first stage of trading.

Getting Past the Hardest Stage (*And Not Jumping Ahead)

From my experience in working with thousands of traders, helping many traders become profitable, I’ve seen how every trader which has failed to become a profitable trader has never completed the first stage. They’ve either a) never built the mindset skills to become a ‘consistent’ trader, b) never built the core foundational skills, or c) tried to skip various aspects of both.

From all the students I’ve trained that have become profitable traders, they’ve all completed the first stage without fail. I’ve yet to meet a profitable trader who is able to make money consistently while skipping the first stage. There is no way around it!

Now if you want to learn about the other 3 stages to becoming a million dollar trader, I’m doing a private member webinar this weekend (Dec. 22nd) for all my course members. After the webinar, I’ll be making this webinar available to all my members so they can follow this road map and become consistent traders.

If you want to learn how to become a member, click here.

Now I hope you’ve gotten a tremendous amount of value out of this article, and use it as a guide and road map to your successful and profitable trading.

Please make sure to leave a comment, and share this with any friends or forums you feel will benefit from learning about the stages to becoming a million dollar trader.

Until then, may you see real growth in your trading and mindset.

To make money trading forex (or any market for that matter), you’re going to need statistics to improve your trading performance. When it comes to improving your trading performance, 9x out of 10, you should be choosing data over opinions.

I’ve trained thousands of traders, and often times, the difference between winning and losing money came down to one data point or statistic, and at most 2-3.

In today’s trading article, I’m going to share with you 6 trading statistics every forex trader (and all traders) should know. Let’s jump in…

Trading Statistic #1: You Better Have This

In a highly fascinating study, FXCM did an analysis of traders who had negative risk:reward ratios vs traders who had a 1:1 risk:reward ratio or higher.

For those of you who don’t know what the risk to reward ratio means (risk:reward), it basically measures the money at risk on your trade vs your potential reward. To give a few examples:

  1. If I’m risking $1000 on my next trade, and my take profit is at $1000, then I have a risk:reward of 1:1
  2. If I’m risking $1000 on my next trade, and my take profit is <$1000, then I have a negative risk to reward ratio, meaning I’m risking more than my potential reward
  3. In contrast to that, if I’m risking $1000 and my take profit is $2000, then I have a positive risk:reward ratio of 1:2

Getting back to the FXCM study, they found that trading strategies with a negative risk:reward (i.e. <1:1) had only a 17% chance of making money trading.

Meanwhile, if a trading strategy had a 1:1 risk:reward ratio or higher, they had a 53% of making money (see image below).

risk-reward-profit-stats 2ndskiesforex

Another way to put this is: if your trading strategy has a negative risk to reward ratio, you have a 300%> chance of losing money vs a trader who is using a even or positive risk:reward ratio.

You should now be realizing two important things when it comes to setting profit targets and building a trading strategy:

#1: Make sure you minimally target a 1:1 risk:reward ratio on every trade
#2: DO NOT sacrifice your risk:reward ratio (and take it negative) just to increase your % accuracy

Trading Statistic #2: Risk of Ruin

Originally designed for casino games, the risk of ruin (RoR) is one of the most important trading statistics you need to know. To put it simply, the RoR will mathematically tell you in one statistic whether you are going to make money or blow up your account.

The risk of ruin statistic basically looks at your overall payoff ratio (or Avg.+R per trade), your % accuracy and your % risk per trade. Over a sufficient number of trades (100 or more), you can determine your risk of ruin and know – based on your current trading strategy, whether you will make money, or blow up your trading account.

Below is a table showing the risk of ruin statistics using 1% risk per trade, and measuring various payoff ratios and accuracy %’s.

risk-of-ruin-table-2ndskiesforex

If the box is red, you have a 100% of blowing up your acct. If the box is green, you’re going to make money trading. The number inside the boxes tells you the % chance you will blow up your account.

What you’re looking for in your RoR is 0, meaning you have a 0% chance of blowing up your account. Hence, if you want to make money trading, you’ll need to know your risk of ruin.

NOTE: We have a FREE risk of ruin calculator which you can use by clicking on the link

Trading Statistic #3: Trading Strategy Durability

The durability of your trading strategy is critical. This is because the markets are always in flux, which also means your accuracy %, and thus your performance will always be in flux.

Most profitable trading strategies operate within a range. So if your trading strategy is 60% accurate (on avg.), due to winning and losing streaks, you’re trading strategy is likely to fluctuate in terms of accuracy (~between 50% and 70% accurate).

Hence it’s important to have a strategy that can under-perform, yet still have enough margin of error to make money trading.

Now using the risk of ruin table from above, do you notice any patterns when it comes to profitability? When you go further to the right on the top/horizontal axis increasing your payoff ratio (or Avg.+R per trade), you’ll notice the number of ways you can blow up your account decreases, while the number of ways you can make money trading increases.

Another way of stating this is:

You have more ways to lose money at lower payoff ratios, and significantly less ways to make money trading.

The obvious correlate to this is:

The greater your payoff ratio, the more ways you can make money trading, and thus have a smaller window to lose money.

In short: try to build a trading strategy with a payoff ratio > 1:1. You’ll have a much easier time handling draw-owns and recover faster when you get back on track. And that = more durability.

Trading Statistic #4: Most Beginning Traders Are Poor Learners

Being that we have over 10,000+ students in our trading courses, we’ve been able to collect a lot of statistics on our students, particularly when it comes to trading performance, and how they train.

In deciding to conduct an internal study on how our students train and learn in our online trading courses, we found dozens of fascinating statistics. But one pattern we noticed is that most beginning traders are poor learners and have bad learning habits.

Why do I say this?

When students buy one of our online trading courses, one of the first things they receive is a welcome email. In this welcome email, we explicitly instruct them to watch the welcome video 1st because it contains key information on how the course works, what training models we find best and how to best use our trading methods.

How many students actually watch the welcome video? <20%. And how many students actually watch the lessons in order? 27%. From this, I think we can make the conclusion that most beginning/struggling traders are poor learners.

Now ask yourself this: do you normally just read books out of order in terms of chapters? Do you try to skip belts and skills when training in martial arts or learning to play an instrument? No, so why do you do this when it comes to learning how to trade?

There are many likely reasons, but the lesson should be clear: don’t sacrifice your learning process by letting your impatience win the day. Doing so decreases the chances of you making money trading.

Trading Statistic #5: Proper Risk Management

For my price action course members, they get a free skype analytics session with me whereby I analyze their trading performance over a number of trades, and help them find ways to make more money trading.

Many times, after 1-2 sessions, the student turns profitable. I recently shared an example of this on my twitter account with the student making +11% profit in 2 months.

2ndskiesforex-profitable-traders

Now out of the 1000’s of trading accounts I’ve analyzed from my students, how many of them are using consistent risk management on our first call? <30%!  What I mean by ‘consistent risk management‘ is risking the same % equity per trade.

NOTE: To learn why we recommend a fixed % risk management system, hit that link.

To put it simply: if you’re not risking the same % equity per trade, then you could be risking more on your losses (and thus losing more), while risking less on your wins (and thus winning less).

That is outright masochistic. If you want a surefire way to blow up your account, constantly change the risk % per trade and just do what you want. However, if you want to bypass this avoidable pain and suffering, make sure you have a consistent risk management system and fixed % risk per trade.

Trading Statistic #6: How to Absolutely Fail At Trading

Over the last 12 years, I’ve gotten to review thousands and thousands of my students accounts, statistics and trading performance. I’ve taught many students to make money trading and become consistently profitable traders.

How many of my students were able to make money trading without proper risk and money management? ZERO! No explanation needed.

Hence, if you absolutely want to fail at trading, then just risk what you want without any data, math or statistics to support your decision.

In Closing

If you want to make money trading, you’ll need to know your stats and understand what the data is communicating about your trading performance. There are many ways to get sufficient data and statistics about your trading performance. Two free services you can use are myfxbook and fxblue.

I’d suggest getting your account connected to one of those services and looking at your data to see where you’re at. This will help give you a partial roadmap of how to become a profitable trader.

But beyond getting the stats, most likely you’ll need an experienced trader and trading mentor to evaluate your performance, and give you quantified feedback on how to improve your trading. That + the feedback and guidance they can give you to correct your trading mistakes can often be the difference between winning money, and losing money trading.

If you’d like to get actionable guidance on how to become a better trader, click here to join my price action course, giving you access to me, the members trade setups forum, and over 60 hours of trading lessons to improve your performance.

With that being said, por favor make sure to share your feedback with a comment below.

Until then, may you find real progress in your trading performance and mindset.

This year will mark my 18th year of trading the forex and financial markets. I’ve learned some incredibly valuable trading lessons I wish I had been taught when I first started out. These are lessons which have cost me probably north of $2-3 million dollars in losses, missed opportunities, and making mistakes which took years to figure out (and unwind).

If you’re a struggling trader who’s making the same mistakes over and over again, take heed of these lessons as they’ll save you years in your trading process, and likely well over 6 figures in unnecessary losses.

Hence if you want the fast track to becoming a successful forex trader, learn everything there is to know about these 18 trading lessons. Do this and you’ll find yourself making more money and having greater trading success than before.

Let’s jump in.

1) Invert the Equations Of What Most Are Doing

I have a general formula which I apply to trading and life. That formula is to invert the equation (or process) of what most people are doing.

The bottom line is most people are not successful at trading. In fact, with almost all things in life, most are not in the top 10% of anything they do (job, profession, sports, martial arts, etc).

If that is true (it is btw :-), then most of them are likely following similar patterns and equations for their job, profession, sport, etc, and its NOT WORKING!

trader formula for success 2ndskiesforex

What’s the most common pattern you see with struggling traders? Most are not following their trading plan. Most don’t have a proper risk management profile. Most are spending their time on the charts and strategy, not their skills.

Hence, whatever the majority of people are doing – you’ll have to invert that process & equation. Follow this formula and my guess is you’ll find out how well it works in trading, and life as well.

2) Good Trading Requires Good Trading Skills

Trading is a skill based endeavor. There is no way around it. If you want to make money trading, you’ll have to build the skills necessary to do that month in, month out.

Most traders spend between 75-90% of their time looking for ‘the’ strategy, focusing on the charts, focusing on the next trade and how their going to make money. And most are losing money!

 

Look, it’s quite simple. If you want to play like Mozart, do you start off with the focus of playing like Mozart, or do you focus first on learning the keys, building coordination your fingers, learn to read sheet music, learn how to play chords?

The answer is obvious. You focus on the latter. Those are the core skills of playing piano. Do that, and in no time, you’ll be playing Mozart. Trading is no different.

3) Sim, Then Demo, Then Live

I have a framework for how you should build your trading skills to make money trading. The process is simple.

First, you practice on a trading simulator, focusing on the core skills of price action context. Second, you practice synthesizing those skills on sim, and then start practicing on a free demo account, first finding potential trading opportunities, then trading them on demo. Third, after you’ve built some consistency there, it’s time to go live (starting with a small amount first, then building your acct as you progress).

The formula is simple: Sim, then Demo, then Live.

Do that and you’ll shorten your learning process.

4) Treat Demo Trading Just Like Live Trading

Ever thought to yourself “I can’t get excited about trading demo as there’s no money on the line“? Anytime a struggling trader tells me that, I know that they (right now) don’t have the mindset to make money trading.

Think demo trading is something not to be treated seriously? Think practice is over-rated?

Watch the following video of Michael Jordan on practice and how he related to it. See how intense he is about practice. See how seriously he’s taking it, then compare that to how you’re relating to practice.

As Michael said, “Every day in practice was like a competition to me. So when the game comes, there’s nothing I haven’t practiced before. It’s like a routine. I never feared about my skills because I put in the work. Work ethic eliminates fear.

After watching this video, tell me if you can still justify treating demo as ‘not-important‘. My guess is after watching this video, you can’t.

5) In The Beginning, Use Bigger Stop Losses, Then Decrease Them Over Time

75% of my students who do a ‘Trading Analytics‘ session with me (where I use 20+ metrics to analyze their performance and help them reduce their leaks while increasing profits), have one thing in common. Their stops are too tight.

In the beginning, your goal should be accuracy and consistency. Tight stops in the beginning requires precision. Do you really think you have precision in your trading skills right now? If the answer is no, try widening your stops a bit and see if your accuracy increases. If it does, you’re on the right track, like my student below.

trading analytics 2ndskiesforex

However you cannot always have bigger stops as it will decrease your profitability over time. You’ll be leaving money on the table. So focus on consistency first, then precision later.

6) Preparation is Highly Underrated By Most Struggling Traders

How much do you prepare (mentally) for your trading day? 10 mins? 15 mins? I’m willing to bet 75% of the traders struggling out there spend 15 mins or less preparing for their trading day. Are you one of them?

What’s the most important tools for a Football player? His body and his mind. What’s the most important tool for you as a trader? Your mind (for the most part).

Hence you need that tool (your mind) to be sharp and prepared for your trading day. Treat preparing for your trading day like a professional athlete, then see if your performance (and mindset) increases.

trading preparation 2ndskiesforex

7) Whatever You Don’t Measure, You Won’t Improve On

How many metrics of your trading performance are you measuring right now consistently? My guess is 90+% of you struggling traders out there measure 3 things at most:

#1 – % accuracy for your trading
#2 – account balance at the end of the week/month/year
#3 – how much your account is negative from your original starting balance (or how much you need to get back to break even)

Does this sound accurate?

How many metrics do I measure about my trading performance? About 20, and I can measure them so quickly, it takes me < 15 mins to measure.

Bottom line is, whatever metrics regarding your trading performance you are not aware of, you cannot fix. You have to be aware of your trading mistakes before you can fix them.
But even then, if you don’t take the next step (measuring them), you won’t know what your baseline is, and how you can improve.

And if you don’t know what your baseline is, and what you need to improve on, how do you plan on getting better?

8) Consistency Comes From The Mind

I’m close, but can’t seem to break through. All I’m really needing is a consistent trading strategy and trading plan.” Ever thought that to yourself?

Where do all your trading decisions come from? They come from your mind.

How many times have you written out a trading plan, and not followed it? How many times have you not followed your trading strategy? How many times have you not pulled the trigger when your trading setup comes?

Consistency in trading doesn’t come from the strategy or your trading plan. You won’t experience consistency in your trading till you have consistency in your mind.

Hence if you want to experience more ‘consistency‘ in your trading, you’ll have to wire consistency in your mind.

9) Information Does Not = A Good Trader

How many trading books have you read? How many trading videos have you watched? Probably a lot, yes? Yet you’re still struggling to make money trading. Why is that?

If watching videos, reading books (i.e. taking in information) made good traders, you’d likely be there by now. But you’re not. And that reason is simple.

Information does not = successful habits.

Trading is a skill based endeavor. I’ll take the trader who’s read only one trading book, and watched one trading video, but has practiced the core skills of price action context vs. the trader who’s read 100’s of books, watched 100’s of videos, but doesn’t practice their trading skills.

 

10) Successful Trading Requires A Successful Mindset

To make money trading, you’re going to have to build a successful mindset. This is a mindset which focuses on getting better every single day, regardless if they made money that day or not. This is a mindset which embraces the challenges trading provides.

There is a mindset you’ll need to make money trading. While that mindset is not fixed, there are certain habits and patterns of thinking you’ll need to make money trading. You’ll see these patterns in the best traders of our time.

Hence if you want to make money trading, you’ll need to build the mindset to get you there, and keep you there.

growth mindset vs fixed mindset 2ndskiesforex

11) Trading Can Be A Lonely Venture. Join A Trading Community!

Ever feel lonely in your trading quest? NEWS FLASH: You’re not the only one who feels this. Most traders do.

Anytime I visit traders and students in other cities, they all tell me how relieved they are to realize they’re not the only one having these experiences. There is no university degree in trading. Very few people will ever work at institutions with other traders. Plan on not being that person.

Once you realize this, and that you’re not alone, you also realize how beneficial it is to join a trading community.

I feel really proud on the trading community we have at 2ndSkiesForex as they’re all open, friendly, and really helpful towards others, especially the senior students. We’re all here for the same goal, and we realize how important it is to communicate and interact with others on this journey.

trading community 2ndskiesforex

Why should you try to tackle such a challenging profession as trading alone? Why not join an active trading community that supports your growth as a trader, where you can see others succeeding?

12) Focus on the How vs Focusing on the When

One of the most important mindset shifts you can make in trading is spending more time focusing on the ‘How‘ vs. the ‘When‘. I can always tell where a traders mindset is when they ask the question “how long will it take for me to make money trading?

Would you ever walk into a martial arts studio and ask “how long before I can beat up a black belt?” Would you ever walk into a piano school and ask “how long before I can play Mozart really well?” No, of course not. Not only is there no fixed answer for this, you’re focused on the wrong variable.

The reason why this is such an important mindset shift, is it gets you actively focusing on and directing your energy to the ‘how‘ and ‘what‘ that will get you from point A to B.

The ‘when‘ won’t get you from point A to B. But the ‘how‘ will.

13) Risk Management is the Most Underestimated Skill in Trading

90% of all struggling students who start my trading course have one variable in common. They don’t take risk management seriously and have inconsistent risk on each trade.

Now ask yourself, “How good are you at predicting whether your next trade will win or not?

Most likely, you’re not that good. If you were, you wouldn’t be taking so many losing trades that you ‘knew’ were going to lose now, would you?

There are 2 key points here:

1) you’re likely not that good at predicting your winners and losers (less winners)
2) trading is a game of probabilities and your trading distribution will be mostly random

Hence risk a fixed % per trade so each loss is always the same % of your account.

fixed-percent-equity-risk-model-superior-than-fixed-dollar-amount-graph-1-2ndskiesforex

14) There Is A Difference Between Planting Seeds & Watering Seeds

In April this year, my father passed away. I left within a day of hearing upon the news to spend time with my family and say my goodbyes to my dad.

The day I got back home, I realized how much we all were in the same vision, or spirit regarding our family. I realized this was a ‘window’ for us to make real changes, just like all big moments in one’s life are.

I talked with my family about how this moment was a window, and a great opportunity for us to plant new seeds for our family. But planting seeds is not enough if you want them to fully grow. You have to water them, provide sunlight, and give them proper soil. Do that, and the seeds (which are pure potential) will grow and manifest that potential.

So ask yourself, are you just planting seeds (watching videos, reading books, but not making any real changes)? Or are you actually watering those seeds, taking real actions, working hard every day to get better?

Which trader do you want to be?

15) If You’re Continually Making the Same Mistakes, Seek Training From A Forex Mentor

I could not imagine trying to learn more about becoming a Buddhist and do the meditation practices without a mentor or teacher. I actually did try (back in college) and for the most part, failed.

The same went for my trading. I knew at some point I needed training. I needed someone to provide feedback to me and help me see what I wasn’t seeing. This is something every professional athlete has (a coach or mentor). Why do you think trading would be any different?

If you’re continually making the same mistakes over and over again, you’ll need a mindset and path outside your current one. If your current path, skills and mindset was working, you wouldn’t be repeating the same mistakes over and over again now, would you?

Hence, if the above description sounds like you, get training from a forex mentor (or trading mentor), one that is a verified profitable trader.

chris capre forex mentor 2ndskiesforex

If they cannot (at a minimum) provide one year of verified profitable trading results, then most likely they aren’t a good trader, and most likely aren’t a good trading mentor.

16) To Make Money Long Term, You’ll Have to Get Comfortable With Uncertainty

How do most people make their money? Via a job, yes? A job which pays you a fixed salary on fixed dates. A job which requires you to work fixed hours, wear fixed clothes, and has a lot of fixed rules.

What’s the common denominator there? Everything (by and large) is ‘fixed’ or ‘solid’. You can rely upon that, which has its benefits.

Trading by default completely up-ends that process. The markets aren’t fixed, but ‘fluid‘, constantly changing. Bull trends one day become ranges, pullbacks, or bear trends the next day. You can make $25,000 one month, and lose $2K the next.

What’s the common denominator here? Most things are notsolid‘ or fixed in the markets. And that will totally mess with your brain, and sense of security.

Bottom line is, you’re going to have to get comfortable with ‘uncertainty’ when it comes to trading.

However by becoming a successful profitable trader, you can put the ball back in your court. And that + financial freedom will most likely eliminate about 75% of the every day stresses you experience in your life.

17) Always Wait For Your Price…95% of the time 🙂

If there is a trading lesson I’ve had to learn 100’s of times over, it’s this one. I cannot tell you how many times I got to the charts, noticed a trade setup just happened, and now its moving away from my entry, exactly as I had planned.

Of all the times I chased the trade and price, about 95% of the time, it came back to my price.

This is such an important lesson for 2 main reasons:

1) if the trade does come back to your price, and wins, won’t you be making more money that way? won’t you be losing money if you get in for a worse entry, and it goes against you?
2) what do you think being disciplined, and waiting for your price does to your self-image and trading mindset?

Which one of the above scenarios do you think wins? And more importantly, which one do you want to win with?

18) Your Brain Has The Tools To Make Money Trading, But You’ll Need to Re-wire It

I’m very serious about learning how the brain and mind works. Of the 50+ books I read every year, about 45+ are on the brain, mindset and meditation.

I’ve been studying neuroscience for over 20 yrs since my university days. I’ve spent the last 18 yrs meditating every day, completing a 1 yr meditation retreat and various practice progressions along the way.

There is one thing I’ve learned through all those years. That the brain, and how its wired, has the tools to help you make money trading. It also has the biases to cause you to lose a lot of money trading. Most likely you’ve already experienced this.

Now I’m guessing you’ve heard about cognitive biases? These are mental and neurological structures in your brain + mindset which cause you to make really bad decisions. A few examples:

1) The negativity bias
2) Confirmation bias
3) Fear of Missing Out
etc…

There are dozens of biases you have which will make it really difficult (if not impossible) to make money trading. Luckily, your brain also has a key feature (like hardware in your computer), that allows you to re-wire your brain to make money trading.

This feature is called Neuroplasticity. It’s how your brain can actually change its cellular and neurological structures to form new habits (i.e. habits that will help you make money trading).

What this means is, you have the ability to re-wire your brain to think and take actions like a successful trader.

The key is, you’ll have to re-wire your brain to do this, and that takes methods, applications and work.

You’ll need real practices, methods and training based upon neuroscience, cognitive psychology and a deep understanding of your brain + mind to make these changes.

Luckily this is a real thing, and my profitable students have proven this.

Hence if you want to start making money trading, you’ll have to re-wire your brain to do this consistently. And that only comes with training, practice and hard work.

Now Your Turn

What did you think of my 18 trading lessons? Did you find something valuable here and learn something new? I take my trading, and my mentoring very seriously, so please make sure to share and comment as I want to hear your feedback on this.

In today’s article I’m going to talk about an important subject in forex trading psychology called ‘the comfort zone‘.
Before we get into this important trading and mindset lesson, I’d like to talk about a close relative of mine named ‘Vesh‘.
Vesh recently had his 2nd hemorrhagic stroke in 5 years.
Most people who have two hemorrhagic strokes aren’t very functional. Vesh is definitely an exception.
He was a database programmer for decades, and ironically, after the stroke, can still do database programming.
brain image after stroke
However there are many things he cannot do as a result of his two strokes.
Such as numbers…he’s not that good with numbers any more, and often gets them confused. If he’s talking about something from 100 years ago, he might say ‘Back over 20,000 years ago in England, the British…
To compensate for his brain being damaged, he eats the same thing every day. It’s what he’s most ‘comfortable’ with and makes it easier for him. Man is it easy grocery shopping for him every two weeks 🙂
How does this relate to the comfort zone and trading successfully?
How your brain and body is wired right now is what you feel most ‘comfortable‘ doing. My friend Ross runs 5 days a week, 2 miles a day, so he feels quite ‘comfortable‘ running 2 miles a day 5x per week.
flight runner
However if one day, I came up to him and said, “Today you’re going to run 20 miles, and you’ll do this 3x this week,” Ross is not going to feel very ‘comfortable‘. In fact, he’s going to feel profoundly uncomfortable attempting such a feat.
Just like Ross, whatever is outside of your brain, body and psychology to do comfortably right now is called being ‘outside’ your ‘comfort zone‘.
This is where an article by Noah Kagan comes in. Noah is a highly successful entrepreneur who recently wrote an article called ‘How to Step Outside Your Comfort Zone in 2018′.
It’s a well written article with some simple steps to accomplish this, which I definitely recommend reading.
However he makes one major error in how he defines growth in relationship to your comfort zone.
He says, “growth happens outside of your comfort zone.
While technically true, it’s also ‘false‘ at the same time. Wait, how can something be both true and false at the same time? Let me explain.
Growth in your brain, mindset and body will happen when you go outside your normal programming, or what you’re currently wired to do easily now.
comfort zone 2ndskiesforex
The same goes for you and your trading, and this is why it’s important to go ‘outside‘ your comfort zone, so Noah is correct in saying ‘growth happens outside your comfort zone‘.
However, Noah fails to make an important distinction here regarding your comfort zone.
There is a range you can go beyond this where there is ‘growth’. This range or ‘zone’ has also been discussed by those who talk about ‘being in the zone’ or ‘peak performance’ (image below).
peak performance zone 2ndskiesforex
However, if you go too far outside this zone or range, you won’t grow at all. In fact, you will almost certainly fail.
Hence there is a range you can go outside of your comfort zone and still have growth. This is what I call the ‘challenge zone‘ or ‘learning zone‘.
Asking Ross to do 2.5 miles per day is ‘challenging’ himself.
But asking Ross to run 20 miles today, and he won’t grow. He’ll struggle, experience pain, and most likely will fail.
The same goes for you and your trading (especially if you’re struggling).
Where you are right now in your trading process, there are definitely some strategies, methods or tasks you are just not ready for right now.
For example, if you don’t know how to read the basic pillars of price action context in the forex market, you’re definitely not ready to trade a price action strategy. If you don’t even have a trading plan that you can easily execute day in day out, you’re not ready to trade $10 million dollars.
Hence while Noah was correct in stating that ‘growth happens outside your comfort zone‘, so does failure by going too far outside your comfort zone. Venturing too far outside your comfort zone is what I call the ‘panic zone‘ or ‘failure zone‘ (see below).
comfort zone learning zone and failure zone 2ndskiesforex
You have to make this important distinction (and know the difference) if you want to succeed in trading forex.
I think this is where most struggling traders in their trading process fail. I see many traders taking on methods, skills or strategies they simply aren’t ready for yet.
While I think it’s a good idea to ‘challenge‘ yourself and go outside your comfort zone, going too far will almost always lead to failure.
It’s important to learn what are the various steps, skills and mindset you’ll need to learn along the way so you don’t go too far outside your comfort zone, and set yourself up for inevitable failure.
Thinking you can start making money trading price action without having a trading plan, without proper risk management, or without forex training isn’t a path to success. It’s setting yourself up for certain failure.
This is one of the most common mistakes I see struggling traders and students make.
I get it…you seriously want to succeed in trading forex, you want to work from home, and make more money than you could in any ‘job‘. And you see that I make money trading and am a professional trader.
chris capre verified trading performance 2ndskiesforex
I get it…who doesn’t want to do that? That’s why you’re here, to learn how to trade the forex markets.
But there is a difference between the challenge zone (growing), and failing consistently (failure zone).
If you are constantly losing money trading, and consistently making the same mistakes, most likely you’re going too far beyond your current skill set.
You’re likely in the ‘failure zone‘, which 99+% of the time will lead to you losing money trade after trade, month after month, feeling like you’re not going anywhere.
losing money trading
If you have this feeling, that is actually a good thing, because it’s your self-image and unconscious mind telling you “Hey, you’re too far outside your comfort zone.
If that is your regular experience, then it’s time to get a forex mentor, one with a proven track record of successful forex trading.
Chris-Capres-Verified-Forex-Trading-Results-2017
Hence if you want to stop making the same mistakes day in-day out, month and after month, losing money consistently, then check out my trading course or my mindset course, both of which give you insights into the psychology of successful traders as well as a step by step process on how to trade successfully.
Did I describe your process and trading experience? Does any of this sound like you? If so, I want to hear your comments and feedback below.

successful traders 2ndskiesforex

Without a doubt, this was a successful year at 2ndSkiesForex. As a team – our staff grew, we got smarter and accomplished many goals.

While this type of success is ‘satiating’, what really floated my boat was the students and traders. Many this year after hard work and lots of practice + training broke through.

One student got funded $100,000. Another finally broke through to profitability after blowing up several accounts. And one student did +25% over a 6 month period.

There are many more successful trader stories like this at 2ndSkiesForex. While I’d like to share all our forex success stories, we’ll share a few to start the year on a good note and hopefully inspire you.

Getting Funded $100K after 8 Months

Harkanwalpreet Singh joined 2ndskiesforex in December 2014. You can see his payment receipt + account with us below.

harkanwalpreet singh orders price action course 2ndskiesforex

He is a member of our Price Action Course & in February joined our Advanced Traders Mindset Course.

After 2 months of training diligently, he funded an account for $10K with the AxiTrader Select program.

5 months later he got funded $100K by the AxiTrader program. You can read the article about him getting funded here.

Note how they state he ‘performed consistently during volatile markets and complex trading environments

Below is his email to me about getting funded (click image to enlarge).

harkanwalpreet singh getting funded 100k 2ndskiesforex

Mr. Singh is not a common forex trading success story by getting funded within 8 months. Normally it takes 1-2 years of hard work before you see this kind of result.

Instead of just learning price action strategies and trading techniques, he worked on his trading mindset.

Many struggling traders fall into the trap of just working on one skill – learning price action and making trades.

He realized how important a successful mindset is and did our core mindset techniques for months.

The result is consistent performance, handling volatility, and getting funded $100K.

What I think is unique about Harkanwalpreet is his maturity. Not long after getting funded, some personal family issues came up. He decided to suspend trading till the situation would pass realizing how is mindset was affected.

Instead of just hammering on, he knew when to take a break and not trade. This shows awareness, discipline and maturity.

If he asks, I’ll be there at every step of the way, and may even fund him myself if he continues to perform.

To me his forex story is a great marker of success and I’ll look forward to watching him grow.

Gaining +25% in 6 Months

Nazar Bent is from Canada and joined 2ndSkiesForex back in the summer of 2014. You can see his receipt of our price action course from June that year below.

nazar bent price action course 2ndskiesforex

As a student unhappy with his college studies, Nazar knew from the moment he started trading this is what he wanted to do full time.

Below is his myfxbook account since he started with us.

nazar bent myfxbook acct full 2ndskiesforex

To summarize:

1) in the beginning, he struggled like most traders (red box), but he kept working at it

2) after finding a groove, he started to stabilize (blue box)

3) since February 2015, he’s gained +25% over 6 months (green box)

Below is a zoomed in screenshot from his Feb. trading on.

nazar bent consistent profitable trading 2ndskiesforex

Notice the red box in the middle? This is what happened when trying a new strategy. After giving that up, his gains returned and trading stabilized.

What should be noted is his accuracy + risk to reward numbers. He’s only averaging about 23% for his accuracy, yet is still making money.

Why? Because he’s crushing his +R per trade with his avg. win 184 pips and avg. loss 36.9 pips. This goes to show you don’t need large stops when trading price action.

And his average trade length is < 1 day also demonstrating you don’t need to hold trades for weeks to make good money.

I’ll talk more about accuracy later, but below is his review of us on forexpeacearmy (click image to enlarge).

nazar bent 2ndskiesforex review forexpeacearmy

Notice how he mentions his trading changed when joining us. Also key is how he zero’s in on building a proper mindset and trading psychology.

I feel this is something we excel in with our heavy focus on building a successful mindset and unique approach.

Nazar is one of most dedicated students to becoming a professional trader.  I’ve told him if he keeps it up, I’ll fund him personally.

What is interesting to note is his performance when he opened up a new account for me to monitor. His trading has been mostly flat (see below).

nazar bent 2nd account 2ndskiesforex

He’s openly admitted the psychological pressure of trading for me has affected him. This shows honesty and self-awareness which I appreciate in his candor.

My guess is he’ll break through come 2016 and get back to his typical winning ways.

From Blowing Up Several Accounts to +23% in 4 Months

Shahab might just be the most interesting student & character I have. Before coming to trading, he sold expensive cars to high profile clients around the world.

We’re talking Ferrari’s, Lambo’s, you name it. He’s used to dealing with decent sized numbers of $250K+.

He’s also a risk taker, meaning he’s completely comfortable taking massive risks. This definitely translated into his trading as his swings were massive when he first came to me.

He wasn’t taking trading or training seriously and within 1.5 years blew up several accounts. Trust me – he deserved every dollar he lost during this time and he knows it.

Then he contacted me about really digging in. So in the summer of 2015, we started doing 1-1 mentoring (which is not cheap at $10K per month).

He also lives in Canada and we often go out for tea or lunch, talking trading, mindset and success.

Shortly after, he found a groove trading some of our advanced price action models + his own system.

Here is his myfxbook account below.

shahab503 myfxbook acct 2ndskiesforex

Shahab503‘ is the name of his myfxbook profile. It’s also the name of his account with us below:

shahab account 2ndskiesforex

Now, there are several things that should stand out here from his myfxbook account above:

  1. he’s day trading (done thousands of trades) & continues to have massive swings
  2. he still shows the tendency to go over risk parameters and isn’t as conservative as I’d like him to be. This is an improvement in the right direction from where he was though!
  3. he’s got a lot of open risk (yellow line) which is way outside my normal risk parameters. Again, the key issue of risk and money management keep coming up so this is something he needs to work on
  4. his risk of ruin is just below 1% meaning there is a small chance he can blow up his account at this rate
  5. accuracy is still under 45%, but his avg win vs. loss is balanced enough at +1.3 and he has a positive profit factor over +1

Hence I consider Shahab to be a work in progress. Considering he was blowing up accounts faster than you could drink a pint of cold beer, I’d consider his progression a success.

Do I think he’s in the clear? No, absolutely not as he still has unhealthy habits around risk. But what I’m focused on is his progression instead of just a static number.

He’s not just where he is now, but what he’s becoming. His trajectory is in the right direction and his trend is upward.

How he performs from here is up to him and how much he wants to engage his level of discomfort and discipline. But from where he was, I’m proud of his progress and have positive hopes for him.

A Common Thread

If you noticed, there are several common thread across these success stories. They are;

  1. They all had rough beginnings and losses (like most of you)
  2. They stuck through the hard times and showed mental toughness in trading. This eventually led to a change & breakout in their performance
  3. Accuracy – they all had accuracy levels below 50%.

This last point I want to touch on briefly as it’s a heavily misunderstood subject.

Beginning traders think you need a highly accurate system to make money, but this simply isn’t the truth. There are a million ways to make money with varying levels of accuracy.

Generally the lower the accuracy, the higher the durability of a system as it doesn’t need to consistently win to make money. And let’s be clear, you are going to have losing periods (perhaps months) where you aren’t making any money.

If you system is dependent upon high accuracy, during this losing period you’ll likely experience a massive drawdown. These large drawdowns are psychologically harder to overcome.

Most professionals are between 35-50% accurate throughout all their trades over a year.

My accuracy for 2015 was about 46% but my +R per trade was above 2, so this shows a positive expectancy with proper control of risk.

What Level of Accuracy Should You Expect As A Beginner?

As a beginning trader, you should expect your accuracy to be between 30-50% while learning the ropes (perhaps lower). This is because you are still building your skill set and not trading sub-consciously, so performance will be affected.

Think of it like learning how to shoot a bow and how seldom you’ll hit the center. Yet with practice + training, you can start to get 9 and 10 points more often.

archery hitting target 2ndskiesforex

Hence do not be discouraged if your accuracy is low. Accuracy is not static and fluctuates on a weekly, monthly and yearly basis.

There are days when I’m highly active intra-day and can lose my first 5-7+ trades before hitting my first winner.

Akin to trading, professional poker players can play 40,000 hands before making new equity highs.

What this tells you is drawdowns, losing periods and corrections are natural. The difference is most people do not endure these times and give up or change their strategy.

What they miss is the breakout which comes through training, experience and diligence. Hence try not to look at your current state as your overall numbers. Success is a moving target just like your accuracy.

Be more concerned with progression, trajectory and process.

In Closing

I hope you found these forex trading success stories above inspiring and what is possible. To be clear, these stories are not written in stone. They could go backwards and not make it to the next level.

But they show you what’s possible, why psychological endurance is needed, and how important proper price action training + a successful mindset are to making money trading.

With that being said, will you become the next successful trader story?

Will you get funded $100K this year and start making consistent profits?

If you are looking to be the next forex success story, then check out my price action course where we change the way you think, trade and perform.

Make sure to leave your comments below as I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Until then, may this be a year filled with good health, abundance and success.

Many people come to the forex market with ideas of trading successfully, visions of traveling to postcard beaches, and having all the free time they want. But many do not make it and usually give up before getting to their pot of gold.
Week in-week out I hear from developing traders who say something like, “I really want to be a successful trader, but I’m not finding consistency in my trading. I’ve taken so many courses, read many books, traded so many hours, but I don’t know what I’m doing wrong.”
Anytime I hear this, I ask the following questions;
1) Do you have a trading plan?
2) Are you filling out your journal every day?
3) Do you have set trading times?
4) Do you have a pre-game mental routine where you prepare for your trading day?
5) Using proper Risk Management?
6) Are you filling out your performance journal regularly?
In about 8, maybe 9 out of 10 cases, I usually get the following response, “No, I haven’t been doing any of that.”
For the record, your’s truly has started several things that never culminated in any sort of success, growth or happiness. A great example would be going to the gym regularly 🙂
I definitely understand this experience many of you are going through.
being passionate about trading 2ndskiesforex
Recently I read a blog article by James Clear where he talks about focus when you feel bored. He had asked a coach who trained thousands of Olympic athletes about what they do differently.
The coach responded, “it comes down to who can handle the boredom of training every day and doing the same lifts over and over and over again.”
James goes on to share his take on this:
I think many people get depressed when they lose focus or motivation because they think that successful people have some unstoppable passion and willpower that they seem to be missing. But that’s exactly the opposite of what this coach was saying.
Instead, he was saying that really successful people feel the same boredom and the same lack of motivation that everyone else feels. They don’t have some magic pill that makes them feel ready and inspired every day. But the difference is that the people who stick with their goals don’t let their emotions determine their actions.
First off, James makes a crucial point here how successful people stick with their goals, regardless of the emotions they experience. They do not let their emotions dictate their work, practice, and training.
One of my students shared a great video of Floyd Mayweather Jr., and you can see the resilience in his mindset. He is a winner and sees his training, practice and work to the end.
Imagine if regardless of the successes or failures in trading, of feeling confident or doubting yourself – that you still did the work, and filled out your journal day in day out. That you still kept your risk management tight, went to bed early so you could wake up on time. That you still prepared mentally and did all the steps regardless of the losses from yesterday?
What would this do to your trading mindset?
trading mindset 2ndskiesforex
Imagine how your performance and mindset would change around trading. You would no longer be dependent upon the next win or loss to determine your level of confidence, skill, or how you felt about yourself. This would take you off the roller-coaster rides emotions carry you on.
In all aspects, you’d likely be a different trader, and have a different experience of trading. Food 4 thought.
One thing I do feel James misses, is his assessment on passion and motivation. Yes, successful people in all fields experience some sort of boredom at one point, and they keep working regardless of this boredom.
However, the reason why they stick with their training, work and discipline, comes from their passion and motivation for the process. The coach was saying they have an unstoppable passion – it’s unstoppable because in the face of boredom and the difficult emotions, they use this passion for the process to keep moving forward, to not skip the little details in trading. This is how they don’t let their emotions determine their actions, which is the link I think he misses.
passion for the process 2ndskiesforex
Regardless, some insightful thoughts by James.
But this is the difference between being ‘passionate’ about trading, and being ‘interested’. This is what Kevin Spacey was talking about On Being Successful. Pay attention to where he talks about desire.
People who are passionate about trading will not skip the little details, will make the adjustments over time, will move towards being uncomfortable. They will not be deterred by their emotions, nor let these emotions define them, or their experience. At the end of their trading week, they will be reviewing the tape.
However, people who are ‘interested’, will work hard when it’s easy, but will skip the little things when it gets hard. They will pass over filling out the journal, will not maintain proper risk management, and will let their emotions define their experience. And they will rationalize not doing these things.
The key to being passionate is falling in love with the process, with the challenges you face, is moving towards the areas in trading which make you feel uncomfortable. One could venture to say it’s getting excited about those challenges, realizing what lies beyond that obstacle to your growth.
follow your passion 2ndskiesforex
Going back to our student in the beginning, they weren’t doing any of those things. Turns out they were exhausted from their business, and were trading at random times throughout their day. I asked them how could someone be a good basketball player if they never do the drills, practice free throws, passing, shooting, blocking, etc. He knew the answer, and the same goes for trading.
After making the adjustments with his business and schedule, he was able to finish the month green – his first in many.
There is one crucial point about doing all this extra work and what it does for you mentally, however, I will share this in another article.
But find out where you are on on this scale between being ‘interested’ and being ‘passionate’. This will likely tell you why you are performing the way you are, and how much you are progressing.

Did you know you could have a 50% accuracy ratio for your trading, always have a 2R profit target, and still lose money? Its true, (although its a low probability), but remains true nonetheless. How? Because of two key factors: % account risked and your risk of ruin ratio. At a bare minimum, you have to understand 4 things about your trading to know mathematically if you will make money.

What are those 4 things? That is what this forex money management plan article is going to cover in detail. I will begin by discussing what these 4 things are, and how not knowing them will hurt your account. Then I will describe the risk of ruin formula and why its essential for your trading performance. I will end by sharing a forex money management secret that will impact how you think about money management and risk.

risk and money management 2ndskiesforex

The 4 Things You Need To Know
Any article discussing forex money management plans and performance without discussing risk of ruin is incomplete at best and detrimental to your account at worst

Why?

Because at a bare minimum, you need to know 4 things about your trading to know if you will make money or not. They are the following;

1) Risk to Reward Ratio
2) Accuracy
3) % Risked Per Trade
4) Your Risk of Ruin

Simply put, you could be trading a 1:2 reward to risk ratio, and still lose money. You could know #1 along with your accuracy, and still lose money. You could know your % risked per trade and still lose money. But if you know those three + #4, you can mathematically know whether you will make or lose money.

How?

The Risk of Ruin Formula

What is the Risk of Ruin formula, how does it apply to my trading performance?
The risk of ruin formula is designed to communicate statistically if you will make or lose money trading. You can mathematically know for a fact if you will make, or lose money by knowing your risk of ruin. But you cannot calculate the risk of ruin formula without three key pieces of data. They are:

1) Risk to Reward Ratio
2) Accuracy
3) % Risked Per Trade

Combined together, these above will give you your risk of ruin (ROR). The ROR is a number representing the % chance you will ‘ruin’ your account, e.g. blow it up. Not a pleasant thought, but a highly useful piece of data and essential for your success.

What you want is a 0% ROR (risk of ruin) or a 0% chance of blowing up your account. The inverse of this is you mathematically will make money.

Now remember the first thing I said about how a trader with 50% accuracy always having a 2R reward could still lose money? Let me share why via two risk or ruin tables below.

Trader A Risking 10% of Account Equity ROR Table

Win Ratio % Payoff Ratio 2:1 (2R Profit)
Win Ratio 40% 14.2
Win Ratio 45% 3.41
Win Ratio 50% .813
Win Ratio 55% .187
Win Ratio 60% .0401
Win Ratio 65% 0

Looking at the chart above, by risking 10% of your account equity per trade, having a win ratio of 50% and a payoff ratio of 2:1 (2R per trade), you have a .813% chance of ruining your entire account. Although this is a low probability, it is still a possibility. You actually have to be 65% accurate to mathematically ‘know’ you will make money.

Now lets take the same win and payoff ratios (50% / 2R), reduce the risk per trade to 5% of your total equity, and see how the numbers change.

Trader B Risking 5% of Account Equity ROR Table

Win Ratio % Payoff Ratio 2:1 (2R Profit)
Win Ratio 40% 2.03
Win Ratio 45% .116
Win Ratio 50% 0
Win Ratio 55% 0
Win Ratio 60% 0
Win Ratio 65% 0

In this second table, only those with a 40-45% accuracy have a mathematical chance of losing money. But those at 50% accuracy have a zero % chance of losing money, thus mathematically will make money. What is the key difference? The % risked per trade. This is why it is absolutely critical to your money management strategy to use a % equity risk model, not a meaningless ‘dollar risked per trade’.

Also notice how risking 5% per trade instead of 10% drastically changed the accuracy levels needed to make money? Trader A needed a 65% accuracy level to be certain they could make money, while Trader B only needed a 50% accuracy level – a 10% difference!

It should also communicate an essential point;
Any forex money management strategy article or website talking about trading without mentioning the above, is giving you totally incomplete information about money management which could kill your account. In essence, you could be trading blind to the numbers which hugely determine your success or failure in trading.

A critical piece of information? Absolutely. Something you’d want to know? I’d certainly hope so.

trading insight 2ndskiesforex

One Last Point (A Secret About Money Management)
There is one thing almost never talked about when discussing trading money management strategies. It is a huge point why working with a % equity model is far superior to ‘dollar risked per trade’. And it has to do with your mind.

If you are setting the risk per trade based on a ‘dollar value’, that dollar value actually means more to your mind (and thus emotions) than an ‘neutral’ % of your account. Why? Because you spend money in terms of dollars (or euros, or whatever your local currency is), not %’s of your account.

So if you are making a trade, and thinking ‘Oh, I’m going to risk $5,000 on this trade‘, that very thought of ‘$5,000’ can (and most likely will) conjure up a host thoughts about rent, bills, car payments, or a wave of other things.

These thoughts are far more likely to engage any fears you have about the ‘dollars you are risking per trade‘ than a neutral 1 or 2% which has ‘no reference‘ to how much you spend, may need, or what it could buy.  In essence, there is no ‘trigger‘ in your mind about % risked per trade, but there certainly is about the ‘dollars risked per trade.’

By shifting your trading money management strategy and trading mindset towards a % equity model, your mind will be more focused on the actual trade. This is opposed to dealing with the thoughts ‘Oh, that $5,000 is a lot of money to me. I’m about to risk $5,000 which could pay for my rent, my mortgage, or my debts‘.

This mind trick actually helps to reduce the emotional triggers when trading, thus leaving your cognitive mind less burdened with thoughts of the money, and more focused on the trade. This is a huge reason why a % equity model is far superior from a trading mindset perspective than a ‘dollar risked per trade’ model.  Food for thought, but I hope this clarifies the huge advantages and information available when thinking about forex money management in terms of a % equity of your account.

The Rosy Picture
I know the idea of being a professional trader will seem like a rosy picture, but the fact of the matter is you are going to face some tough times as a trader. You will have to do many things to be a successful and professional trader (or successful/professional anything for that matter), but the most crucial things you do will be the little things in the big moments of time.

Bottom line is – you will have to deal with making mistakes that cost you money, and a lot of it. You will have to deal with some really tough losses, whether they be 4, 5 or 6 figures. Yes, you can make 5, 6 or 7 figures, but that will be totally dependent upon you remaining completely focused, confident and disciplined while you are going through the good times, as well as the really tough ones.
roadmap to success forex trading 2ndskiestrading.com you will have to do this trading
In Trading…
You will have flat periods, draw-downs, losses (perhaps several in a row), but regardless of what you face mentally, emotionally, or physically, you will have to keep proper money management.
You will likely have to take a trade shortly after getting hit by the market only minutes before. You will have to deal with getting stopped out by a pip or two, only to see the market move 100+ pips towards your target. You will have to be patient and sit on your ass, even though you want to get in.
And you will have to do all of this while the market is moving in real time, while there are large profits to be made, while your emotions are working completely against you, while you are experiencing fear, or worry, or impatience, or frustration, or absolute un-clarity.
making tough decisions in real time forex trading 2ndskiestrading.com
You will have to make tough decisions in real time that may not be so evident as they unfold before you in a live trading environment.  It is very easy and completely common to miss the best setups happening in real time, that follow your rules, or your price action system, because in real time all of the toughest things about trading are present.
The Mountain
I know it may seem like you are pushing up against something larger than yourself, like you are moving a large boulder up a mountain, but you are actually pushing up against yourself – not the market. There is a powerful, self-reflective & insightful quote from Sir Edmund Hillary (1st to ever reach the summit of Mt. Everest) which goes;

“It is not the mountain that we are conquering, but ourselves”

 
This is exactly what trading is, as you are not conquering the market – but yourself.
climbing mt everest conquering the market 2ndskiestrading.com you will have to do this trading
Safe Distance & The Monday Morning Quarterback
Hindsight is a free zone, a safe distance to evaluate things as there is no emotion involved, with no live triggers to activate your unconscious or limiting beliefs. When you look at a trade after the fact, there is always clarity, and it looks like the setup was literally put on a golf tee just waiting for you tee off.

golf tee price action setup hindsight 2ndskiestrading.com you will have to do this trading

However, the reality in trading is, the clarity so available in hindsight is often barely present when trading in real time.
You wouldn’t believe how many ‘authorities‘ or ‘masters of all things price action‘ (ironic considering no peer calls them that), talk about all these great setups after the fact.
They boast how it was ‘widely discussed in their members forum’ only to find out it never was & they never traded it themselves.  This is despite the fact it was an ‘obvious’ pin bar setup, or engulfing bar setup, or some other ‘obvious‘ thing they didn’t trade, but lauded after the fact.
Anyone can be a Monday morning quarterback, but can they be a trader in real time is the question. This is why lately I have been almost weekly posting my actual setups herehere, here, here, here, and here of how I traded them in real time.
This is with all the success and mistakes made while managing that live trade, with my actual entry and exit from the brokers chart, based on all the thoughts, emotions and decisions that are involved in them.
Actual Trades
If they’ve only shown you one trade in the last year, or a few in the last few months, without actually even showing you the entry and exit from their broker chart – then run away as they are hiding from the fact they do not trade. They should also be showing you successful trades from their students which you can find here, here, here, here, and a ton more here.
live price action trade gbpjpy chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com
But make no mistake, there are many things you will have to do while trading, particularly managing, and managing two things which require practice and precision to do well.  They are;
1) Managing Risk
2) Managing Your Emotions
Hopefully you already have a set of rule based systems that you follow to get in and out of a trade, so there is little management in that part. It is the two listed above that require most of your mental/emotional/psychological management and capital.
In Summary
To repeat, you will have to endure tough times as a trader, with some tough losses, flat periods, draw-downs, making expensive mistakes.  And you will have to do this while not investing all of yourself and success / failure in the last trade.  You always have to be trading and thinking in probabilities.
Losses are inevitable, but how you deal with them is not. If you can learn to remain focused, confident and disciplined – regardless of what just happened in the last few minutes, hours or days, then you can find yourself back towards a winning trade. But more importantly, you can experience first hand a valuable lesson, which can pick you up after you fall, carry you towards winning trades, and feed your trading career for a lifetime.

The A+ Setups, The Trades That ‘Kick You In The Chin’

There is one mistake I see beginning traders constantly making. They wait on the sidelines for days, waiting for A+ setups, waiting for setups that ‘kick them in the chin‘, or ‘knock them over the head‘.

If you need to get kicked in the chin or knocked over the head to act, perhaps you should consider MMA, not trading. If you need this to actually do something – you really are missing the most basic thing of being a successful trader.

Your job is not to sit there like Johnny Bench waiting for the delivery of the perfect pitch.  Your job is to think in probabilities, to think in numbers and expectancy.  This is one advantage for becoming a better trader by learning how to play poker.

poker playing probabilities trading 2ndskiestrading.com

 
Positive Expectancy
In poker, they have this rule about positive expectancy.  It basically involves not waiting for your power hands to arrive before you play. You should [pay your medium strength hands in the right environment because they have positive expectancy.
Sure, you can wait for AA or AK suited before you get involved in the pot, but you are passing up many hands that make money in the long term.  You are passing up hands that have positive expectancy.   This doctrine about waiting for A+ setups is a fallacy espoused by people who really do not understand trading. It is important to remember trading is not a fashion contest.
Trading is thinking in probabilities and finding setups that make money over 100, 1,000 or 10,000x.
You have to understand, that you may not make money on the trade right now, or even the next one, but if it makes money over the long run (has positive expectancy) then you need to pull the trigger.
professional forex trading thinking in probabilities 2ndskiestrading.com
 
Beginning Traders vs. Professional Traders
Beginning traders make the mistake of waiting for setups which have 60 or 70+% accuracy, trading at 1:1 or 2:1 reward to risk ratios. Sure…mathematically these will make money, but guess what – did you know you could have a system which is 35% accurate which still makes money (and a lot of it) over time?
Although losing 65 trades out of 100 may seem daunting, a professional trader doesn’t skip these trades – because they know they make money.  This is the difference between a beginning trader and a professional – they think in probabilities.  They are comfortable with uncertainty, because they trust the process.
 
Breaking It Down
To look at it mathematically, if you take 100 trades at 35% accuracy, you win 35 and lose 65.  Now if you always target 3x your risk (meaning if you risk 50 pips, you target 150 pips each time), this system will make money. Although you may lose the next 6-7 trades, all you need to do is win 3 or more, and you’ll make money over those 10 trades.
This is the difference between a professional & beginning trader. They understand the risk of ruin principle, and are not worried whether they will win the next trade. Beginning traders rationalize losing the next 6-7 trades as being bad for their overall trading, when mathematically you can still make money.
 
What Separates Beginning Traders from Professional Traders
Professional traders are not worried about the next trade winning or losing. What they care about is making money long term and over time.  They want to maximize their profits by playing the mathematics – by thinking in probabilities.

professional forex trading chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com

Although beginning traders hang their entire psychology, confidence and performance on the next trade – you have to look at the next one as just one free throw in the thousands you will make over time.
 
A Single Grain of Sand & Your Positive Sloping Equity Curve
One way to relate to an individual trade is to see how really unimportant one trade is in the grand scheme of things.  A good visual for this is – if you are currently holding a hand full of sand you picked up from the beach – that each trade is like a single grain of sand.
If you are using proper risk management and thinking in probabilities, that one grain of sand is really insignificant. Put them all together, and it adds up to something more substantial, but by itself, it really means very little.
Now imagine your positive upward sloping equity curve over the next few years, with hundreds of trades per year under your belt. That one grain of sand really means nothing in the entire equity curve of profitability.  It’s just a tiny data point in a very large set.

profitable equity curve professional forex trading 2ndskiestrading.com
After a Long Trading Career

If you can really grasp this, I guarantee after you have a long trading history with hundreds (if not thousands) of trades under your belt, one little trade will not mean anything to you.  But what will matter, is if you pass up trades that have positive expectancy with lesser accuracy, you may lose massive profits over time.

Thus make sure to let go of whether the next trade will be a winner or a loser.  Try not to invest too much energy in this.  Start to think like a professional, and pull the trigger whether your next setup has high or low accuracy.  If your price action strategy has positive expectancy, then that is what you need to know.  When you do, you’ll realize a huge piece of the missing puzzle as you’ve started to think like a professional, and started to think in probabilities.

There seems to be some fascination with newer/beginning traders to find this perfect setup, this small set of circumstances that give price action the appearance of a great trade opportunity. You’ve probably heard about these patterns and setups before, often referred to as Pin Bars, Engulfing Bars, Inside Bars, etc.

Beginning traders become hypnotized, thinking these price action patterns are all you need learn to trade the market, as if trading were a fashion contest, and your goal is to find the best dressed setup.

The problem is, this is a really confined view as these patterns are more often the result of order flow – not the cause of it.
 
A Means, Not the Reason
These price action setups discussed above, are a means to get into the market, not the reason why you should be. And it’s often the case, they are the secondary reason why you should be entering the market.
The reason why you should be getting into the market, is because your understanding of the price action & order flow in the overall market, gives you an over-weighted picture as to a clear direction in the market.

This direction could be for 20 minutes, hours, or even days.  The amount of time it will likely maintain that direction is not important.  That the price action gives you an over-weighted picture of the direction IS!

And when this happens, there is a trade opportunity.  If that opportunity offers you a good mathematical reward/risk play, then you should be trading it – not because of some picture perfect setup.

trading is not a beauty contest 2ndskiestrading.com jan 21st

 
Trading is Not A Fashion Contest
How many times have you seen a picture perfect setup that completely failed?  I’m willing to bet dozens of times, and if you trade long enough, hundreds or thousands of times.
Why is that?
Because trading is not a fashion contest where you are looking for the best dressed setup.  Because price action setups can and will fail, which should communicate to you – not to become fascinated with finding the perfect price action setup.
What it should mean, is you want to develop your ability to read the overall picture of the market, understand the order flow behind it, learn to read the impulsive and corrective price action.  Then, look for an over-weighted scenario.  Once you find it, check the math to see if it’s favorable.  If so, then take the trade.
 
Missing High Quality Signals
If you are always on the hunt for the perfect setup or trade, you will likely be completely missing high quality signals passing by right in front of you.
The greatest mistake of higher time frame traders is they often do not take great trades that are right in front of them, because they are waiting for the ‘perfect‘ setup – one that will hit them over the head.
The problem is in passing up these trades, they are also passing up high quality signals that offer a mathematical edge and profits.

missing good trade opportunities

Ironically, the greatest fallacy of intraday traders is they will often take trades that are not there, or not of high quality.  Although it may seem like the former is better than the latter, both are the same!
The higher time frame trader makes a lot less profit because they pass up really high quality signals, looking for their perfect match.
Meanwhile, the intraday trader while often having more profits, generally has slightly more losses, because they are taking trades that are not there.  Their upside is higher for executing their edge more, but the extra losses pull them back.
Thus, when you really see this clearly, these are two sides of the same coin!  The trick is to find the balance and wisdom of the two, not to stay on one side of it.  This is the knot of trading you have to untie.
 
A Fantasy World
Spending your time looking for the perfect setup is living in a fantasy world.  It’s like looking for the perfect partner – how many people have you really met that have one? How many people have you met thought they found one, & were completely wrong? Food for thought – but trading is not a fashion contest, and it’s not about looking for the perfect setup.
 
Same Setup – Different Result
There are many times several of my price action traders spot the same exact setup, yet end up with completely different results.
How could that be?

same setup different results 2ndskiestrading.com

Because they managed the trade differently. One took profits a little early (but still ended up profitable), while the other caught a huge portion of the move.
Although it may seem like this one trade may not mean much – it means a lot if its repeated.
When trader A encounters a series of losses (and you will, regardless of your strategy), their downside will be more severe and they will take more time to recover.  However when trader B encounters the same downside period, their recovering will be faster, because they padded on more alpha to their trading account.  For them, it only takes a few large wins to erase a lot of losses.
Keep in mind, they both spotted the ‘perfect price action setup‘, yet they both had different levels of profits.
What was the difference?  In how they managed the trade.
This should be communicating to you, what is far more important than finding the ‘perfect’ price action setup, is learning how to manage the trade.  And this really comes down to three things;
1) Understanding Risk Management
2) Learning to Read Price Action In Real Time
3) Managing Your Emotions/Mental State
bells ringing in your head 2ndskiestrading.com
Perhaps you can find the perfect setup, but fail to do the three above, & your perfect setup is powerless to deliver consistent profits.  Bells should be going off in your head now about what you should be spending your time studying.  It’s not how to spot a pin bar, or engulfing bar, or some other magical bar.  It’s about setups, price action and context.
These pin bars, engulfing bars, or any bars are easy to find, and take little mental effort.  The learning process for this should be short.
But the learning process for the three things I listed above prior, should be never-ending.
I understand why many of you have made this mistake.  There are these so called ‘authorities‘ and ‘masters‘ (notice self-labeled as no peer will call them that), who claim you only need 3 of these ‘setups’ to understand the market.  That these great setups only occur on higher time frames, that intraday price action trading is to be loathed, that accuracy and profitability has a linear relationship with time frames.
Ah yes, and don’t forget the three golden setups – how convenient!  As if a market with over a million participants, composed of retail & institutional traders, hedge funds, banks/brokers, pension funds, HFTs, intraday traders, swing traders, long term position traders, etc. are all subdued by these overlords of price action patterns.
High quality signals occur on every time frame, and there are profitable traders across the world trading on almost every time frame.  Intraday price action trading is not to be loathed – that is just a personal feeling of some, while a ATM machine for others.
Who is right?  Neither – thus don’t hate intraday trading because it doesn’t work for you. The greatest mistake a trader can do, is to think their world and thoughts about reality – ARE REALITY!  As if your wisdom and insight is so brilliant, so total, so complete, that it has a monopoly on the truth about trading.
Does that sound reasonable to you?  Or does it seem more likely there are many ways to trade successfully, and the best way is what’s comfortable for you.
Just remember, what may be comfortable for you, may not be for another, and neither one individually is reality by itself.

obi wan kenobi 2ndskiestrading.com

Heed the wisdom of Obi-Wan Kenobi who once said, ‘Only a Sith sees in absolutes‘. Don’t be the Sith in trading, or follow a Sith.
Find wisdom in things, then find what is most comfortable for you, while constantly challenging yourself to take things to the next level.  Rarely ever where you start this journey (both in trading and in life) is where you end up.  Thus remember, trading is not a fashion contest, but it is about managing risk, your mental state, and learning how to read and trade price action in real time.