Tag Archive for: silver

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Forex Trade Idea: NZDJPY – Breaks Key Support Zone, Looking to Sell (4hr chart)

Price Action Context

On our youtube channel last week we talked about the NZDJPY forex pair and how we were bearish looking to sell.

To open the market this week, the NZDJPY forex pair sold off aggressively opening below the major support zone between 66.33 – 66.63 printing below the 66 handle.

I’m looking to sell on a pullback into resistance.

nzdjpy

Trending Analysis

ST & MT bearish while below 67.75 on a weekly closing basis.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 66.63, 67.99

S: 63.45, 60.45

Stay tuned on this with our members market commentary for updates.

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Commodity Trade Idea: Silver – Weaker Than Gold, But Holding Key Support Level (daily chart)

Price Action Context

Since August of last year, Silver has been holding steady above a key support level at 16.54. 

This level was tested last week after a brutal 4 day sell off in the precious metal from just under 19 to 16.54 in 4 days. 

The PM held and has bounced decently, showing through the price action and order flow the bulls are able to hold (for now).

I’m looking to stay long MT till we get a close below this level on a weekly closing basis.

silver major support level 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST bullish and MT neutral while stuck between 19.50 and 16.54.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 18.63, 19.59

S: 16.54, 15.75

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Stock Trade Idea: United Airlines ($UAL) – Looking to Sell Below Key Support (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

As we talked about in our latest article “Is the stock market going to crash“, we suggested selling airlines due to the coronavirus spreading and that travel/entertainment companies would get hammered.

If you had shorted any of the travel/entertainment companies like we suggested, you would have profited heavily from this.

Nothing has abated with the coronavirus and naturally, less people are flying and travelling.

This bodes really bad for airline companies, including United Airlines ($UAL).

Right now we’re just barely above a major support level around 49.69, but if this breaks, then there isn’t much below till 40 so a potential stock trade setting up.                                                                                            

united airlines stock trade idea 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST & MT bearish. Weekly close below 49.75 will increase the bearish pressure and a potential move towards 40.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R:57.9, 80

S: 49.69, 39.9

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Chris Capre’s current live open price action & ichimoku trades: USDMXN, EURRUB, EURMXN, BIG, DIS, AC, ISD

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Forex Trade Idea: EURGBP – Potentially Breaking 2 Year Corrective Structure (weekly chart)

Price Action Context

Since the summer of 2016, the EURGBP forex pair has been trading inside a large corrective structure between 8300 and 9300.

While the pair bounced off the structural support level around 8300, the pair didn’t manage any material upside gains, climbing no higher than the mid-85 handle.

I’m suspecting a break of this key support level soon, which would open up the pair to some technical selling and a potential move towards 8080.

eurgbp corrective structure 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

MT neutral while inside the large corrective structure, ST bearish.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 9042, 9300

S: 8300, 8080

Stay tuned with our members market commentary for updates.

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Commodity Trade Idea: Silver (XAGUSD) – CT Corrective Structure, Looking to Buy (daily chart)

Price Action Context

Holding above the role reversal level at 16.54, Silver (XAGUSD) has stayed mostly buoyant above the RRL and hitting a yearly high of 18.81 before falling back.

Looking at the chart below, the selling pressure is weak and inconsistent, forming a CT (counter trend) corrective structure.

With the bounce off of 16.54 being highly impulsive, and the pullback corrective, I’m suspecting the next leg is more likely to the upside, and am looking to buy.

silver corrective structure 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

ST bearish while inside the corrective structure, MT bullish while above 16.54 on a weekly closing basis.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 18.66, 19.56

S: 17.36, 16.54

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Stock Trade Idea: Tesla (TSLA) – Parabolic & Exhaustion Price Action, Potential Sell Setup (4hr chart)

Price Action Context

After creating one of the mother of all short squeezes, Tesla has gone parabolic, climbing from 424 to start the year, rip-roaring up to an all time high of 965 by the 4th of Feb.

When you look at the price action in the chart below, you can clearly see it went parabolic, however the price action is showing signs of exhaustion.

For bulls, the stock has been holding the daily 20 ema, but now that the 965 is a part of history, the 2nd time around, it should act as resistance, potentially offering a sell setup.

tesla stock trade idea 2ndskies

Trending Analysis

ST & MT bullish while above the daily 20 EMA and 683 on a weekly closing basis.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 965, 1000

S: 683, 542

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Chris Capre’s current live open price action and ichimoku trades: USDJPY, AUDCAD, SLV, AUS200

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Silver – Trying to Breakout, ST Bullish, But Needs to Clear Resistance (1hr chart)

Price Action Context

Gaining heavily over the last several weeks, Silver formed a wide corrective structure between 15.90 and 16.63 for the last month. However, the precious metal is forming a series of higher lows, putting pressure on the bears in the ST resistance zone between 16.54 and 16.64.

silver breakout trading 2ndskiesforex

Trending Analysis

For now, I’m ST and MT bullish, but I’d like to see the PM break through the short term resistance and stabilize above 16.63. If it can do that, I favor the probabilities it continue it’s ST bull run.

Key Support & Resistance Levels

R: 16.54, 16.64
S: 15.90, 15

Today’s price action tip article is designed to give any beginning, or non-profitable trader, 2 critical tips to help accelerate your learning curve and avoid the pitfalls almost everyone falls into.  If you can learn to follow these two beginner forex trading tips, then you will find yourself making more winning trades, along with less mistakes that tend to get you in trouble.

Trading is already hard enough, regardless of your level, so integrating these two tips will help you to make more winning trades.

Tip #1:  Trade Only When The Price Action & Direction Is Clear
Although this may seem confusing for the beginner, as price action rarely seems clear, there is actually a simple model to determine whether the price action and direction is clear.

The model I use daily to determine the direction/clarity of the market is looking for impulsive price action moves.  To briefly sum it up, impulsive price action is when the institutional players (those that move the market) are either heavily buying or heavily selling the market.  You can spot these moves by three simple characteristics;

1) The bars are quite large

2) They are mostly one color

3) They have closes towards the highs or lows (in the direction of the move)

When you see these three things, you almost always have an impulsive move.  And when you have an impulsive move, those that move the market are predominantly pushing it in one direction, which is the direction you want to trade with.  When you can find the correct direction, and trade it, you give yourself the greatest probability of making money.

An example of some impulsive moves are below, and you will see when looking at the chart, you will definitely want to be trading in that direction.

Silver 4hr Chart
impulsive price action 3 tips for beginning traders 2ndskiestrading.com

Looking at the chart above, you will see two colors of boxes; White and Green.  If you look at all the white boxes above, you will all notice they have the three characteristics of impulsive moves described above.

Compare them to the green boxes – these have the opposite of the 3 characteristics of impulsive moves. These are called corrective moves, and for beginning traders, they should be avoided as a whole.  When in doubt, if you do not have a clear market or impulsive moves, avoid trading.

Often times for beginning traders, finding the right direction is difficult, and it seems like you tend to find the opposite side of the move.  By learning to only trade with impulsive moves and the price action is clear, you are saying to yourself, ‘I’m only going to fish when the easy fish are around’.

Tip #2:  When Trend Trading – Best to Buy or Sell When the Prior Bar Closes in Your Direction
This is a general rule I suggest to use until you get really good at trading trends.  The reason for this is simple;

a) If you are looking to buy in an uptrend, you have a greater chance of being correct when the last bar to close, closed bullish.
b) If you are looking to sell in a downtrend, you have the greater chance of being correct when the last bar to close, closed bearish

If you think about it – when looking to buy in an uptrend and the last bar closed bullish, it is a confirmation for the last candle (and time), the bulls were in control.  This bullish close is more likely to inspire bulls the trend is still alive.

Contrast this to buying when the bears demonstrated control on the last bar.  This means they dominated the order flow for that bar, and may be pushing against your orders.  This increases the chance the bulls will take profit after seeing a bear bar as opposed to a bull bar (continuation).

However, if the bulls demonstrated control on the last bar, then they are likely still present pushing the market in your favor, so this gives you a greater probability to have follow through on your trade when you enter the market.

Two examples are below.

GBPJPY 4hr Chart
pullback low pbl price action chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com

In this chart, we clearly have an uptrend, which offers a couple of with trend pullbacks.  In these pullbacks, you will see two PBL’s (Pullback Lows), which led to a breakout of the prior SH (Swing High) for the trend. You will notice in both of them, the low for the pullback was a bull candle, and the follow up price action was a strong series of bull candles to follow.

Another example is in the chart below on the EURJPY 4hr Chart
price action pullback low pbl chris capre 2ndskiestrading.com

In this chart, we have 3 major with trend pullbacks, and in two out of three of them, the PBL’s had a bull bar at the bottom, also demonstrating this principle.  As a general rule, bulls will feel more confident buying a pullback (or breakout) in a trend, when the last bar closed bullish. This is a stronger communication the bulls have been able to take control of the price action and order flow for the last bar.

In Summary
Trading is already challenging enough, and finding the right direction is one of the most crucial aspects to making good trades. In the beginning, you already have enough to think about, so try to keep it simple, and trade when the direction is clear.  Look for impulsive price action moves as much as possible, and when you find them, trade in that direction.

However, when the price action is not clear, try to stay out until a clear signal and market emerges.

When trend trading, you have a much better chance in the beginning, if you buy/sell when the last bar closes in your direction.  This closing in your direction is a clearer communication from the market, the bulls/bears are more likely in control, and in your favor.

I hope these two beginner forex trading tips help you.

To learn more price action techniques and systems, make sure to check out my price action course where I have a large community of traders, posting live trade setups daily, and I teach them how to read and trade price action.